Russia crawls forward, just as F-16s are set to arrive in Ukraine.

When the Russians enjoy general superiority on the frontline—be it numerical, artillery, or air—and are advancing toward Pokrovsk or Chasiv Yar, a number of phenomena and processes are taking place in the background that seems less optimistic for the Kremlin.

F-16s and Mirage fighter aircraft in Ukrainian skies? The methodical destruction of S-300 and S-400 systems with ATACAMs? Or, finally, more sanctions that, in the words of Russian Central Bank Deputy Governor Vladimir Chistyukhin, threaten to kill the Russian economy?

The past month has brought little change on the front lines, but a lot has occurred in the diplomatic offices.

The frontline

Let's start with a quick fly-by of the front line, which remains essentially static.

In the direction of Kharkiv, all the momentum of the Russian incursion has been wiped out. The Russians were even repulsed at the some places. As Vitaly Ganchev, the Russian governor of the occupied territories of the Kharkiv region, stated, "The Ukrainians are sending reserves and trying to counterattack where they meet resistance from Russian troops.”

Moving on, the front remained unchanged by the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. The first noticeable change was the Russian capture of Bilohorivka, west of Sevierdonetsk, at the end of May.

The centre of gravity remains Chasiv Yar, where the Russians managed to approach the city slightly to the east and northeast.

The battle for Toretsk, 20 kilometers south of Chasiv Yar, is also imminent. The Russians have launched offensive operations there since June 18. However, the forces deployed do not allow to think about tactical successes for the time being. The goal is inevitably to further fragment the Ukrainian troops. In addition, the Institute for the Study of War believes that the offensive on Toretsk is intended to prevent the Ukrainians from counterattacking and flanking artillery fire from the south on the attacking Russian troops in the direction of Chasiv Yar, as well as to those fighting in the direction of Avdiivka.

That is also where you can see the most visible part of the Russian gains. Kremlin forces managed to take Ocheretyne. They have also advanced around Novopokrovske, Umanske and Netailove.

The goal of the operations in this direction is to reach Pokrovsk, through which the extremely important roads M-30 and H-32 pass.

There were no major developments on the rest of the front. More important was what happened behind the front and in diplomatic offices.

F-16s and quarrels in the family

Inevitably, the failure of the Russian attack near Kharkiv is related not only to the tough stance of the Ukrainian defenders but also to the long-awaited permission for the Americans to use their manufactured weapons to strike directly into Russian territory. The green light comes with the caveat that only border regions where the Russians are amassing combat assets can be targeted. Nevertheless, this is a major breakthrough that makes it much easier for Kyiv to defend itself against cross-border attacks that can now be nipped in the bud.

Russian "warmongers" have reacted rather harshly, yet expectedly, suggesting that the Kremlin should respond with a "demonstrative nuclear explosion”.

But perhaps an even bigger breakthrough is the sight of the long-awaited silhouette of an F-16 aircraft across Ukrainian skies. We will most likely see it later this summer. On June 13, this information was confirmed by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. "We are working diligently to make sure that the Ukrainians have what they need, and the goal is to get those F-16s to them this summer," - Brown said at a press conference after a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Belgium. His words were confirmed moments later by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who said he was "optimistic" that F-16s would be delivered to Ukraine this summer.

The first declarations of delivery of multirole Lockheed Martin-produced aircraft were made already a year ago - so what numbers are we talking about? The "F-16 Coalition" currently consists of four countries: Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium and Norway.

Last year, the Danes promised 19 aircraft, to be delivered in 2024 and 2025. The Danish F-16s will be the first to go to Ukrainian pilots. The Dutch, on the other hand, will deliver 24 of the 42 aircraft flying under the Dutch flag.

"From this summer, I expect that the first F-16s will actually be delivered to Ukraine [...] Denmark will be the first country to provide airframes and we will follow after Denmark" - said Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren.

The pool of Ukrainian F16s will also be reinforced by 30 of the same aircraft from another Benelux country, Belgium. Brussels signed a defence agreement with Kyiv in which it promised to hand over 30 planes by 2028. However, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the first Belgian F16s are expected to be delivered this year, which he confirmed in late May. However, the delivery schedule also depends on how soon the Belgians receive their F35s.

The "F16 coalition" is completed by Norway, which intends to transfer all its aircraft of this class to the Ukrainians. Although Oslo has 22 aircraft, it is speculated that 12 are operational. The others could be scanned for spare parts.

