- Hubert Walas
Israel-Hamas War.
Hamas is waging its biggest offensive against Israel in decades. Dozens of Palestinian fighters have crossed into Israel from Gaza by land, sea and air. Fighting takes place in the streets of Israeli cities. More than 4,000 rockets have been fired from Gaza into Israel. The number of dead and injured runs into the thousands. What is actually happening in Gaza and Israel? Why has it happened and what are the most likely geopolitical repercussions of this event?
In an address to the nation, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “Hamas started a cruel and evil war. We will win this war, but the price will be heavy. What happened today has never been seen in Israel”. Netanjahu also warned that it will be “long and difficult war".
What actually happened?
On Saturday 7 October, at around 5.30am local time, Hamas launched the largest military offensive against Israel in decades. Thousands of rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip - some 4,500 by the Monday morning count. At the same time, Palestinian guerrillas infiltrated Israeli territory and launched attacks on Israeli settlements bordering Gaza. The Israeli army came to their defence.
Fighting was reported in a number of places, including Sderot, the Re'im military base and Ofkaim. Here, we can see a map of the clashes, as well as locations from which the Israeli army is evacuating civilians.
At the same time, a massive rocket attack was underway on Israel's main cities - Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Beer Sheva, Ashdod or Ashkelon.
Forty-eight hours after the start of the Hamas offensive, fighting continued inside Israeli territory. In retaliation, Tel Aviv launched an air campaign against targets in the Gaza Strip.
On Sunday, Israel formally declared war, giving the green light for 'significant military action' in retaliation for the surprise attack.
More than 48 hours after Hamas launched an unprecedented invasion of Gaza, Israeli forces continued to battle militants holed up in several locations. Yet the latest reports state that control of these sites had been restored but terrorists could still be in the fighting area. The Israel Defence Forces reported that it had amassed 100,000 Israeli troops in the south of the country to prevent Hamas from waging war. 300,000 reservists have also been called up. According to US officials, the ground operation in Gaza is expected to begin within the next 48 hours. At the time of writing, the Gaza operation has not yet taken place.
According to reports, at least 700 people have been killed in Israel and more than 490 in Gaza.
The largest number of casualties resulted from a Hamas attack on participants in the Tribe of Nova music festival, next to Kibbutz Reim. Reports put the death toll at 260. The attack on unarmed civilians bears all the hallmarks of a terrorist attack aimed at the mass murder of festivalgoers.
It quickly became clear that the scale of the attack on Israel was unprecedented, as was the number of casualties. Israel's ambassador to the UN, Gilad Erdan, called the Hamas attack 'Israel's 9/11', in which let’s recall 3,000 people were killed. However, comparing the size of the two countries, the 700 Israelis killed would be equivalent to the deaths of nearly 25,000 Americans.
US special envoy on anti-Semitism Deborah Lipstadt said it was 'the deadliest attack on Jews since the Holocaust'.
It is also important to mention the Israeli civilians, soldiers and officers kidnapped by Hamas. According to Palestinian sources, the number of Israeli prisoners has risen to over 70.
The date of the attack was no coincidence - Saturday's attack took place on the 50th anniversary of the so-called 'Yom Kippur War' of 1973, when Israel's Arab neighbours launched a surprise attack on Israel on 6 October 1973, on Yom Kippur, the holiest day in the Jewish calendar.
So why did Hamas launch a massive attack on Israel?
The leader of Hamas' military wing, Mohammed Deif, said Saturday's attack was in response to the 16-year blockade of Gaza, Israeli air strikes on West Bank cities over the past year, violence at Al-Aqsa and increasing settler attacks on Palestinians and the growth of Israeli settlements in Palestinian areas.
"Enough is enough," Deif said in a recorded message.
Hamas is an Islamist organisation with a military wing that was formed in 1987 out of the Muslim Brotherhood, a Sunni Islamist group founded in Egypt in the late 1920s.
The word 'Hamas' itself is Arabic for the Islamic Resistance Movement. The group, like most Palestinian political factions and parties, claims that Israel is an occupying power and that it is trying to liberate the Palestinian territories. It regards Israel as an illegitimate state.
But what is Hamas' target in its current offensive?
Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader, said on Saturday that armed Palestinian factions intend to extend the ongoing battle in Gaza and break through to the West Bank and Jerusalem.
The battle has moved to the heart of the 'Zionist entity, he said.
But the difference in potential punishes caution about such announcements by Haniyeh. Far more likely is the expulsion of the Palestinians from the territories controlled by Israel. The war will move to the Gaza Strip, where a bloody operation will be carried out to completely eradicate Hamas - killing or capturing all its members and dismantling all its concentration, command and weapons storage sites.
Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said: "I have ordered a total siege of the Gaza Strip. We are fighting human animals, and we are acting accordingly".
While Israel is likely to regain control of the settlements quickly, public opinion in Israel is unanimous that the Hamas operation is a humiliation and the greatest demonstration of weakness in the intelligence services and the Israeli armed forces in general in decades.
