- Hubert Walas
The collapse of the economy.
Day 5 of the war that will change our world.
The talks between the delegations from both sides took place, but the outcome remains unknown. Both delegations returned to their capitals to share the results of the negotiations with the country's leadership. The second round of talks is likely, which this time would take place in two days' time on the Polish-Belarusian border.
While Russia sits down at the negotiating table, it continues to commit war crimes. There is no other way to describe it, looking at today's images from Kharkiv, where Russian troops shelled residential buildings with Grads. This is clear evidence of the use of rocket artillery against civilians. Dozens killed, hundreds wounded, says an adviser to Ukraine's interior minister. President Zelensky in his address confirmed the death of 16 children.
On the morning of the 5th day of the war, the aggressor still did not capture any significant urban center on the territory of Ukraine. In the evening the attack on Kyiv and Kharkiv began again. The key city of Mariupol remains unconquered. On the other hand, the Russians claim to have captured the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant - as a reminder - it is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, as a reminder. Berdiansk has been seized - where brave civilians came out to greet the invaders.
Incompetence, losses, low morale are the characteristics of the Russian troops after 5 days of the invasion of Ukraine. On social media, we no longer see only destroyed and abandoned Russian equipment. There are also Russian vehicles towed by Ukrainian farmers and captives detained by ordinary citizens. Russian losses according to the Ukrainian staff are already over 5000 soldiers.
Ukrainian morale is soaring, the latest polls say that more than 70% of Ukrainians believe in victory, and support for President Zelensky has topped 90%. The whole nation is speaking out against the invaders. We can already see barricades being built by civilians to slow down the movement of the aggressor units. The attitude of the population is also being exploited by the state authorities. Information is published about the self-construction of Molotov cocktails and their effective use against vehicles.
However, it should be noted that some information is being verified over time - the Snake Island soldiers who were supposed to have been killed during the Russian attack are alive and have been taken, prisoner. This is a good example of information warfare and how the Ukrainians are using it to build morale. The legend of the "Ghost of Kyiv" also continues. - allegedly the pilot has already downed 14 enemy planes.
Despite the positive image that is being created around the actions of the Ukrainian army, the military situation remains very difficult, hence the urgent need for promised military assistance from the Western world. The war is not settled, and Russia still has the potential to win militarily, but it will not win over the Ukrainian fighting spirit.
Yet, Russians have still not achieved air dominance, contrary to the claims of the Russian command. There are new recordings of downings of Russian planes - these are the result of, inter alia, American stingers or Polish sets - Piorun. In addition, Ukrainian Bayraktars are flying in the air, hunting, among others, Russian BUK sets.
The night from Sunday to Monday brought great hope for the Ukrainian airforce, as the European Union decided to provide Ukraine with fighter planes. Still not fully official information talks about Polish, Slovakian, and Bulgarian MiG-29s, which Ukrainian pilots know very well. The EU has also decided to support the Ukrainian military with reconnaissance from space.
War makes it necessary to seek advantage in every way, which is why the Ukrainian President has decided to release from prison all those with military training to allow them to fight the enemy.
Furthermore, Zelensky has announced the formation of an International Legion, whereas more and more Western countries are giving the green light to volunteers who want to go to the front. This could be a very big boost, as they could include highly trained, well-equipped soldiers or ex-soldiers. Their task could be operations in the enemy's rear, sabotage, and diversion.
Kyiv is hoping for rapid delivery of the promised weapons. After several days of fighting, logistics on both sides are beginning to suffer badly. Deliveries from the west are coming mainly via Poland.
There is therefore a constant fear that the Russian command will attempt to cut off this direction by striking from the northwest, from Belarusian territory, on the Pinsk operational direction. The Russians may use the Belarusian army for this purpose, despite Lukashenko's declaration that this will not happen. It is clear, however, that the assurances of the Belarusian dictator are now worthless. It appears that he does not have even the slightest authority over Russian units operating on the territory of the country. The Belarusian forces in operations would not act autonomously but as part of the Russian forces. They are not troops with high capabilities, and their morale will certainly be inferior to Ukraine's, but they create a potential next front to distract Ukraine's forces.
In addition, the regime in Belarus, in a referendum set up yesterday, decided to have a permanent Russian military presence on its territory and to allow the presence of nuclear weapons. This is also very worrying news for Poland and the Baltic States in particular. Russian troops may now officially be stationed 200 km from Warsaw indefinitely.
