- Hubert Walas
Siege of Kiev.
The second day of the war began with the sound of alarm sirens heard in Kyiv and Lviv, among other places. During the night, the Russians pushed forward in every direction. This is the approximate picture of the Russian invasion as of 16 CET. Russian rocket and artillery attacks continued throughout the night and into the morning. Early assessments say Moscow assumed a faster collapse of Ukraine's troops and quicker territorial gains.
Despite the inflicted losses on the first day of the war, the Russians did not destroy all of Ukraine's anti-aircraft defenses. According to the information provided by the UA General Staff, several missiles and two enemy aircraft were destroyed.
Russian forces are sticking mostly to the road network, as they did in 2014-2015. Early advances are being made by reconnaissance troops, but driving by roads leaves support units open to ambushes. Signs of urban warfare are also emerging. Heavy fighting is taking place around Kharkiv and Sumy. Russian troops have attempted to advance beyond Ochtyrka and appear to be trying to encircle Kharkiv.
The main impact came in the south, from Crimea. Russian forces are advancing on Kherson, Melitopol and the Antonovsky Bridge area. There have been initial indications that Russian troops may have entered Mykolayiv, but this is likely only a reconnaissance element.
Russia has made limited progress, and the Ukrainian side retains control of major cities, but the encirclement of Kyiv continues, with Ukraine's army resisting in 4 different directions.
The Ukrainian army has blown up three bridges around Kyiv in an effort to impede enemy advances, Euromaidan PR reported Friday morning
The army of the Russian Federation is conducting an offensive on both sides of the Dnieper. The offensive from the north would not have been possible if not for the use of Belarusian territory (one side direction is from Mozyr on the left side of the Dnieper, the other direction is Chernihiv on the right side of the Dnieper). These are photos of Kyiv territorial defense forces defenders on the Podil district road bridge. According to reports, Ukrainian troops are moving to defensive positions near the city center.
The continuity of statehood in Ukraine is still preserved. The state, despite the difficulties, is functioning and performing its functions. The army has not been broken up and continues to resist, despite its very disadvantaged position.
"This may be the last time you see me alive." - President Volodymyr Zelenski was to say at a recent conference with European Union leaders, diplomatic sources said. Zelenski announced that he is staying in Kiev. Indeed, it appears that the Kremlin's main goal is to seize Kiev, break the command centers and "eliminate" the political leadership. The effect of this is supposed to be the surrender of Ukrainian soldiers and the end of hostilities.
Moreover, a new direction has opened in the northwest of Ukraine, from Belarus, south of Pinsk. Its purpose may be to cut off Ukraine from supplies from the West, via Poland. Airports on the territory of Belarus are intensively used: Baranovichi, Luninets, Bobruisk, also the landing of Russian I³-76D on the airport in Gomel was reported.
But just as the Kremlin calculated well the bland Western response, it seems to have underestimated the Ukrainian fighting spirit and the capabilities of its military. There is a will to fight, there is unity among the people, and the authorities remain in the country. Moreover, the Ukrainian military reports that Ukrainians have killed 2,800 Russian soldiers since the war began. Kyiv reports that this is the highest number of casualties that modern Russia has suffered in a single day. The fighting for Chernihiv strongly affected the tempo of the operation. A major success was the recapture of Hostomel Airport near Kyiv. Not only did this complicate the Russians' offensive on Kyiv, but it also extremely rekindled the fighting spirit. Ukraine is also trying
Social media is circulating stories of unsung heroes. Like the 13 soldiers of Snake Island. Listen to this.
They were killed after this message.
#Wideo
Imagination is also stirred by the legend of a Ukrainian pilot nicknamed "Ghost of Kyiv", who was said to have shot down 6 enemy planes with his obsolete MiG-29.
#Wideo
Ukrainians also report on a sapper who was about to sacrifice his life on a bridge in Kherson. He planted a charge to blow up the bridge but had no way to escape from it.
