GTBT - NATO Summit Gives Ukraine Hope, So As Trump Win Brings Fear.

: Filip Dąb-Mirowski; Created: 19 July 2024

After 75 years, the alliance's challenges are as relevant as ever.

NATO's July summit in Washington was a historic moment. The Alliance celebrated its 75th anniversary. Despite its ripe old age, its original founding in 1949 remains as relevant as ever. The North Atlantic Alliance was created in response to the Soviet threat. After 75 years, the Alliance is doing exactly the same thing, only the adversary's trademark has changed - from Soviet to Russian - as have the opponent’s conventional power, which bears no resemblance to the USSR's peak capability.

Despite NATO's seniority, the organization is still younger than ... the future president of the United States, whoever that may be. However, unlike the species Homo sapiens, the Alliance does not suffer from cognitive decline with age. Thus, the summit became a perfect illustration of the current state of the international relations game. While the West is consolidating against an aggressive Russian Federation, there are growing concerns about American domestic politics and the condition of President Joe Biden, as well as the potential future agenda of the more flamboyant but less predictable Donald Trump.

There's no denying that the Allies have expended a great deal of energy preparing to meet the challenges of the global security environment. Over the past few years, they have been building capacity to counter Russian aggression, rebuilding their own military capabilities, strengthening the eastern flank, redeploying new forces, and reforming the command system, culminating in the new defense plans that have just been adopted. Why was the NATO summit important, and how does the leadership crisis in the United States affect global geopolitics?

NATO is still countering Russia

The headlines from the summit were dominated by another gaffe by Joe Biden, who called Volodymyr Zelensky - Putin, or a while later by the assassination attempt on Trump. Still, the summit produced some important decisions that, for the reasons outlined above, have often been overlooked.

First, the Alliance has taken further steps to expand the industrial base (NATO Industrial Capacity Expansion) and to move stockpiled resources closer to the Alliance's eastern flank. Defence capabilities have been enhanced with the establishment of the NATO Integrated Cyber Defence Centre and the commissioning of the Redzikowo, Poland missile base. Progress has also been made on offensive capabilities. The US has announced the deployment of new strike potential - SM-6 missiles, Tomahawk cruise missiles and new hypersonic weapons - in Germany.

“Show me where you put your money, I’ll show you your priorities” - said Benedetta Berti of the NATO Secretary General's Policy Planning Office, adding that European countries and Canada have increased their defence spending by nearly $600 billion since Russia seized Crimea in 2014.

Further progress is also being made in efforts to strengthen Ukraine's capabilities.

The Alliance is taking on the role of coordinating support to the Ukrainian armed forces. Until now, the US-led Ukraine Defence Contact Group (UDCG, or "Ramstein Group") has operated outside Alliance structures. The Allies have decided to replace it with a new structure, NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU), based in Wiesbaden, Germany. It will be headed by a three-star general who will lead a staff of around 700. In addition, the newly appointed NATO High Representative in Kyiv will help oversee the transfer of assistance. But that is not all.

Further development of the JATEC analysis and training centre in Bydgoszcz has been confirmed, which will draw on the experience and analytical data gathered by Ukrainian forces during the conflict. Information sharing and joint training are expected to increase the level of interoperability between NATO and Ukrainian forces. A number of steps have also been taken to enhance Ukraine's military production capabilities, with a particular focus on ammunition. On the sidelines of the Summit, an agreement was signed between US defence contractor Northrop Grumman and Ukraine's Ukroboronprom to build an ammunition production facility in Ukraine.

At the same time, several aid packages were announced, the main contents of which were precisely ammunition and anti-aircraft measures (e.g. the delivery of three more Patriot batteries from the US, Germany and Romania was promised, as well as dozens of other anti-aircraft systems), but more important seems to be the fact that the members of the Pact have officially committed themselves to spending a total of at least 40 billion euros a year, divided in proportion to each country's arms expenditure. This is solid support that does not include individual packages from, for example, Asian partners.

In this respect, Kyiv has reason to be satisfied. It has finally seen both hard cooperation mechanisms and an almost guaranteed financial perspective, which makes the coming year 2025 seem formally secured. This is an important step towards the institutionalisation of assistance. The NATO communiqué also made some definitive statements that carry political weight. All members agreed that Ukraine's accession to the Alliance is an "irreversible prospect" and that the Alliance will never accept the annexation of Ukrainian territories, including Crimea. The role of Belarus, Iran and China in supporting Russian aggression was also made clear. Beijing protested, but the fact is that it has been recognised as Russia's main 'helper', officially calling into question China's positioning as a neutral peacemaker.