An example of how things that usually take decades now might happen overnight is yesterday's statement by Ursula von der Layen, who said that Ukraine should join the European Union. Today, therefore, Ukrainians are fighting not only for survival but for a bright future that integration with the West can bring to Ukraine. Poland and Romania have already declared their support for this idea.
This was also the theme of Zelensky's address this morning when he said that the mistreatment of Ukrainians must stop. Today they are fighting for freedom, not only their own but that of the whole of Europe.
In the hours that followed, he signed Ukraine's application to join the European Union. The ball is now in Brussels' court.
The Union looks as united as ever. It suddenly appeared that the slow wheels of the European bureaucratic machine can be set in motion and act immediately. Some cracks are appearing, however, and that is Hungary's position. Budapest refuses to let deliveries for Ukraine fly over its territory, and the media in Hungary often reproduce the Kremlin's propaganda. When all this is over, Hungary's status as a neighbor or ally within the EU and NATO will be a big question mark.
Very surprisingly, even, the always neutral Switzerland has decided to break its sacred rule and has joined the EU sanctions. Bern has decided that, like the Union, it will freeze all assets of persons and companies on the European list. Japan has also joined the sanctions. The Nikkei has confirmed that the Bank of Japan has frozen Russian reserves. As of mid-June last year, they stood at $33 billion.
Therefore, Monday was to be the day of cataclysm for the Russian stock market, the moment when the economic power of the West would be revealed. The Kremlin made pre-emptive attempts to save the situation. It has decided not to open the stock market. In addition, the Russian Central Bank raised interest rates. Moscow raised the rates from 10 to 20% in one move. However, all this did not prevent the collapse of the value of a number of Russian assets.
On the London Stock Exchange - Gazprom and Lukoil lost more than 50% of their value, Rosneft more than 40%, similar declines were experienced by mining companies. The biggest slump was experienced by Sberbank, Russia's largest lender. It lost 75%. The European Central Bank has warned that the European arm of Sberbank may collapse.
The Russian rouble is also reaching a bottom. This is a chart from the 22 years of Putin's presidency. At this point, one rouble is worth less than one US dollar cent. The war in Ukraine is, in effect, depriving Russians of its savings. They are confused and are trying to withdraw money. Often these attempts are futile - cash becomes scarce and the financial system loses liquidity.
This is likely to lead to more and more protests by Russians, for whom the war will become more real every day now - lack of savings, sons or husbands being killed, problems with goods, or with the normal functioning of a state plagued by cyber-attacks.
It is important to remember that Russia is an enormous country, made up of many nations. If there is evidence of a collapse of the central government and a lack of executive power in the distant provinces, things could take an unexpected turn. In this respect, by invading Ukraine Putin has risked the whole project of Russia as a federation.
This is all the less logical because the Kremlin achieved many of its objectives before the invasion. It led to fractures in the unity of NATO or the European Union. It negotiated with Paris and Berlin on an equal footing, seeking to become a permanent and major player in the European security system. If it was not for invasion, France and Germany would still be doing business with Russia. So Putin, hitherto regarded in many capitals as a relatively sensible leader, has after a week fallen into total isolation, and today is closer to the image of Hitler. In one move, pacifist countries like Germany and neutral ones like Sweden and Finland are turning against Russia. Berlin wants to arm itself, and Stockholm and Helsinki are closer than ever to NATO membership. Russian assets around the world are frozen - including villas, or yachts of oligarchs.
The war in Ukraine is also a very important turning point for the biggest global rivalry, i.e. the clash between the United States and China. There is no doubt that the outcome of the war will have an extremely significant effect on China-US competition. If Ukraine defends itself and the weakness of Empire seeking Russia is exposed, China's closest ally will be much less useful to Beijing, thus the Chinese too will have to make adjustments to their grand strategy. Potentially, the Americans will thus also secure for themselves the second most important theatre of operations in the world, i.e. Europe, and will be able to concentrate on the Asia-Pacific without fear of upheaval in Europe. All the more so because the war seems to have made Europe, and more specifically the West, realize the need to seriously address the issue of its own security, as the biggest change in German policy for decades shows. The war in Ukraine is also a catalyst for the reunification of the western world - above all Europe and the United States. This is by no means in China's interest either.
In fact, the Ukrainians are indirectly fighting for American supremacy and the Western way of life, which many of us have taken for granted until now.
It should not be forgotten, however, that such a tense situation poses huge risks. The Kremlin is now unpredictable - the decision to attack is proof of that - and any decisive move by China towards Taiwan now threatens world war.