Thus, we are talking about a total of 85-90 aircraft, meaning even 7 squadrons. Still, it is certain that they will appear at least in the perspective of the next few dozen months. However, if they actually materialize in this number, they would represent 70% of the number that would be necessary to achieve air equilibrium with Russia. These are the estimates of Volodymyr Zelensky himself, who put the number at 120-130 aircraft of the F-16 class.

"We should understand that we should not expect a quick effect, as we must understand that the pilots must get used to the airspace of Ukraine, as combat missions are somewhat different from training flights. In addition, we understand that we will be receiving F-16s partially. Of course, in order to effectively perform tasks of varying complexity, we need a lot of these aircraft. Everything will depend on how many and what modification they will be delivered to Ukraine" - with these words, Ilya Yevlash, head of the Ukrainian Air Force, confirmed that the F-16s will not be a panacea for all Ukraine's problems, especially in the initial stage, when there will be few of them.

David Sharp - a military analyst -  that initially, the Ukrainian F16s will carry out less risky missions, such as shooting down Russian cruise missiles or drones. Over time, they will begin to fly missions closer to the front lines, with greater impact but also greater risk. Over time, there will be confrontations with Russian aircraft, including the Su-35, and they will also be fiercely hunted by S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft defences.

The success of the F-16s will largely depend on the armament with which they are equipped. Last September, a representative of the Ukrainian Air Force stated that Ukraine would receive the latest AIM-120 missiles with a range of up to 160-180 kilometres.

However, the issue of F-16 aircraft is not free of problems and disagreements, which has not arisen for the first time on the Washington-Kyiv line. In particular, it concerns pilot training because, at the current rate of their training, we can reach a paradox, where the Ukrainians will have fewer trained pilots than F-16 aircraft. Why?

Ukrainian pilots and maintenance workers are currently being trained at a base in Tucson, Arizona, as well as in Denmark, and are expected to begin training in Romania. The Pentagon reported that the first group of Ukrainian pilots has already completed training, but it is uncertain how many Ukrainian pilots have already finished it and how many are currently undergoing training. Most likely, we're talking about two dozen pilots in training or undergoing training - in the U.S. and Europe combined. That is far too few.

Especially since the Ukrainians must have more pilots than planes. One pilot per fighter would mean that the aircraft would be idle for some time. "That’s unacceptable, especially since there are so few of them and they’ll be a priority target for Russia" - claims the aforementioned Sharp. According to Politico's source at the U.S. Department of Defense, Ukraine will need two pilots for each F-16, in which case the 12 pilots who should be ready by July are enough for only six aircraft. In total, however, Kyiv needs between 150 and 200 pilots for the F-16s already promised by the coalition partners. It would be a great waste for Ukraine to have operational F-16s that it cannot adequately staff.

Ukrainians' frustration is focused on the Americans, who are once again using their influence to oversee the war - at least that’s the claim. This is according to Ukrainian parliamentarian Oleksandra Ustinova, who said that the Americans were "deliberately delaying" pilot training, which could result in Kyiv having more planes than people to fly them. Why would they be intentionally delaying? Basically, the US could be worried that the arrival of large numbers of F16s on the front lines could hit the Russian side too hard and lead to a cascading military collapse and, ultimately a dangerous internal transition in Russia - something the Americans are trying to avoid at all costs in this war and have demonstrated on more than one occasion.

The Ukrainians say they have 30 pilots ready to begin training today. Fortunately, other training sites are slowly opening up.

The French may come to the rescue. According to Le Monde, the French Air Force has promised to train 26 Ukrainian pilots over the next two years. The Danes promise to train 20 pilots by the end of 2024. In Romania, 8 pilots are to begin training, and 12 at a time can be trained by the Americans in Tucson. Let's not forget that the training also applies to all maintenance personnel. Yet, it is clear that if there is a political decision for a larger wave of training, the means and opportunities will be there.

Interestingly, F-16s are not the only fourth-generation fighters Ukraine may receive.

Swedish JAS 39 Gripen remain an open question. On May 31, 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson signed a security agreement that calls for $6.5 billion in Swedish aid to Ukraine between 2024 and 2026.

"A unique part of the agreement with Sweden is the provision of specialized ASC 890 aircraft, as well as the prospect of providing Ukraine with JAS 39 Gripen aircraft, including relevant training." - says a statement by President Zelensky.

