- Hubert Walas
Ukrainian coalition.
The third day of the war for the conquest of the Ukrainian state began with a question about the situation in Kyiv. The city was defended, while the offensive slowed down a bit. Probably for the Russian forces to regroup. On the other hand, a fierce offensive was seen in the world of diplomacy and cyberspace.
Let us start Kyiv. There was fighting around city all night. Missile strikes continued (including on the Kyiv-Zhulany airport). Very heavy clashes took place in Vasylkovo near Kyiv, where the Ukrainian army repulsed an attack aimed at seizing a nearby airport.
This is only a prelude to the fighting that could ensue if a decision is taken to capture the city. The state authorities, headed by President V. Zelensky, are still in Kyiv and have no plans to evacuate. The authorities in the capital are also fulfilling their functions despite the very difficult situation. The city's metro has been completely transformed into a shelter for civilians. Preparations for defense are underway. Trenches are being dug, Molotov cocktails are being prepared. The morale of the inhabitants is very high. Groups of Russian saboteurs appear in the city and are being searched and eliminated.
Images of a rocket attack on a residential block in Kyiv circulated around the world this morning. Hitting civilian objects is inexplicable and has no justification. It is a violation of the international humanitarian law of armed conflict or rather further proof that the law of war does not exist in Russian operations.
What is more, the Russians are committing treachery. They are using Ukrainian uniforms. This is also an example of a violation of the laws of war.
In the broader picture, the offensive directions of the first two days continue. Kyiv continues to be the main target of the attack. Attempts to break through the capital's defenses have failed. But attacks will be made again.
The Russians did not make significant progress on the third day of the war. They did, however, seize Markivka and Stanitsa Luganskaya in the Lugansk region. They probably also took Melitopol, as Reuter confirms. Kyiv, Kherson, Mariupol are still defending. However, the latter city is in a particularly difficult position and may soon be encircled, with the Russians gaining a land bridge to Crimea.
Ships from the Black Sea fired "Kalibr" missiles towards Sumy, Poltava, and Mariupol. The Russian staff, reports that after Kyiv's rejection of the "surrender" offer, Russian troops are to resume the offensive in all directions.
On the night Ukrainians reported about the shooting down of two Russian Il-76s near Vasylkov, which were supposed to have Russian paratroopers on board. There are no photos of the wrecks, but the information is confirmed by American intelligence. If true, this would be a very strong blow to the Russians. Paratroopers are elite units. While one Il-76 can take up to 200 of them.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces maintains that at least in part their anti-aircraft defense (S-300) and aviation are working. This has made it possible to down the Il-76 and a Su-25. The Ukrainians report that in total they have already killed 3,500 Russian soldiers, destroyed more than 100 tanks, over 500 combat vehicles, and 14 fighters.
On the third day of the war, the internet on Ukrainian territory is working, as are telephones and banking systems. This may change, but for now, it appears that service interruptions are local and may be due to network overload, infrastructure damage, or warfare.
A powerful cyber-attack, however, came from a direction unexpected by the Kremlin. The hacker group Anonymous. The hackers blocked the Kremlin's official website, the Interfax agency and TASS. The websites of Gazprom and Sberbank were also down. Very stylish was the hacking of Russian state television channels, which began broadcasting the Ukrainian national anthem and symbols. Cyberattacks can paralyze the functioning of a state.
The Ukrainian army is calling for sabotage and diversionary actions against the Russian aggressor. This applies primarily to all actions that will slow down or prevent the movement of units - for example, blocking roads with felled trees, setting fire to forests where the enemy is stationed, shooting at the wheels of vehicles, disabling supply trucks. In order to confuse the enemy and make targets difficult to detect, residents are asked to dismantle village names and house numbers.
The war is on, but Ukraine is defending itself. It is defending itself much more effectively than many might have thought. It is therefore the West's duty to help the Ukrainian state. Anti-tank weapons, anti-aircraft weapons, shooting weapons, ammunition, and fuel are the minimum.
