- Hubert Walas
We are past the 430th day of the Russo-Ukrainian war and on the eve of one of its most important events - the biggest Ukrainian offensive of the year. Apart from the battle for Bakhmut, where Wagner is still trying to take the town, the front remains essentially frozen. The situation resembles the calm before the storm.
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Kharkiv Direction
There have been no significant recent developments in the Kharkiv region. As expected, Russian ground attacks have been limited to Hrayanykivka, Masiutivka and Krohmalne.
We still see no signs that the situation in the area is changing. Russian formations in this part of Ukraine are based on the 6th Combined Army, the weakest and least developed of the Russian ground forces before the war. In fact, out of all directions, the Russian military leadership continues to deprioritise the Kharkiv Oblast.
Kyiv could benefit from such development, but at the same time there are no visible attempts to shape the battlefield in the Kharkiv region or efforts to significantly increase the Ukrainian presence in the region. The proximity of the state border and the threat of an attack on the Ukrainian flank further reduce the chances of a Ukrainian advance in this part of Ukraine.
Also from Russia proper came the first major missile attack on targets in Ukraine since early March. After a 50-day break, Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers fired 23 cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea at central, eastern and southern regions of Ukraine. Kiev claimed that the attack targeted areas where Ukrainian reservists are concentrated. Twenty-one missiles were intercepted. On Sunday evening the Russians carried out another strike. This involved 18 cruise missiles, 15 of which were reportedly shot down.
Nevertheless, the continuation of the Russian campaign is unlikely to have a significant impact on the situation on the ground. Not only are the strikes too small and too rare, but Ukrainian anti-aircraft defences are too effective, especially when the attacks are small. Last week, the Ukrainians shot down 91 and 83 per cent of incoming missiles, or in other words, of the 39 missiles fired, only five got past the air defences, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Even if these missiles had reached their intended targets, it is unlikely that they would have caused significant damage.
Luhansk Direction
The front line in the Luhansk direction remains frozen and all major Russian attacks have been repulsed.
A few attacks were made on the Svatove axis, but most of the action took place along the Ploshchanka - Bilohorivka line. In this area the Russians concentrated on Makiyivka, Torske and Newske. However, despite daily attacks, they made no new territorial gains.
According to Serhiy Cherevaty, spokesman for the Eastern Group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Lyman-Kupyansk direction remains the most heavily shelled region of Ukraine. It is estimated that the Russians are shelling Ukrainian positions an average of 450 times a day. However, this has not translated into any battlefield successes in the area, as the front line in the Serebrinsky Forest and around Dibrova has not changed.
Donetsk Direction
Bakhmut remains the main target of Russian troops but still isn’t fully conquered. However, Kremlin forces are gradually increasing their control over the town. At this stage, around 75 per cent of the city is under Russian control.
At the end of April, the Russians reached the intersection of Tchaikovsky and Yubileyna Streets. They captured the Industrial Vocational School, giving them control of the main entrance to the city, both from Ivanivske and Khromove.
Much of the fighting still falls on the Wagner group, whose leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, constantly complains about a lack of ammunition. He recently said that if the situation will not change, "Wagner will either withdraw or stay and die". Still, it must be remembered that Prigozhin's previous threats to withdraw Wagner or to liquidate the organisation as a fighting force have not materialised. As a result, given the discrepancy between rhetoric and action on the ground, we see no reason to expect a change in operations in Bakhmut or Wagner's withdrawal from the city. The group will continue to advance towards the western parts of Bakhmut. As a result, there is a sizeable chance that the city will fall later this month.
As for other areas - in general there have been no changes in the Werchnokamyanske and Vyimki locations. According to a Ukrainian source, Akhmat troops (Chechen fighters) are occupying a compressor station near Spirne. The fact that the Russians carried out offensive operations near the village, followed by a reported Ukrainian counter-attack, suggests little change in the front in this sector.