In early June, Emmanuel Macron also, surprisingly, announced that Ukrainians could expect a transfer of French Dassault Mirage-2000. The French president told TF1 television that Ukrainian pilots could begin training on the Mirages in late summer, and given a six-month training period, this would mean that the Mirages would arrive in Ukraine by the end of the year at the earliest.

But this is not the last French aircraft to appear in the infosphere recently in connection with Ukraine. The Infobae portal speculates that Javier Milei's government has a plan to deliver five Super Etendard Modernise fighters to Ukraine. These are quite old, but recently modernized units - they were overhauled in 2019. However, Argentina is unable to use them due to a British embargo on certain parts, still linked to the Falklands saga. The government of Javier Milei is clearly working on the image of breaking with the prevailing neutrality of the countries of the "global south" regarding the war in Ukraine.

Of course, the introduction of all types of such advanced weapons raises a number of problems—mainly logistical and related to the handling of these aircraft. These problems are already appearing with just two types of fourth-generation aircraft, not to mention four.

Retired US Air Force Colonel Jeffrey Fischer commented on the situation as follows: "While I believe there is risk for Ukraine to take on a second fighter, I also believe I understand why they are doing it [...] The Biden administration has slow-rolled F-16 delivery to the point that Zelensky is fed up and willing to assume the risk associated with standing up a second Western fighter jet capability."

ATACAMS sows havoc

Ukrainians, meanwhile, are not inactive in anticipation of Western aircraft. What does this manifest itself in? First of all, in the systematic and methodical work put into destroying enemy air defense systems.

In Crimea alone, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have destroyed 15 air defence systems in the past 2 months. This includes the S-300, S-350 and the latest S-400. At the time of this writing, the number of destroyed units has further increased and may have even included the S-500 system. As Russian air defences weaken, the Strategic Command has stated that "The day of the liberation of the Ukrainian Crimea is approaching"

The case is quite clear. Ukrainian forces may seek to actively degrade Russian air defenses before Ukraine receives a significant number of western aircraft.

The 2-month period appears here not coincidentally - the data coincides with the moment of the first ATACAMS missiles being handed over to the Ukrainians, which the Ukrainians immediately harnessed to destroy Russian anti-access systems.

In mid-May, the Ukrainians bombed the Belbek base with at least 10 ATACAMS, destroying the very valuable S-400 systems, which are theoretically designed to deny ATACAMS, but are unable to do so and fall victim to them themselves.

The Ukrainians can therefore work on meticulously destroying Russian anti-access capabilities, and when they have done so sufficiently, introduce F16s more widely.

This is precisely the concern of some Russian mil bloggers. Some Russian observers are worried that if the Ukrainians follow U.S. attack doctrine, they will attack air defense batteries first. After that, "the F-16-based aviation comes into play, with a wide range of munitions under its wings," - says a report translated by WarTranslated.

Territorially, the vast majority of Ukrainian targets are located in occupied Crimea. On June 23, footage of a Ukrainian attack that resulted in shrapnel falling on a beach and killing at least 5 people circulated around the world. Russia called the attack barbaric. But the beach itself is in close proximity to the Belbek base. Available footage also shows the Russians placing radars and other elements of anti-aircraft systems on Crimean beaches or cliffs, with little regard for civilians who also beach in close proximity to military installations.

For these reasons, says Olivia Yanchik of the Atlantic Council, the Russian occupation of Crimea is slowly becoming intolerable.

The Kremlin has already had to withdraw its Black Sea Fleet from its base in Sevastopol, and its ability to operate in the western Black Sea basin is at high risk of being lost.

“The next stage of this effort is now underway, with Ukraine methodically depleting Russian air defenses and exposing the entire peninsula to further attack. Ukraine is expected to receive the first F-16 fighter jets in the coming months, setting the stage for what is likely to be a broader air campaign against Russia’s extensive surviving military infrastructure throughout Crimea. With its air defenses decimated and supply lines under threat, the Russian army in Crimea may soon face the realization that its position is no longer sustainable.” - writes Yanchik.

Just peace

Reclaiming Crimea seems like an unrealistic goal today, but Ukrainians believe their country will eventually return to its 1991 borders. To support this long-term goal, the United States made a formal commitment on June 13. That's when the Joe Biden administration signed a 10-year security agreement with Ukrainian authorities. Similar documents have already been signed by the Ukrainians with many other countries, such as the aforementioned Sweden. But when it comes to the world's largest military superpower, it is worth saying a little more.