In this respect, Saturday brought good news for Kyiv. The reluctance of some countries - including Italy, Hungary, and, above all, Germany - to give more aid to Ukraine and to isolate Russia in the world is slowly breaking down.
A broad stream of military aid is being channeled to Ukraine. 27 countries have agreed to provide Ukraine with military equipment, ammunition, and fuel.
The brutal truth is that if Ukraine fell within the first 48 hours - there would be little willingness to help, and there would be pressure on Kyiv to make concessions in negotiations and surrender. But the Ukrainians are holding firm, so the lack of supplies is inexplicable to the Western voters in, let’s say, Germany. The latest news is that Berlin was to finally lift its own blockade on arms transfers to Ukraine.
Furthermore, a consensus appears to have been reached to exclude Russia from the SWIFT international exchange system. This is another billion-dollar war cost to be borne by Moscow. Some estimates are as high as $80billion. It is not a decisive blow, but it is a very strong one.
During the day, President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote a tweet thanking Turkey for blocking the Turkish straits for Russian warships. This would have been extremely significant news had it not been for the fact that Ankara did not confirm the news. Zelenski was either trying to exert pressure or the Turks changed their decision after the conversation.
The Polish President, Andrzej Duda, said that Poland will support Ukraine's immediate accession to the European Union, as well as is in favor of providing Ukraine with funds for reconstruction.
However, a breakthrough can be seen in Russia's sphere of influence. Kazakhstan has refused to send troops to Ukraine and has added that it does not recognize the independence of the separatist republics. Whereas, Kadyrov's Chechens have already appeared in Ukraine.
More and more countries are closing their own airspace to Russian airlines.
Finally, a bit of speculation. Unconfirmed news coming from the net seems to suggest that, to put it mildly, the Russians are not getting the whole operation right.
Let's start with a broader picture tweeted by Estonian MEP Riho Terras. He posted a Ukrainian intelligence report. Disclaimer - it is not verified. So what does this report say?
In short - the Russians had no tactical plan and the war is costing them $20billion a day. They are short of weapons, and there are only a few days' worths of missiles. The next productions would have to wait several months, but there are not enough materials to make them. If Ukraine holds out for 10 days, Moscow will have to start negotiations because there will be a shortage of money, weapons or resources. Alpha special forces are to prepare provocations on civilians, and Russia is to start causing panic among the population. Own comment - this could explain the "random" attacks on civil targets - apartment blocks, hospital, kindergarten.
A similar opinion, this time from the tactical standpoint, was presented on Twitter by Stanimir Dobrev:
On the third day of the war, the Russian offensive slowed down noticeably. The objectives that were set for the Russian army have not been met. Nor has there been any significant progress in the occupied territory. Kyiv has not been cut off and surrounded, the political authorities are still in office. Whether what we can observe 60 h after the start of operations is a deliberate tactic or the Russian blitzkrieg machine is broken.
In his opinion, the current situation is the result of a number of factors, as a result of which the image of the Russian army, which has been created in recent years, has been exposed. This concerns both troop training and logistics. This can be confirmed, for example, by reports of a shortage of supplies for Russian units. The causes of this state of affairs may be found in the omnipresent corruption in the Russian army, the falsification of information about the high level of combat readiness, or the creativity in creating reports for commanders and the state leadership. The supply troubles may have their genesis in the consumption of some stocks even before the start of operations, as well as in errors in the planning and implementation of replenishment on occupied territory. According to the author, we believed the official Russian messages that showed the power of the Russian military
Moreover, it indicates a disregard for Ukraine and the fighting spirit of the Ukrainians. Perhaps the Russian authorities were fed with the message of their own services about the weakness of the Ukrainian state, which they themselves believed. Ukraine's preparation for battle, determination and morale may have taken the aggressors by surprise and made it very difficult for Russian battalion tactical groups to operate. The author also notes that the missile attacks carried out were primarily aimed at intimidation. The targets were well-known stationary objects rather than places of concentration of Ukrainian forces, which may indicate problems with reconnaissance.
Do the assumptions of this analysis reflect reality? We do not know yet, but reality will probably verify them in the next few days.
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