- Hubert Walas
Coalition relief. 1600 pieces of equipment from the Allies for Ukraine.
In a month, it will be one year since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. The past 11 months have been a time of heroic struggle by the Ukrainians, supported by the collective effort of NATO countries to provide Kyiv with the weapons it needed. The scale and form of this assistance have grown in line with Kyiv's needs. The next conference of the "coalition of the willing" in Ramstein is another crucial moment that will determine the fate of this war. Has there been a breakthrough? What can the Ukrainians expect?
Even before the war, anticipating its outbreak, the Americans and British began to deliver Javelin and NLAW launchers en masse to Ukraine, which had a devastating effect in the first days of the war. Western anti-tank weapons destroyed whole columns of Russian heavy equipment travelling along the main roads.
Nevertheless, war is rapidly evolving. The Russian command changed the tactics of war using its own dominance of firepower. Thus, artillery came to the fore. The Kremlin, with its massive superiority in artillery systems, began to pound the Ukrainian positions with a sea of shells. The West then responded by sending advanced NATO artillery systems. Mobile French Ceasars, Polish Krabs, German Panzerhaubitze, British and Norwegian M109s, and American, towed M777s, provided a conventional response to the Russian shelling. However, the most significant impact, and one of the technological game changers of this war, was the HIMARS rocket artillery. In the end, the Ukrainians got less than 40 of them, but their precise firing from beyond the range of Russian systems made a devastating impact on the aggressor forces. Destroying Russian logistics, weapons & ammunition depots, bridges, HIMARS very effectively and gradually degraded the superiority of Kremlin forces. In parallel, the delivery of the first armoured vehicles began, including M113s, which were donated by many countries, as well as a massive batch of T-72 tanks donated by Poland, of which Warsaw officially delivered 260 and unofficially over 300. 60 more were added by the Czechs and Slovenes. Thus rearmed, Ukraine, which, it should be recalled, also took over hundreds of pieces of Russian equipment, took advantage of Russia's logistical collapse and launched two major counter-offensives - at Kharkiv and Kherson. Earlier still, it forced the Russians to withdraw from Kyiv and Chernihiv.
The Kremlin again tried to adjust tactics to the unfavourable outcomes at the front. The Syrian executioner General Surovikin was put in charge of the troops. Two strategic decisions were also taken. The first concerned the mobilisation of 300,000 conscripts, which Putin had promised at the start of the war he would not do. The second was launching massive missile attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, among other things supported by Iranian drones - primarily aiming at energy facilities. Moscow wanted to freeze Ukrainians, at best expecting them to turn against the Kyiv authorities or at least lead to another wave of mass migration to the West. Neither of these scenarios came to fruition - the Ukrainians once again demonstrated that this is a war of the whole nation, undertaken by everyone in the discomfort of their homes, often freezing and dark. Russia's reaction to the Ukrainians' perseverance was predictable - more death. The attacks targeting apartment blocks are further manifestations of the Russian genocide campaign.
Here, too, we could see a tailored Western response. The Allies began to transfer air defence systems - after months of promises, German Gepard and IRIS-T systems arrived, and deliveries of NASAMS and Patriot systems, some of the best of their kind in the world, were also promised.
For the sake of formality, it should be stressed that there is a hierarchy of donors - with the United States being the clear leader, followed by countries such as the United Kingdom and Poland, then there is Germany, France, Sweden, Finland, the Czech Republic and the Baltic States. The compliments or criticism that falls on individual Nato countries is closely linked to the military-economic potential of the country and its per capita support. And so, it is hard to ask the Baltic three or Poland to do more for Ukraine than they are doing now. Germany, on the other hand, despite its single deliveries of Gepards, Iris-T systems or M270s, has come in for deep criticism because of its status as an economic power - let us recall it is the biggest world economy, just after the US, China and Japan, with a thriving military industry. To Berlin’s disadvantage, Germany is also very close to Ukraine, geographically.
