- Hubert Walas
Prigozhin revolt.
On Friday, 23 June, almost a year and a half after the start of Russia's armed invasion of Ukraine, we witnessed the most tangible evidence yet of the weakness of the Russian state system. Yevgeny Prigozhin, with the mercenary group PMC Wagner, staged an armed rebellion against Moscow's military leadership. Although Wagner ultimately failed to reach Moscow and the convoy turned back 200km from the Russian capital, the repercussions of the event will leave a deep scar on the Kremlin regime.
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For the sake of clarity, let us trace the sequence of events.
For months, even years, Prigozhin had been in open conflict with the Russian army's top brass. In particular, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. During the war, Prigozhin launched many tirades against both, including accusing Shoigu's Russian Defence Ministry of deliberately restricting the supply of ammunition to Prigozhin's PMC Wagner.
On 13 June, Vladimir Putin ordered all mercenaries and volunteers to sign contracts with the Russian Defence Ministry in order to obtain legal status and social benefits. But Prigozhin immediately cut off the possibility of Wagner's men signing anything. "Wagner will not sign any contracts with Shoigu," he said. What was noticeable, however, was that Shoigu was orchestrating Putin to discipline or even overthrow Prigozhin and his PMC Wagner. The noose around Prigozhin’s neck was tightening.
Ten days later, Prigozhin held another session in which he slandered the Russian command, this time in particularly blunt terms. He said that the Russian public had been deceived, that the Donbas had been plundered by the Russians since 2014, and that the 'special military operation' had been triggered by Shoigu's personal ambitions and the desire of the Russian ruling clan to make Medvedchuk president of Ukraine. The Russian also commented on the current war, claiming that the military command does not care about the number of dead Russians and that the Russian lines in Zaporizhia and Kherson Region are being broken and will soon share the fate of Kharkiv and Kherson.
Around the same time, information began to appear on Russian telegram channels about an alleged order to arrest Wagner's forces if they refused to sign contracts with the ministry.
The last straw came on Friday evening. Prigozhin said that PMC Wagner, defending the honour of Russia and the Russian army, had been shamelessly deceived. Prigozhin claimed that they were ready to make concessions, lay down their arms and find a solution. But the Russian Ministry of Defence decided to destroy the group and launched a missile attack on Wagner's rear, killing many soldiers. "The next step is up to us," that’s how Prigozhin ended the message. Moments later, he declared "war on the Russian Defence Ministry".
"The Council of Commanders of the PMC Wagner has taken a decision: the evil of the military leadership of the country must be stopped". - stated the message. In later messages, Prigozhin called the revolt a "march for justice".
In the hours that followed, events moved very quickly. Prigozhin announced that 'there are 25,000 of us and anyone can join. During the night, without a fight, Wagner's forces entered Rostov-on-Don, a city of over a million people, and a key hub in Russian war logistics. The headquarters of the Southern Military District, the FSB, the local administration buildings and the airport were seized. But Wagner did not stop there. It headed for Moscow with a large convoy of several hundred pieces of military equipment with the aim, as Prigozhin claimed, of overthrowing the top military commanders.
The seriousness of the situation was realised in Moscow, and panic set in. Among others, General Surovikin - who had a close relationship with Prigozhin in the past - was supposed to appeal to the Wagnerites' sense of reason. The Federal Security Service urged the Wagnerites to refuse to carry out Prigozhin's criminal orders and arrest him on the legitimate authorities' behalf. The General Prosecutor's Office opened a case against him for armed rebellion. The "Fortress" plan was introduced in Moscow. - roads and bridges leading to the city from the south were blocked or even destroyed. Finally, the commander-in-chief, Vladimir Putin, addressed the nation.
"They want to divide us as they did in 1917. Any internal rebellion is fatal for our nation. Betrayal." - Vladimir Putin thundered. The address to the nation made clear the gravity of the situation. Rebellion, putsch, coup d'état, civil war - whatever term we use, the situation for the Kremlin was dire. And while Prigozhin's rebellion had previously been directed not at the president but at Shoigu and Gerasimov, Wagner's boss now had to change tactics. "The president is deeply mistaken and will be changed," Prigozhin said.
All the more so as visual evidence of what was happening began to emerge. Wagner's troops were stationed in Rostov, and priceless for the war effort, planes and helicopters were shot down. It even came to the point where the Russian army attacked its own fuel depot in Voronezh to prevent it from falling into Wagner's hands and making it easier for him to reach Moscow.
Gradually, voices of support or opposition to the coup began to appear. Prisoners from the Storm-Z group supported Prigozhin, while Ramzan Kadyrov and the Chechen Akhmat remained loyal to Putin. It was Akhmat who was sent to confront Wagner in Rostov.
Meanwhile, the assault on Moscow continued. The rebels decided to bypass Voronezh and moved thru the Lipetsk region. Wagner's main and most vital strength was speed. While the Russian commanders took hours to make decisions and issue orders, Wagner's column moved dozens of kilometres ahead.
All this lasted until Saturday evening, when it was announced that Prigozhin had decided to abandon the rally to Moscow following negotiations with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Moments later, the information was confirmed by Wagner's boss.
"We are only 200 km from Moscow, now blood could be spilt. We are turning our column around and heading in the opposite direction," said Prigozhin.
