- Hubert Walas
Unfilled plan.
It is already day 4 of the Russo-Ukrainian war. We live in a different reality today than we did just a week ago. History is still being written in front of our eyes.
Ukraine, though hard hit, continues to stand upright. And the unifying Western world looks on with disgust at the actions of Putin and his entourage and is tightening the noose around his neck ever more tightly. Meanwhile, the excellent tactical preparation of the Russian army is increasingly being questioned by military experts. The Russians are suffering heavy losses. The continuity of statehood in Ukraine is preserved. There have also been initial proposals for peace talks.
As every day - let us start by looking at the operational directions.
Three directions of the offensive have emerged - 1) Kyiv one 2) Kharkiv 3) Crimea
Let's start with the former. On the fourth day of the war, Kyiv is still defending itself, heavy fighting is taking place in the suburbs and northwest of the city - again Hostomel, as well as Bucha and Irpin - between these villages Ukrainian troops have blown up a bridge. During the night a fuel depot in Vasylkovo near Kyiv was attacked. News during the day reported that more columns of tanks were advancing towards Kyiv. According to the morning information of the UA General Staff, 16 rocket strikes and 5 airstrikes were carried out from the north. In the afternoon, rockets continued to be fired from Belarus, whose territory continues to be used for the invasion. Belarus is the operational base and backup for Russian actions in the Kyiv direction. In a word, if it were not for the use of Belarusian territory, Kyiv's defense would be much easier. It should therefore be emphasized that Aleksandr Lukashenko is as much to blame for the war as Vladimir Putin.
On Sunday, however, Kharkiv, the second-largest Ukrainian city, became the epicenter of operations. The Russians penetrated the city with light troops, but according to the Ukrainian side they were repulsed and the city remains in Ukrainian hands. A gas pipeline was probably destroyed during the fighting for Kharkiv.
In the Crimean direction, Kherson and, above all, Mariupol continue to defend themselves. It should be noted that the Ukrainians still have in their arsenal the Turkish Bayraktars, which have been wreaking havoc today over the Kherson airport, where the Russians have deployed their forces. Mariupol also faces heavy fighting. The Americans report that the Russians have made a landing 30 miles from the town. This is a key junction that the Ukrainians must hold to prevent a land bridge to Crimea. Overall, the southern direction is the Russians' strongest theatre so far.
However, the overall picture that emerges after 85 hours of conflict is very disappointing for the Russians. They have suffered really heavy losses - more than 4 000 soldiers, almost 150 tanks, and a total of more than 50 fighters and helicopters as of today. For the first time, the Russian Ministry of Defence also admitted the losses. It admitted that they have losses, dead and wounded, as a result of the operations in Ukraine. No specific figures were given.
Ukraine is also inevitably bleeding. The Russians report that they have attacked more than 1,000 Ukrainian military facilities, including 27 command posts, 38 anti-aircraft systems, and more than 250 combat vehicles.
Interestingly - questioned by many experts are the tactics of the Russian attack. For example, it is very puzzling how easily they exposed Spetsnaz units in the urban fighting in Kharkiv. These cost millions and take years to train. This is all reflected in the heavy losses and low morale of the Russians, which can be seen in dozens of captured soldiers.
It's hard not to get the impression that the Kremlin's initial plan is totally falling apart. Marco Rubio, head of the US Senate Intelligence Committee, wrote today that Russia's plan for the war was as follows:
• Air domination in the first 12 hours, meaning the destruction of all aircraft and anti-aircraft defenses
• Annihilation of Ukrainian command centers in 36 hours
• Bypassing major urban areas, cutting off the eastern army, encircling Kyiv and collapsing the government after 48 hours
• Installation of a puppet government after 72 hours
• More than 80 hours passed and none of this materialized
We are also entering a phase when the Russians will be running out of supplies on the front line, and if lines of communication with ammunition, food, or fuel are interrupted, they may experience difficult times.
Nonetheless, it must be remembered that the Russians still have a large firepower advantage in store. Its use could have been recommended to the Russian commanders, as is also shown by the words of the aforementioned Rubio.