Nevertheless, in general, it can be seen that the West's military assistance has each time been tailored to the current needs of the Ukrainians. How can this be assessed? On the one hand, positively, neither country has official alliance commitments to Kyiv and Western supplies are a key factor in defending Ukrainian independence. On the other hand, each time carefully calibrated Western aid is often the bare minimum to help Ukrainians survive. NATO and the allies had and have the potential to open their military floodgates much wider to Ukraine, but for various reasons, they do not do so. Despite many pacifist arguments about not escalating or limiting supplies because of the difficult economic situation, it must be remembered that from a strategic point of view, Ukraine is doing the darkest job possible for NATO.
First and foremost, it is shedding its blood for its own independence, but nevertheless also for a world order that favours the allied countries. If Kyiv and Ukraine were to fall, this order would be in great danger. Thus, the security and prosperity the West has enjoyed for years would also be in great trouble. This social model is today sustained by the Ukrainians. Of course, they are fighting for their country first, but this convergence of interests is evident and should be reflected in greater arms supplies to Ukraine.
All the more so as the Russians, after many attempts to change tactics, massive degradation of equipment and gut-wrenching sanctions, are left with increasingly primitive methods of fighting. The subsequent waves of Russian mobilisation are probably only a matter of time. The aim is to go after the Ukrainians over the corpses of their own soldiers, thus implementing tactics that have been perfectly familiar to the Kremlin for hundreds of years. Already, Ukrainians fighting in Soledar or Bakhmut report Russian soldiers being sent to certain death by their own commanders. Nevertheless, even though we have the 21st century, fifth-generation aircraft, artillery that can hit a target from 300 kilometres with metre accuracy, or drone and satellite reconnaissance, if not adequately addressed, such tactics can be effective.
Even putting aside the moral rationale, which some would argue has no place in geopolitics, such a scenario is not in the core interests of most NATO countries.
The Ramstein events of 20 January 2023 were to be the final manifestation of this irresistible conclusion. Was it such? Yes and no.
On 20 January, the third conference of NATO countries and allies of the Ukrainian cause took place. The two previous on-site conferences had resulted in a significant increase in military aid, but the third conference greatly trumped the previous ones. The Ramstein meeting may be one of the highlights of this war, but the drastic breakthrough that many expected did not happen.
The dividing line was drawn by the equipment the Ukrainians need most. Western tanks.
Even before the start of the conference, observers and the public were already warming up to the subject of the Western-made tanks that Ukraine was eventually to get. London broke the first impasse by delivering 14 of its own-made Challenger 2 tanks. However, while this support is commendable, in the long run, the main favourite for the main tank of the Ukrainian armed forces to regain lost territory is only one - the German Leopard 2. This is the most widely used modern tank in Europe, the number of which on the old continent runs into thousands. Europe has the quantities and the logistics to make the Leopards the primary tool for defending Ukrainian independence. And because of the tank's country of origin, eyes were pointed in only one direction - at Germany. Berlin had indicated for a long time that it could not hand the Leopards of older versions lying in storage over to Ukraine, for reasons of caution, lack of escalation and similar synonyms. Last August, it also unofficially refused to allow the transfer of Spanish Leopards to Ukraine. Madrid had planned to transfer the tanks to Kyiv, but quickly withdrew its offer. Recently, coming under increasing pressure, Germany unofficially declared that it would only consider sending Leopards if the Americans sent their Abrams tanks. Washington replied that the Abrams run on rocket fuel, while the Leopards run on diesel, This, combined with their widespread use in Europe and logistical background, makes the Leopards a much better resource for Ukraine.