The front remains stable in Vasiukivka, Fedorivka, Rozdolivka and Vesele. The Russians also made no progress in the Soledar area. They continued to attack Ukrainian positions in the Khromowe area, but did not approach road 0506. Thus, the Ukrainians appear to have stabilised the situation in the area and the threat of permanent Russian control of the road has dissipated.
The Ukrainians reportedly counter-attacked near Krasnohorivka, but no further information was given. However, according to a Russian journalist, Russian troops pushed back Ukrainian units from the H20 motorway near Novokalynove.
There was no change in the Mariinka area, where the Russians attacked the southern and northern outskirts of the city and towards Pobieda. Russian attempts to approach Avdiyivka also failed. In the Wremivka area, Ukrainian troops reinforced their positions near the Wremivka - Velyka Novosilka line.
Zaporizhia Direction
The situation in the Zaporizhia region remains relatively calm, although it is a calm that heralds something is yet to come.
The Russians continue to express concern about the build-up of Ukrainian forces in the region. Earlier this week, a Russian source claimed that Kyiv could launch an offensive near Orikhiv, targeting Vesele. He also claimed that the Ukrainian armed forces were facing shortages, particularly of mobile air defence systems. As a result, in the event of a large-scale offensive, there is a high risk that they will be heavily overrun by Russian air power.
The source claimed that elements of the 116th and 118th Mechanised Brigades of the 10th Army Corps had reached the area of Odarivka, Tavriiske and Slavne. He also claimed that these units would be tasked with making a breakthrough towards Melitopol. Artillery battalions are being prepared along the Slavne-Odarivka line, while three mechanised battalions are being prepared to attack towards Robotyne-Ocheretuvate to open the way to Melitopol. The source added that the HIMARS battalion had been deployed in Stepnogorsk following the forced evacuation of civilians. He also claimed that personnel from the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade were spreading the word that preparations for the offensive were in the final stages.
While the first part of the story may be true, it is doubtful that personnel from the 128th Mechanised Brigade were leaking information about the counter-offensive. Based on Rochan's conversations in Kyiv, we can confirm that Ukrainian operational security is very tight. Few people knew exactly when the Kharkiv offensive would begin. Soldiers on the ground found out 24-48 hours before the attack. We are making this video a few days after this supposed leak, so it is now clear that it was false. It could have also been a part of a Ukrainian PSYOPS operation.
In contrast, members of the alleged Russian Motor Rifle Regiment recorded a video message claiming that Ukrainian forces had concentrated troops in the Orichiv area of the Zaporizhia region and that the Russian fortifications were for show.
Another source said that Ukraine has concentrated reserves in the Zaporizhzhia and Hylaipole areas. The source believes that once the muddy weather ceases, Ukrainian troops will attack in the direction of Polohy, Tokmak and Vasylivka. Another scenario considered crossing operations across the river and in the vicinity of Enerhodar, Nova Kakhovka and Oleshki, but we assess these as unlikely.
Based on earlier Russian reports, Ukrainian units currently deployed in the Zaporizhia Oblast would amount to some 22,000 men.
In general, it is difficult to write anything certain about the Ukrainian offensive except that it is coming. Both sides are conducting their own information campaigns. Above all, a Ukrainian PSYOPS campaign is underway, aimed at shaping the battlefield, creating confusion among the Russians and their collaborators, and reducing Russian readiness to fight. Early last week, a Ukrainian journalist said that buses had started to appear in various parts of the region. The first to be evacuated are those "loyal to the collaborators". The next day, Russian sources denied the claims. Nor have we seen any evidence of ongoing evacuations from the Zaporizhia region. It is probably too early for such actions. However, a scenario in which a significant Russian withdrawal from the front line leads to a collapse of the Russian presence in the region, resulting in the flight of both civilians and military personnel cannot be ruled out. Still, it is difficult to assess the likelihood of such a scenario.
Kherson - Crimea Direction
On 23 April, the Ukrainians established a bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper near the Antonovsky Bridge. It is not entirely clear what the purpose of this operation was. Kyiv's forces are probably trying to test the Russians in this section and to distract them from other directions.