The raid probably ended near the city of Tula. Wanger's troops covered a distance of 800km from Rostov without close contact with the ground forces and were occasionally attacked by the air force.
The question remained: what actually happened? Under what conditions did Prigozhin agree to stop a putsch which, in the opinion of many, had a good chance of success if the column reached Moscow?
"None of the police officers are prepared to fight. Absolutely no one. Even the special units of the Grom police are not able to fight the experienced Wagner soldiers. It is one thing to fly into flats and put opposition people face down on the floor, it is another thing to have opponents who are actually ready to die. The police are not ready for that, a warm office is not a trench. - said an anonymous source in Moscow.
The official version is that Prigozhin did not want to shed Russian blood. The main initial objective was to overthrow the leadership of the Ministry of Defence and the General Staff. At the time of writing, the fate of Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov is still unknown. On the other hand, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Wagner's boss will travel to Belarus and agreed to the dissolution of PMC Wagner. It was initially reported that the criminal case against him would be dropped, but the latest information suggests that this may not be the case. In turn, the leading figure in the negotiations was not to be Lukashenko but Alexei Dyumin, the governor of the Tula region. There is speculation that he could be a potential successor to Sergei Shoigu. Gerasimov, on the other hand, would be replaced by the aforementioned Surovikin.
The entire operation cost the Russians 6 helicopters (including the valuable Mi-8 for radio-electronic warfare) and an Il-22 command and control aircraft. Up to 13 pilots were killed.
Let us now consider the balance sheet of Prigozhin's rebellion.
First, the 4D chess scenario should be ruled out in advance as if the whole affair was a manufactured theatre to achieve some goal, e.g. to give Putin a reason to remove Shoigu and Gerasimov.
Putin and Russia have suffered a devastating loss of image, in addition to very valuable material losses.
The fact is that all the fuss has highlighted what a weak and structurally inefficient system Russia as a state and Putin as a leader are.
It took only a few thousand troops to seize a city of over a million people, which was crucial to Russian war logistics. A few thousand more troops stormed Moscow, and no one bothered them apart from the occasional air raid.
The situation at the top was similar. Only Generals Surovikin and Alekseev, presumably under duress, spoke out in favour of Putin. There were no mass declarations of support from governors, members of the Duma or other barons. The oligarchs left Moscow en masse, as did the upper class, with the price of flights reaching ten times the normal level. Mass escape. Apathy. No one wanted to die for Putin.
Even Ramzan Kadyrov's tiktok army deliberately delayed its arrival, citing equipment problems and traffic jams on the roads to avoid direct contact with the Wagnerites.
The fact is that it was a spectacle, but a spectacle of Putin's, and the Kremlin's, weakness, broadcasted to the whole world. Russia's opponents and allies abroad, as well as the entire state of the Russian Federation, took note. The mafia structure, to which Russia's vertical system of power is often compared, is based on the person of a strong leader. If the leader shows weakness, he loses respect and authority in the eyes of the rest of the gang.
If Prigozhin has made a mess of the whole country and got away with it, even setting conditions, why should I fear anything from the regime? Today such a calculation may be made by many Russian siloviki and others with more or less power.
So while the short-term effects may look insignificant, especially compared to the expectations of Saturday, 24 June, in the long term the current events could be disastrous for Putin and the Kremlin. The Prigozhin rebellion is another, but the biggest, example yet of Russia's fragility. The rebellion should not be treated as a single, exceptional event, but as a symptom or prelude to events with much broader implications.
This is also the opinion, sometimes controversial in academic circles, of the Russian researcher Kamil Galeev. The fact is, however, that Galeev correctly predicted the outcome of Wagner's coup while it was still in full swing when the column was on its way to Moscow. In his view, the long-term consequences will be disastrous for the Kremlin.
It is still unclear what will happen to Prigozhin and Wagner's PMC. Although Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, claims that the rebel will be exiled to Belarus and Wagner will be disbanded, this may not be the case. Peskov is not known for his truthfulness, while Prigozhin himself and Wagner left Rostov as a rock star, accompanied by cheers and chants. It should not be forgotten, however, that Prigozhin himself suffered a severe blow to his image within his own organisation, which felt used for the leader's own games. Nevertheless, if Prigozhin survives, this need not be the last chapter written by Putin's former chef.
On Monday 26 June, new statements were made by both Putin and Prigozhin. Putin declared victory. He thanked almost the entire Russian people, although objectively, they had done absolutely nothing to stop the mutiny. Prigozhin, on the other hand, reiterated that he did not want to shed Russian blood and that his actions were not aimed at overthrowing the government but were a kind of protest against the Russian Defence Ministry's desire to disband Wagner and a direct consequence of the missile attack on Wagner's bases. Yet Prigozhin's statement was full of pride. That is not how someone who has been defeated sounds.
The winner of the whole situation is certainly one - Ukraine. Sure, if the rebellion had reached Moscow, the chances of a complete collapse of the Russian lines and the expulsion of a confused enemy would have been high. Still, the rebellion only accelerates the process of Russia's decay. It introduces even more confusion and uncertainty into the ranks of Russian soldiers and officers. Even in terms of equipment, the Russians have inflicted considerable losses on themselves.
One check was enough to see how rotten the Russian system is from the inside. Although the situation has been temporarily eased, the pot continues to boil, even more so than before.
Hubert Walas