As a consequence of all the fuss, even before the Ramstein conference, Poland came ahead by declaring the transfer of a company of its own Leopard 2 tanks. Warsaw, through the mouths of its politicians, even stated that it would do so with or without Berlin's consent. This way, Poland exposes itself to a breach of contract, but its importance pales compared to the significance of the whole disorder. If the unauthorised transfer eventually occurs, German industry may impose contractual penalties on the Poles. Still, the cost of these would be a tiny fraction of the price of Germany's image damage, which could run into billions of euros. Chancellor Scholz, anticipating the dissatisfaction of his armaments industry, which is bound to lose many military contracts, had earlier promised an investment of 100 billion euros in the army. What is impossible to quantify is Berlin's visceral damage in the eyes of the rest of Europe and Ukraine. It is hard not to see Germany's attitude as supportive of the current status quo, including Ukraine's current division. Without serious German support and without the Leopards, a stalemate on the frontline, favourable for Russia, is increasingly possible. Berlin seems to regard a total victory of Ukraine and a total defeat of Russia as a potential threat to Germany's long-term geopolitical weight.
Thus the long-awaited Ramstein has finally arrived. However, those hoping for a drastic breakthrough may have been disappointed. The new German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius was quick to declare that an agreement on the Leopards had not been reached and that "many NATO countries still have objections". The German did not clarify which countries he meant. Declaratively, only Germany and Hungary have given signals that they do not want such a move.
So, on the one hand, Ramstein was disappointing, an expression of the greatest division within NATO since the beginning of the war, regardless of the diplomatic courtesy of politicians.
But, on the other hand, Ramstein and the days leading up to the conference brought a wave of military commitments, the scale far surpassing previous ones. This is the culmination of a coalition of the willing. Ukraine has not received, until now, such a large package of heavy equipment. Let's take a closer look.
Firstly - tanks.
The main headlines have been about 14 British Challengers and 14 Polish Leopards, although this has yet to be confirmed. More important is the information about the transfer of 90 Czech T-72 tanks, paid for by the Americans and the Dutch, as well as an unspecified next batch of Polish T-72s. Experts estimate the number to be around 100-150. Several dozen French AMX-10RCs supplement this. Military purists will argue that this is not a tank, so let's call it a light tank. Anyway, in total, we have 250-300 tanks.
In addition, Kyiv will get at least 100 mobile artillery pieces - of which 19 Caesars, donated by Denmark, must be highlighted. These are all Caesars that Copenhagen has in its arsenal. The Swedish Archers, 12 of them, described as the best in the world, will also go to Ukraine for the first time. The line-up is completed by British AS90s, American M109s, or Slovakian Danas donated by the Scandinavian countries and Germany. Kyiv will also get another hundred towed artillery pieces, mainly from the US and Estonia.
The immense power boost brings the next component- armoured vehicles of all kinds. The total declared number of these exceeds 1,600. Here the Anglo-Saxons dominate. The British will donate 200 Bulldog armoured vehicles, the Canadians 200 Senator vehicles, while the Americans will donate 100 M113 vehicles, 109 Bradley vehicles, 250 M1117 vehicles, 90 Styker vehicles, 500 HMMWVs and 100 MRAP vehicles. Added to this are French Bastions, German Marders and Swedish CV90s totalling 110.
All this is complemented by state-of-the-art air defence systems - NASAMS, Patriot and Avenger, helicopters from Lithuania and Latvia and ammunition for months of fighting ahead. This includes GLSDB missiles with a range of 150km. Furthermore, it is clear that we do not know everything. For example, Finland's next aid package is worth more than €400 million, which could include a lot of modern equipment of various types.
Overall, there is tremendous combat value, but it continues to be a meticulously calibrated aid. Two key positions i.e. western tanks and fighter planes, are still blocked. But cracks can be seen in this blockade too. The German defence minister has ordered an inventory of its own Leopards, suggesting preparations for shipment should such a decision come. The Dutch, on the other hand, are ready to talk about handing over the F-16s.
In summary, it can be said NATO remains firmly committed to defending Ukraine, "for as long as it takes", as says Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin; on the other hand, it continues not to decide to take Ukrainian support to the next level. The spring will bring further significant developments. Many are expecting a Russian offensive. Hundreds of Western equipment will undoubtedly help the Ukrainians to defend themselves, but will they allow new units to be formed to drive the aggressor out of the country? Neither is out of the question. Summing up the conference, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksi Reznikov said Ukraine was satisfied with the aid level, while not all the commitments had been announced publicly.