The document builds on a long-standing White House strategy that "Recognizes the need to preserve and promote Ukraine’s sovereignty, democracy, and capacity to deter and respond to current and future external threats"

What does that mean in practice? The agreement does not detail specific types of arms, declared amounts, or a timetable, but it does provide a glimpse of some important points.

First of all, it emphasizes Washington's commitment to help Ukraine not only during this war, but also during subsequent Russian attempts to be launched against Ukraine in the future. This is a rather important provision against speculations of abandoning Kyiv when a peace agreement is signed.

In addition, the document emphasizes the willingness of the two countries to exchange intelligence, with the Americans pledging to help the Ukrainians build the necessary institutions, including counterintelligence. The agreement also calls on the Ukrainians to continue and improve their legal system and anti-corruption institutions.

Washington recognized in the "Just Peace" section that "Ukraine will not be secure until its sovereignty and territorial integrity are fully restored through a just peace that respects Ukraine’s rights under international law, including the UN Charter.” This is a critical provision for Kyiv, as it theoretically prevents Western pressure for a possible forced peace at the expense of Ukrainian territory.

The two sides detail all areas of the military and economic struggle in an annex to the agreement. The Americans promise to support the Ukrainians in air defence, fires, ground manoeuvre, air warfare, naval warfare, or cybesecurity. Another specific provision falls under this section.

"The United States commits to coordinate with Ukraine, and work toward procurement of squadrons of modern fighter aircraft, sustainment, armament, and associated training to support fourth-generation fighter capability (including, but not limited to, F-16 multi-role aircraft)"

So we are talking about squadrons (plural) of multi-role aircraft. Although, theoretically, American support for Kyiv's adaptation of aircraft transferred from Europe could fall under this provision. It may, but it doesn't have to, which leaves the door open for the transfer of F-16s to the Ukrainians from their largest user.

The White House notes that the agreement would serve as a bridge to Ukraine's future accession to NATO.

Of course, while the signing of such agreements is important, it should be noted that they are not binding on America's next president. Agreements, unlike treaties, are not ratified by Congress, so Donald Trump - if he wins - will be able to terminate it.

On the other hand, this is how the world of diplomacy works, and such moves should not be trivialized. The agreement is not "ironclad" like the North Atlantic Treaty, i.e. NATO, is in theory, but it defines the framework and the assumptions of both sides - and in that sense it is certainly a step in the right direction.

All the more so as the Americans have backed up the agreement with concrete action, announcing the redirection of orders for Patriot systems to Ukraine, the Financial Times reported. U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby confirmed that the U.S. had made the "difficult but necessary decision" to prioritize the delivery of Patriot missiles and NASAMS to Ukraine, delaying deliveries to other countries that had purchased them, so that Kyiv could maintain its stockpile "at a crucial time in the war" - reads the FT.

After a few days, another Patriot-related information followed. Now it would be Israel that would consider transferring as many as 8 batteries to Ukraine. The Israeli variant is not the newest, but it would be an invaluable resource for Ukraine's air defence forces. Considering that the penetration of Ukrainian skies is one of Kyiv's biggest concerns today, both pieces of news are very promising for Ukraine.

"Axis of Evil" episode 76

On the other side of the new Iron Curtain, Vladimir Putin flew to meet the North Korean leader for the first time in 25 years.

"The Russian president was met with a rapturous welcome in Pyongyang. Children waved Russian flags as Putin’s giant picture adorned one side of Kim Il Sung square, while footage broadcast on Russian state media showed posters of the Kremlin leader lining the streets." - says the CNN report.

The two leaders signed an comprehensive strategic partnership pact that includes clauses similar to NATO's Article V, which, according to Putin, provide "for the provision of mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the parties to this agreement.” In other words, the two sides are promising each other mutual military assistance in times of escalating conflict with neighbours and the West. This raises serious questions.

Especially from South Korea, which suddenly gets a direct reason to weaken Russia, as it formally becomes a military ally of the DPRK.

And it didn't take long for the South Koreans to announce that are considering supplying arms to the Ukrainians. Seoul was already doing this, mostly in the form of artillery ammunition, but the statement can be read as a desire to continue or even increase this assistance.

Vladimir Putin acted with his standard "veiled intimidation" of South Korea not to do so. The potential of the two Koreas, like their commitment, is quite different. The North is eager to engage strongly and can offer many low-specialized assets to buy the favour of the Russians - such as cheap labor, which Kim has already announced he will send to Donbas, or 152mm artillery ammunition, as he has already done.