Thus, the alliance members have officially taken a very clear position. If NATO support were to run out or be significantly weakened for some reason, it would be a verdict on Ukraine. All these actions mean that by helping the Ukrainians, NATO is putting its credibility on the line. If it fails, it will be a blow that the Alliance may not survive.

Some members are also preparing for such a threat. This is how the establishment of the Ukraine Compact, a political initiative built on the G7 Joint Declaration of 12 July 2023, can be interpreted as a substitute for membership for Ukraine. Further security agreements were signed during the summit, bringing the total number of agreements to 23. It seems that under the current circumstances, this is the maximum Kyiv can hope for.

He is just an old man

Which brings us to the heart of the matter. Summit participants deliberated in the long shadow of Joe Biden. Speculation about the President's health was rife in many behind-the-scenes discussions, and his every public appearance was watched anxiously for further signs of weakness. And it was spotted. Biden committed a gaffe on the final day when, while inviting President Volodymyr Zelensky on stage, the American president referred to him as 'President Putin'. Under normal circumstances, such an incident would have been winked at. Biden quickly corrected himself and covered it up with a joke. But the audience did not laugh.

The disastrous election debate with Donald Trump, which took place just over a week before the NATO meeting, made it clear that the American president has major cognitive difficulties, to put it mildly. His mental and physical state has clearly deteriorated and there is growing talk of progressive dementia. The president's 'clumsiness' has gone from episodic to permanent in recent years, which is hardly surprising for a man in his eighties who has been exposed to the stresses and strains of leading the world's greatest superpower. For many younger than him, such a burden might be beyond his strength, but despite growing calls within the Democratic Party for him to withdraw from the race, Biden remains confident that he has a chance of winning the election in November. But he seems to be alone in this view.

Meanwhile, just after the NATO summit, the whole of America held its breath when Thomas Matthew Crooks almost killed Donald Trump. The failed assassination attempt, from which Trump escaped with only a scratch, has only strengthened the Republican candidate's position ahead of the upcoming elections.

In addition, Biden has become unreliable in his stated desire to bring about a Ukrainian victory in the war. He continues to pursue a policy of self-restraint (avoiding escalation) that de facto encourages the Russians to push the boundaries of what is acceptable and to engage in more and more hybrid aggression against Western states. At the end of June, US military bases in Europe were put on high alert due to the threat of attacks by Russian saboteur groups, and during the summit the media leaked information about the foiled Kremlin-ordered assassination attempt on the head of the German arms company Rheinmetall, Armin Pepperger. Even in the summit communiqué itself, NATO explicitly refers to the threat of hybrid attacks, sabotage of critical infrastructure, including undersea ICT cables.

Despite this, there is no visible sign that the West is actively countering with a symmetrical response to the attacks or a clear transfer of costs to the enemy's territory. The White House still refuses to allow the Ukrainians to use Western weapons to attack the Russian rear, a permission requested by the Ukrainian delegation in Washington. US’ indecisiveness was further reverberated by the British. On the first day of the summit, both President Zelenski and the Western media reported that the new British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, had agreed to attack installations in the Russian Federation with British StormShadow missiles. After the summit, however, these claims were denied by the British Defence Minister.

It seems that the Americans are not only restricting themselves, but also putting pressure on their allies. One exception is the agreement on the defence of the Kharkiv region, which provides for strikes within 100 km of the border with the Russian Federation. Ironically, it was the lifting of this restriction that brought Russian attacks in the area to a complete halt almost overnight and brought relative calm to Kharkiv, which had previously been shelled. So we are not talking about a lack of tools, which fortunately have finally arrived in Ukraine, but about a restriction on their use.

Against this backdrop, it is hardly surprising that the rest of the world is committing to the balancing act in the international policy that ignores American discontent. Joe Biden's pronouncements are not taken seriously by the international community, and there is no indication that this perception is likely to change significantly. Adversaries and rivals are feeling impunity as they act more boldly against the current international order, leading to rising tensions and undermining allied ties.