Chuck Freilich, former Deputy National Security Advisor of Israel in the pages of the widely read daily Haaretz, puts it bluntly:
“It is a catastrophic intelligence and operational failure that resulted not just in tragic civilian losses, but almost entire military units, the collapse of an entire strategic approach.”
Freilich sees the source of the current war in the divisive policies of Prime Minister Netanyahu, who for years has undermined the legitimacy of the Palestinian Authority in an effort to demonstrate a lack of negotiating partner and thus a lack of willingness to make peace.
The author also points to a fundamental failure of leadership, where Netanyahu, in order to stay in power, was willing to form an extremely radical government, allowing people into power who only escalated the conflict and allowed the harassment of West Bank Arabs. We are referring to radicals such as Internal Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Becalel Smortich - Finance Minister and head of the civil administration in the occupied West Bank.
Netanyahu has also implemented a judicial reform that has divided and torn Israeli society and, according to Freilich, severely weakened the Israeli army. We have covered these developments in detail in our recent material, 'Israel. A constant state of war', to which we urge you to return. It remains highly relevant.
The whole thing, in the Israeli analyst's view, has led to a fundamentally flawed strategic concept in which it was Israel that underestimated the enemy. "We have come to believe that we were so strong that we could address the Hamas threat solely through the static defence, that Hamas was deterred and focused on governance and living conditions in Gaza, and that this situation could be perpetuated indefinitely even in the absence of any diplomatic horizon. Policies of statics never work in the long-term.," writes Freilich.
But how does Israel's war with Hamas fit into the larger regional puzzle?
It should be remembered that for decades the main supporters of Palestinian statehood have been the Arab states, which have opposed Israel's actions because of their Islamic ties. In recent years, however, there has been a gradual warming of relations between the Arab states and Israel. This was the result of the increasingly aggressive actions of the common enemy of both sides, Iran. This culminated in the signing of the Abrahamic Accords by Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco and Bahrain, with the prospect of Saudi Arabia signing the agreement. This would have been really bad news for both Iran and Palestine, which, in such a situation, would most likely have been sacrificed on the altar of the agreement.
The purpose of the Hamas offensive, contrary to the claims of its leaders, is most likely different. Namely, to drive a wedge into improving Arab-Israeli relations and to remind Arab countries and the world at large of the still unresolved issue of Palestinian independence.
And that is what Hamas seems to have achieved, albeit in the short term. All Arab capitals have issued statements, initially calling for an end to the fighting and a ceasefire, but later in the statements, they are blaming Israel and calling for an end to attacks and provocations targeting Palestinians.
The Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Yassem Albudaiwi, called for an immediate ceasefire between the two sides to protect innocent civilians. At the same time, however, Albudaiwi held 'the Israeli occupation forces responsible for the current situation resulting from continued and blatant Israeli attacks on the Palestinian people and holy sites'.
Similar announcements were made by - among others - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman, Egypt, Qatar and the Arab League. On the other hand, the members of the Abrahamic Accord - the United Arab Emirates and Morocco, as well as Bahrain and Turkey - refrained from pointing the finger directly at Israel. In short, the attack has made it harder for Arabs to forget Palestine.
Iran, Hamas's main ally, has denied involvement in the war. However, there is no doubt that it was certainly aware of the operation and may have been involved in planning it. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, expressed support for Hamas and said the attacks were a 'legitimate and necessary defence' against Israeli aggression. He also said that Iran would continue to support Hamas and other Palestinian groups until the 'liberation of Palestine and Jerusalem'.
Russia is invariably mentioned as one of the actors in the conflict. Kremlin propagandists quickly seized the opportunity to mix the Palestinian offensive with the war in Ukraine. It should be remembered that the Kremlin most likely maintains relations with Hamas. In March, Hamas reportedly sent a high-level delegation to Russia and held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, warning the Kremlin that the group's "patience" with Israel was "running out". Senior Hamas officials reportedly also visited Russia in May and September 2022.
The West, on the other hand, sided with Israel. The EU, in the words of Ursula von der Leyen, condemned the actions of Hamas and expressed support for Israel and its right to defend itself. The United States and Joe Biden made similar statements. The American president called for a cessation of hostilities but also announced the provision of humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza "who are suffering as a result of these attacks". Washington has also sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the Mediterranean, near the fighting, and is considering additional funding for Israel.
So what is the most likely scenario in the short to medium term?
While for the Arab countries the Hamas offensive is a momentary reminder of the Palestinian quest for independence, the threat from Iran remains the main determinant of their regional policy. Israel, on the other hand, now has reason to launch a large-scale operation against Hamas in Gaza.
Israel is likely to stop the Hamas offensive quickly, and the fighting will shift to Gaza. A lot of civilians will be killed and the organisation will be, if not completely destroyed, at least severely weakened as a result of the war - that is the expectation of the Israeli public. The key question posed by Freilich, quoted earlier, is - what will happen to Gaza afterwards? Israel does not want to reoccupy the Strip and its 2 million inhabitants. In theory, the aim should be to restore Palestinian Authority control over Gaza and work towards a long-term peace process. But will this ever be acceptable to the Palestinians without Palestinian independence?