On the other hand, the South will not enter the war as strongly as the North in relative terms, but it can reinforce Ukraine with much more advanced technology. Let's not forget that we are talking about a country whose economy is nominally about the size of Russia and which is not at war. Seoul is also able to supply 155mm ammunition for Ukrainian needs. So are we going to see a proxy war of ammunition on the Korean peninsula?

Immediately after Putin managed to return from the far east, a problem erupted at its southern tip, where armed sectarian unrest broke out in Dagestan, reportedly killing 15 people. Problems based on nationality or motivated by religious extremism are a constant worry for the Kremlin, which seeks to maintain relative order in the Federation. Another outbreak, barely three months after the Crocus City massacre that left 145 dead and 551 wounded, shows that the war-ravaged country is increasingly out of control. If people who want to take advantage of the situation, such as criminals, warlords or terrorists, feel more and more emboldened, the central authority will face problems from two sides: external and internal, with the latter dangerously growing.

Meanwhile, both the EU and the United States are steadily introducing successive rounds of sanctions to target new sectors and individuals and to patch up the holes that have been created. The 14th package of EU sanctions had just such a goal - patching holes - and also imposed restrictions on LNG exports.

As a result of this and the overall financial situation, Russia's hitherto giant and once one of the largest companies in the world - Gazprom - has hit a new low. As recently as June 2022, at the height of the energy crisis, Gazprom was valued at $130 billion. A year later, it has lost more than four times its value as a result of the Kremlin's policies, and its valuation is a modest $30 billion.

The U.S. sanctions, in turn, have again hit the Russian financial system, making it even more difficult to intake foreign currency. It created additional barriers for non-Russian entities wishing to trade with Russia and created the risk of retaliatory sanctions.

It even went so far that the first deputy governor of the Central Bank of Russia declared "the threat of death to the Russian economy as a result of sanctions". A new wave of Western sanctions, along with the massive blocking of bank payments, including by countries considered "friendly," could lead to the "death" of the Russian economy. This was stated by the First Deputy Governor of the Bank of Russia Vladimir Chistyukhin at a meeting of the International Legal Forum in St. Petersburg. "If there are no normal payments for products under foreign economic activity, for our country, which is dependent on both exports and imports, this is simply everything, this is death" Czystiukhin added.

Also worth mentioning is the "Ukrainian peace summit," which did not produce any breakthroughs, but did confirm two things. First, China's "alleged" neutrality. Neither Xi Jinping nor the Chinese delegation showed up at the conference, underscoring once again which side Beijing is on in this war. Second, the G7 leaders finally agreed to provide Ukraine with a $50 billion loan based on frozen Russian assets.

The totality of these developments - both on the front lines and in the diplomatic sphere - means that a theme we reported on a month ago is starting to appear more and more in the mainstream media. Namely, that the passage of time is not necessarily working to Ukraine's disadvantage.

Two weeks after our report, Bloomberg commented in a similar vein. Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky followed: “The enemy clearly understands that the gradual arrival of weapons and equipment from our partners, the arrival of the first F-16s, strengthens our air defences," he wrote. "Time is one our side and their chances of success will diminish."

"Therefore, the command of Russia’s troops is currently making every effort to increase the intensity and expand the geography of hostilities in order to maximize the depletion of our troops, disrupt the training of reserves, and prevent the transition to active offensive actions" - he added in a statement on social media.

This position is also confirmed by visual tracking by journalists from the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung. Using satellite imagery and AI models, they examined tank and heavy equipment depots in Russia. Their conclusions coincide with those increasingly reported in the community - 4 out of 5 tanks that Russia is sending to Ukraine are at best old, powdered, rusty machines that have been under the sky for many years. The notion again reappears that it is a maximum of 2 more years, that Russia would still have forces capable of waging a war of the scale and intensity of today's.

All this is not to say that Ukraine is on the road to triumph today - not at all. Some things are out of its control - such as international support, which is an indispensable element of its war of independence. However, Kyiv has issues it has to deal with on its own - much will depend on how effective the Ukrainian draft is. Nevertheless, the negative trajectory that Kyiv has been on for months seems to be reversing.

Ukraine remains in a very difficult frontline situation and will remain so for at least the next few months. According to analysts of Rochan Consulting, Russia will have a window of opportunity for about 3 more months - after which, as a result of the arrival of new, trained Ukrainian recruits and the arrival of - perhaps - modern Ukrainian aviation, the frontline situation may stall or even begin to reverse. Given the Russian gains, albeit very slow, the whole thing starts to look bleak for the Kremlin, and the months are ticking away inexorably.