Indeed, the US's problems overlap with similar difficulties for other theoretical leaders in the West. President Emmanuel Macron's electoral gambit has led to internal chaos, which may have curbed the rise of Marine LePen's National Rally, but at the cost of losing the presidential majority and the rise of the far left with people like Jean-Luc Melenchon, who opposes both NATO and the EU. In doing so, France has sabotaged itself, putting into question President Macron's ambitious plans in international politics. The situation is no better in Germany, where the shaky governing coalition is bracing itself for a loss of power in next year's general election. Chancellor Olaf Scholz remains a weak politician, unable to reach out to Western leaders, and the federal coffers gleam empty, unable to rearm a dwindling army. Meanwhile, post-election Britain remains preoccupied with domestic policy changes following the election defeat of the Tories after 14 years in power, and is unable to provide Western leadership.

And when there is a lack of strong leaders, everyone starts playing to their own ends.

A perfect illustration of this situation is how, just before the NATO summit, Viktor Orban travelled the world as a self-appointed courier. From Ukraine to Russia, then to China, and the United States, where he held an informal meeting with Donald Trump. Despite the fact that Hungary holds the presidency of the European Union for this six-month period, his self-appointed mission was not agreed or accepted by any member of the alliance or the European Union. Nor could it have had any effect beyond positioning Orban as a disposable liaison between two hostile camps. His position is like a flag showing which way the wind is blowing.

By contrast, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Vladimir Putin in Moscow on the day Russian forces bombed a children's hospital in Kyiv. India is the second country after China to reap such huge profits from trading in underpriced Russian commodities, which it pays for in rupees and resells more expensively in dollars. No wonder Modi wants to maintain this state of affairs, for which he was awarded Russia's highest state honour, the Order of St Andrew.

Both Modi's visit and the bombing of the children are cynically planned gestures by the Kremlin, of which there has been no shortage in recent times. The Russian Federation has just taken over the presidency of the UN Security Council, on the occasion of which it held a banquet barely a day after the bestial attack on the hospitalised children. The dish served was called 'chicken Kyiv’. Putin wants to show that whatever he does, whatever crimes he commits, there will be no consequences. Similarly, Prime Minister Modi need not fear them or anyone who breaks Russia's isolation by engaging with it. This is another step towards weakening the West. The ultimate goal is to achieve a ceasefire on his terms, not the West's (or Ukraine's, for that matter).

Regardless of what Joe Biden himself and his entourage say, the world no longer believes he will win and is beginning to position itself for the expected inauguration of Donald Trump after the November elections. The Kremlin sees this as its big chance for a favourable settlement of the ongoing war. Vladimir Putin is putting on a good face and using the entire propaganda machine to convince the world that Russia is doing well, both economically and militarily, despite the obvious facts and data.

Old Russian T-62 tanks are increasingly appearing on the front line, and there is a shortage of men and ammunition to carry out major offensive operations. With record losses, Russian territorial gains remain minimal, on a scale that cannot lead to a breakthrough at the front. For now, access to intermediates and components and the sanctions-hit ability to export raw materials are enough to keep the Kremlin afloat, but the situation is steadily deteriorating. For the Russians, a ceasefire or a freeze in the conflict is an absolute necessity.

This theatre is meant to convince Trump and his entourage to force Ukraine into a ceasefire that is unfavourable to them. So that Trump can concentrate on other international challenges and isolationist policies. Viktor Orban's self-proclaimed 'mission', Iran's involvement in the Middle East conflict, North Korea's aggressive behaviour and Chinese pressure simulating an air and naval blockade of Taiwan fit perfectly into this narrative. Launching multiple conflicts at once is designed to divert US attention, stretch Western forces and fuel isolationist tendencies. Trump's choice of JD Vance as his running mate, or a vice-presidential candidate who makes no secret of his anti-Ukrainian and isolationist rhetoric, adds to the fears about the state of affairs after the November elections.

Anxiety about the immediate future was palpable at the Washington summit, and clouded its generally positive tone. NATO has finally reached a level where it can realistically think about actually defending its eastern flank in a full-scale conflict. The Alliance is much stronger today than it was three years ago, but it suffers from the political weakness of its leadership.

NATO's muscles are growing, its heart is in the right place, but not its head, which seems as foggy as the mind of an American president. What an irony.

Źródła:

Filip Dąb-Mirowski

Author of the Global Game blog. Publicist, short story writer, entrepreneur. Contributor to the New Europe Institute, New Deal, Wirtualna Polska.

Regions

Topics

YT Series

Tags

NATO Summit Gives Ukraine Hope, So As Trump Win Brings Fear.

NATO is still countering Russia

He is just an old man

May interest you as well

North Africa - Europe's New Power Plant?

Europe's Make or Break Moment

Trump Shakes The Pillars of the American Empire