#Obrazki
Inevitably, it has to be said that the Ukrainians play the information war well and use social media to raise the fighting spirit. However, it is important to remember that the spirit is born on the frontline, not on the Internet.
#orędzie pułkownika
Moreover, the Ukrainians managed to bite and attack targets deep inside Russia. With Tochka-U tactical missiles, they attacked the Millerovo airfield in the Rostov region, possibly destroying several aircraft.
Nonetheless, we are seeing limited Russian commitment to the offensive all the time. The Russian military chose not to maximize its firepower, which could have resulted in thousands of dead and wounded. Ukraine was not crushed within the first few days of the war.
Russia likely felt that the high number of casualties in Ukraine would make it difficult to reach a long-term political solution. There is no guarantee that Russia will be able to translate military power into achieving its political goals, and determined resistance in the cities will force Russia to use more force, leading to more civilian casualties and making it harder to end the conflict.
And the longer the fighting goes on, the greater the risk of more casualties on the Ukrainian and Russian sides, followed by the problem of explaining to Russian mothers the death of their sons. On top of that, there are growing economic costs associated with foreign anger, even though this anger continues to be suppressed by the Germans, among others. Speed of action is key, which is why seizing Kiev and surrendering Ukraine is now a priority for Russia. However, one should remember not to draw far-fetched conclusions from the way the fighting went in the first 48 hours. The Russian commanders planned something, the result is mixed and they can now make adjustments.
On the other hand, casualties are unavoidable when fighting starts in the city. To get to the government district you have to go quarter by quarter.
It should be remembered all the time that the Russians have a powerful advantage in firepower. Therefore, it is not Ukrainian morale but military equipment that is the problem now. Ukraine needs arms supplies.
4 Ukrainian transport An-y-26s, belonging to the Ministry of Emergency Affairs, arrived in Poland today and landed in Bydgoszcz, while 4 Il-76s landed in Deblin, but the purpose of their flight is unknown. Poland has closed its skies to the Russian planes.
Unfortunately, there are reports of increasingly tragic crimes against civilians. The governor of the Sumy region has reported that Russia continues its bloody shelling of residential areas. In the Sumy region, houses, a shelter and a kindergarten were shelled from multiple rocket launchers. Severely wounded are children. Such incidents fall under war crimes.
Short brief on diplomacy:
NATO's Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) - have been activated.
While Putin, on the other hand, continues the rhetoric of dehumanizing Ukrainians and encouraging a putsch in Kiev: "It looks like it will be easier for us to come to an agreement with them than with this bunch of drug addicts and neo-Nazis who have settled in Kiev and taken the entire nation hostage."
Sergey Lavrov explained why Russia had to start a war with Ukraine and it was a pure example of fiction previously known from Orwell: "The Russian operation is being conducted in order to free the Ukrainians from oppression so that they can decide their own future."
The procedure for suspending Russia from the Council of Europe has been initiated. Also the EU is to freeze the assets of Valdimir Putin and Sergey Lavrov, but at the same time will not impose a flight ban for them.
Images from Chechnya are also coming in, where Ramzan Kadyrov was said to be briefing Chechens before being sent to the Ukrainian front.
Turkey, on the other hand, has refused to block its own straits to Russian warships citing the Montreux Conventions of 1936.
Russian scientists have issued a letter demanding an end to the war.
Notable is the action of tiny Estonia, which is sending additional Javelin missiles and anti-aircraft munitions.
Last-minute reports say Germany is opening up to the possibility of cutting Russia off from SWIFT, the German finance minister said.
The civilian situation is becoming increasingly difficult. Thousands of refugees are heading to the border with Poland and Romania. Traffic jams are tens of kilometers long, cars are being abandoned. As a result of the announced general mobilization, the Ukrainian military does not allow men aged 18-60 to leave the country and orders them to fight the aggressor. Women are screaming not to take their husbands. People are walking up to 80 kilometers. This includes small children. The journey is especially hard on infants.
Polish Humanitarian Action organization provides them with support. Here is the message.
#PAH