Natalia Humeniuk, the spokeswoman for Ukraine's Southern Command, initially neither refuted nor confirmed the information that Ukrainian troops had crossed the Dnieper. She advised patience. By the middle of the week, however, she said that the counter-offensive had begun and was proceeding in small steps. Russian ammunition depots were being destroyed, and Ukrainian artillery was actively shelling Russian concentration points.
The Russians deny that the Ukrainians have established a bridgehead on the left side of the river. But, earlier that week, some sources suggested that the Ukrainians were trying to gain a bridgehead on Velykyi Potomkin Island, south of Kindyka and west of Veletenske.
Nevertheless, the Russians remain concerned about the overall situation and the future of their positions in the region. A Russian source said that although the Ukrainians had carried out some reconnaissance activities on the islands of the Dnieper Delta, there were signs of Ukrainian preparations for renewed landing attempts on the left bank of the Dnieper at Oleshki, Nova Kakhovka and Enerhodar. At the same time, the Ukrainians carried out artillery attacks on Stara Zburivka, Hola Prysytan, Kardashinka, Pidlisne, Oleshki and Pischanivka. Ukrainian partisans also blew up a Russian roadblock near Oleshki. The source also claimed that the Ukrainians had concentrated 15,000 men in the direction of Kherson.
The attack on the Russian fuel depot in Sevastopol, Crimea, is also significant. The facility belongs to the company 'Yuzhny Terminal' and is located close to some important military bases in Sevastopol, such as the garrison of the 810th Marine Brigade. In this way, the Ukrainians are further attempting to degrade the Russian logistical capabilities needed to repel an imminent offensive.
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Ultimately, outside Bakhmut, the war is in limbo, with both sides waiting for the Ukrainian offensive to begin. Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has said that Kyiv will continue its offensive campaign despite the lack of F-16s. Modern combat aircraft and long-range precision missiles have long been considered a priority. However, it is clear that the West is unwilling to provide the Ukrainians with these capabilities at this stage of the war. On the other hand, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has stated that the Alliance has delivered 98% of the military aid it promised to Ukraine, including more than 1,550 armoured vehicles, 230 tanks and other equipment, including large quantities of ammunition.
While it is unclear where the Ukrainian counter-attack will begin, we will undoubtedly see more attacks like the one in the Kherson region or attacks on bases like the one in Crimea. This is not to say that a Ukrainian counter-offensive will definitely take place there, but through these attacks, Kyiv is keeping Moscow in the dark as to the real target of the attack. They are part of a wider Ukrainian battle-shaping operation aimed at creating good conditions and increasing the chances of a successful counter-offensive.
That said, Rochan believes the offensive will consist of a main axis of attack and several auxiliary axes of advance to confuse the Russians about Ukrainian targets.
Note that a lot also depends on the weather. Ukrainians need warm conditions that allow the ground to dry out. The current forecast shows that temperatures will gradually rise, but are not expected to exceed 22°C (71°F) by the end of May. During the third and fourth weeks of May (15-28), 10-12 days of rain are forecast.
Still, the weather forecast does not indicate a significant deterioration in weather conditions compared to the previous ones. Temperatures will be relatively high, and rainfall will be low. The ground will continue to dry out. But, if Kyiv would like an extended period (two weeks) of rain-free weather, May will not provide such conditions.
Ukraine has already conducted three major successful counter-offensives at Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson - but this one seems to be the most difficult. The Russians have been preparing and gathering resources for some time. Assessing the situation is further complicated by the drone attack on the Kremlin, as it is unclear who was behind it.
On the other hand, the Ukrainians have shown time and again that they are capable of exploiting Russia's weaknesses, and this will be their aim again. Kyiv remains confident. Prime Minister Shmyhal said in Washington on 15 April that the Ukrainian offensive would begin soon and would lead to a return to the 1991 borders.