He wrote a disturbing message this morning saying that Russian commanders should think deeply before carrying out orders they have recently received.
As an aside, both these messages and many others indicate that the Russian command is deeply penetrated by American intelligence. Before the war, it was primarily Washington that sounded the alarm and warned of an invasion all the time. That is also what happened.
The Russians continue to commit heinous acts, with shops being looted and banks being robbed. Bellingcat, meanwhile, confirmed that a Ukrainian kindergarten was attacked with cluster munitions.
The Anonymous attack on servers in Russia and Belarus continues. The kremlin.ru website and the websites of the Ministries of Defence of Russia and Belarus, among others, are still down. There have been reports of a hacking attack on the ICT systems of Belarusian railways to slow down the arrival of new Russian units and make it difficult to send transports with logistical security to combat areas. Belarusian railways were to switch to manual control and the junctions in Minsk and Orsha were to be paralyzed.
Two additional events also signaled that things were getting hot in Moscow - firstly, Vladimir Putin pulled the nuclear card out on the table and raised the nuclear deterrent force to a higher state of readiness.
Secondly, after initially conflicting information, it was established that the Kremlin had proposed peace talks to be held on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. At the time of writing, the outcome of these talks is not yet known, although the Ukrainians are not under any illusion that they will bring immediate peace, even though that is their aim.
Above all, nuclear signaling is a sign of...weakness. If, after four days, theoretically the world's second military power, fighting against a much less well-equipped and the smaller Ukrainian army, has to signal the use of nuclear weapons, this does not speak well of it - and this is how it is perceived by experts. Perhaps this is a Russian diplomatic attempt to 'escalate to de-escalate', and therefore to raise the stakes in order to have more arguments at the negotiating table later.
The nuclear signaling is probably also the result of the reaction of the West, which now is unanimously showing diplomatic, military, financial and social support for Ukraine. Voices of support are pouring in from all over the democratic world. It is hard to keep up.
Ursula von der leyen has announced the closure of the skies over Europe to all Russian and Belarusian aircraft. The EU is to finance the purchase and delivery of arms and equipment to Ukraine. Russian propaganda channels have been banned from broadcasting within the community. EU sanctions also cover the Lukashenko regime. Latest reports say that the EU will even provide Ukraine with military jets. Possibly soviet made MiG 29 from Poland or Slovakia, which Ukrainian pilots know well.
Meanwhile, Sweden is to donate 5 000 AT4 anti-tank weapons and Denmark 2 700 anti-tank grenade launchers - a very serious strengthening of the Ukrainian infantry's capabilities.
But it was Germany that was the focus of the world's attention today, not counting, of course, the heroically defending Ukraine. Berlin made an unprecedented turn of its policy - in almost every field - energy, military, geopolitical vector.
The German leadership, in the form of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has announced that there will be a special defence budget of a bagatelle 100 billion euros, and that defence spending will rise to the 2% required by NATO for at least a few years. He also reported that Germany will want to become more energy independent, so Berlin wants to build two terminal LNG plants.
Germany has finally recognised what a mistake it was to persist in seeking cooperation with Putin, whom Scholz called a warmonger. So the last bastion of friendship for Russia in Europe fell today with a bang.
All this seems to be causing the Kremlin anxiety, to put it mildly. On top of that, there are further problems. There are grassroots, popular initiatives for Finland to join NATO. The mood in usually pacifist Sweden is also similar.
In addition, Belarus is becoming more active. Svenlana Tikhanouska has declared herself the leader of the nation and Minsk is beginning to mobilise again. People are taking to the streets again.
On top of that, tomorrow is an unpleasant morning for the Russian financial markets, which will inevitably react to the devastating sanctions of the West. And already over the weekend, there was a run on ATMs in Russia. The increasingly frequent anti-war protests are also being suppressed. Today, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, among others, called for people to take to the streets.
While the head of the Russian delegation to the Climate Conference apologised on behalf of the Russians for 'not being able to stop the war'.
Watching all this is the red dragon - China. What does Beijing think now as it sees the chaos in Russian command, the nuclear threat and the total isolation of a key ally? That question remains open.