Have we already passed the halfway point of the war? Unless something unexpected happens, such as China entering the war in an explicitly aggressive way, e.g. by supplying heavy arms, one can venture to say that - yes, we are.

Sources:

1. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-official-says-ukraine-pouring-troops-into-contested-kharkiv-region-2024-06-17/
2. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/27/7462978/
3. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/think-tank-close-kremlin-says-russia-should-consider-demonstrative-nuclear-2024-05-29/
4. https://www.airandspaceforces.com/brown-goal-ukraine-first-f-16s-summer
5. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-defense-chief-optimistic-f-16s-will-be-transferred-to-ukraine-this-summer/3250149
6. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/28/7189113/https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1795358045733564527
7. https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/norway-22-f-16-transfer-ukraine#
8. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crgy4gkqkddo
9. https://unn.ua/en/news/no-immediate-effect-is-expected-from-receiving-the-f-16-as-the-pilots-have-to-adapt-to-ukrainian-airspace
10. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/06/12/right-weapon-wrong-timing
11. https://kyivindependent.com/first-group-of-ukrainian-pilots-completes-f-16-training-in-us/
12. https://kyivindependent.com/delays-to-f-16-training-ukrainian-mp-says/
13. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/05/ukraine-f-16-pilot-training-00161742
14. https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/06/27/denmark-conclude-pilot-training-ukraine/
15. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/31/7187150/
16. https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/ukrayina-ta-shveciya-pidpisali-bezpekovu-ugodu-91233
17. https://breakingdefense.com/2024/06/french-mirage-2000-fighters-are-headed-to-ukraine-heres-how-kyiv-will-use-them/
18. https://infobae.com/politica/2024/06/11/el-plan-disenado-por-el-gobierno-de-milei-para-entregarle-a-ucrania-cinco-aviones-de-combate-super-etendard/
19. https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/has-argentina-offered-to-give-ukraine-five-super-etendard-fighters
20. https://unn.ua/en/news/in-crimea-the-defense-forces-destroyed-about-15-air-defense-systems-in-almost-two-months
21. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/35042
22. https://www.rferl.org/a/crimea-ukraine-russia-s-400-missile/32996909.html
23. https://www.understandingwar.org/
24. https://unn.ua/img/2024/06/17/1718628742-2515-large.webp
25. https://www.globaldefensecorp.com/2024/06/17/atacms-are-blowing-up-russian-s-400-anti-air-missiles-before-f-16-becomes-operational/
26. https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1800935956872298950/photo/1
27. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/23/shrapnel-from-missile-fired-by-ukraine-hits-tourists-crimea/
28. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraine-is-making-the-russian-occupation-of-crimea-untenable/
29. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/06/13/bilateral-security-agreement-between-the-united-states-of-america-and-ukraine/
30. https://www.ft.com/content/89fe9d6b-3a0f-42a5-af50-cff7f457a12
31. https://www.wsj.com/world/u-s-israel-near-agreement-to-send-patriot-systems-to-ukraine-59438f1b
32. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/19/europe/analysis-putin-north-korea-visit-intl/index.html
33. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/19/putin-flies-into-pyongyang-to-waiting-kim-and-red-carpet-welcome
34. https://www.voanews.com/a/south-korea-will-consider-supplying-arms-to-ukraine-after-russia-north-korea-sign-strategic-pact/7676277.html
35. https://thediplomat.com/2024/04/north-korea-sends-workers-to-russia-occupied-territory-in-eastern-ukraine/
36. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-adopts-new-sanctions-against-russia-including-lng-2024-06-24/https://companiesmarketcap.com/gazprom/marketcap/
37. https://www.ft.com/content/1ba434bb-e579-4819-977b-cff6b6b98ecc
38. https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/06/26/v-tsb-zayavili-ob-ugroze-smerti-rossiiskoi-ekonomiki-iz-za-sanktsii-a135115
39. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraines-peace-summit-offers-solidarity-but-no-breakthroughs/
40. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-08/putin-is-running-out-of-time-to-achieve-breakthrough-in-ukraine?embedded-checkout=truehttps://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-official-says-ukraine-pouring-troops-into-contested-kharkiv-region-2024-06-17/
41. https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/06/18/russia-advance-f16-ukraine/https://x.com/Techjournalisto/status/1805993551270179289