- Hubert Walas
The fight for freedom.
Today marked the second week of the war. Russia's plan to quickly conquer Ukraine has burst like a soap bubble. Now both nations are bleeding each other out. However, only one is doing it for a glorious purpose - freedom.
The theater of operations has come to a standstill. The Russians are advancing slowly in some places, but the march of the first days has been halted. This also applies to the southern direction, although there Russia has been quite successful since the beginning. All the large cities are defended, with the exception of captured Kherson. The Kremlin continues to direct large forces to Kyiv and Mariupol, but both cities remain unconquered. The Ukrainians, on the other hand, are directing their efforts at disrupting Russian supplies of, among other things, fuel and munitions to the front line.
The result of the flimsy attempts of the Russian military is the bestiality they commit in an act of powerlessness. This bestiality is directed at defenseless civilians - attacks on humanitarian corridors, artillery, and rocket attacks on residential areas are no different from the criminal actions of the Third Reich during World War II. The latest example of this barbarism is the attack on the maternity hospital in Mariupol. Ukraine will never forget this to Russia.
Today - on March 10th took place the first meeting at the level of foreign ministers since the beginning of the war. Dmytro Kuleba and Sergey Lavrov met in Turkey. However, it did not bring any concrete results. Moreover, Lavrov stated that Russia did not invade Ukraine, and other countries can be calm because Russia is not planning to invade other neighbors.
Lavrov's narration is part of a broader picture of the Russian people that has been painted for us since the beginning of this war. It is said that the Russian public does not see or know what is happening in Ukraine. But it is well enough informed to stock up on Big Macs before MacDonald's leaves the Russian market, or to buy up the last available furniture in IKEA stores before it closes them for good. Russians know full well what's going on. And unfortunately, this is the result of decades of unprocessed history and hypocrisy fed to Russian society. Germany after World War II went through a process of facing the criminal history of its fathers and grandfathers. Russia, on the other hand, inherited the "glorious" history of the Soviet Union, which is based on lies, suffering and the death of millions of people. This "corruption of thought" has consumed society for years, so that it now remains indifferent by the sight of murdered Ukrainian children and destroyed cities, because, after all, "it's all the West's fault." Of course, there are isolated lighthouses in the darkness of Russian self-awareness, and we see this small faction in the protests on the streets of Moscow or St. Petersburg.
So is a coup impossible? Not really, but if it does erupt it will be more a result of the increasingly difficult domestic situation caused by sanctions than for reasons of mercy. Since our last piece, a ban on Russian oil and gas imports to the United States has been added to the pool of sanctions. Britain is to do likewise by the end of this year.
Maria Shagina of the independent Russian portal Riddle notes that the strength of sanctions is currently estimated at 7-8 on a 10-point scale. Of course, some loopholes remain, and some transactions can be conducted bypassing SWIFT. But going back to the fax machine is slower, less secure, and more cumbersome. Instead, in Shagina's view, the nuclear option is sanctions against the "Bank of Russia." Before the war, also on this channel, we said that Russia's foreign exchange reserves are the highest in history, reaching $630 billion. However, after the US and allies decided to freeze them, effectively only 200 billion of the 600 billion reserves were left to Moscow. Russia is on a straight path to bankruptcy. The ideas of stiff prices for basic goods and food ration cards are coming back. Putin dreamed of returning to the glory days of the USSR, now the dream is becoming a reality.
However, the Kremlin leadership goes all in. It hopes that the Ukrainians will sooner or later surrender due to the murder of civilians. Then the Kremlin will declare a great victory, and the West will quickly lift the toughest sanctions. Although one can sense a subtle shift from the initial expectations for Kyiv, it seems that the Ukrainians have no intention of giving in. The army continues to stand firm, with an influx of fresh blood - unofficial estimates say that the Foreign Legion in Ukraine numbers up to 40 000 men. National troops are being formed - those of Canadians and Belarusians, for example. By the way, in case of a successful outcome in Ukraine, these Belarusian troops may later constitute a charge for a military revolt against the regime in Minsk. Especially at the moment of visible division in the Belarussian armed forces and lack of Kremlin's military umbrella.
So whose advantage does time play? Militarily - in favor of Ukraine. Maintaining the Russian military's advanced position is extremely costly in the long run, especially when logistical lines are cut. Spring melt will further impede the march of the Russian military. Soldiers on the frontline are also becoming fatigued, particularly in the absence of regular food supplies. Increasingly, we see Russian soldiers looting stores or even stealing chickens. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are moving more reservists east and south. All the time, some part of Ukraine’s Armed Forces remains unused - for example, in Odesa, that is waiting for a landing, which still has not happened. Going further - Russia is the largest supplier of military equipment to the Armed Forces of Ukraine - something that sounds like a joke, in practice is true. Abandonment of equipment, primarily armored personnel vehicles and tanks, is very common. And unlike Western equipment, Ukrainians don't require special training to use them because these are machines they know well. Aid, now intentional, continues to flow from the West - but after Kyiv's reaction, that Western governments be less transparent about it, we hear it less often in the media. But the words of Jens Stoltenberg, the head of NATO, that an attack on these supplies would be tantamount to an attack on the Alliance mean that they are still ongoing. Meanwhile, the Russians have thrown all their prepared troops into battle. Of course, there is still 40% of the Russian military that is deployed in other parts of the country. But their use in Ukraine would expose other directions, further encouraging uprisings and liberation movements in other regions.
This is why we hear statements from leading Western politicians - Biden, Blinken, or French Foreign Minister Le Drian - saying that Ukraine can win.
The passage of time due to sanctions also works against the Russian economy and internal stability, but here immediate effects are not expected. All the time we are dealing with the phenomenon of "uniting under a common flag" by Russians.
On the other hand, every day more innocent civilians are killed. This is a huge burden for the decision-makers in Kyiv, a burden under which, according to Moscow, they will soon bow. This is why the Russians do not want to release people from the besieged Mariupol or Irpin. These people are acting as hostages, executed one by one. Like almost two decades ago with the terrorist attack on the school in Beslan. But now those terrorists are Russia, only on a thousand times larger scale. This is unfortunately a very strong argument. Therefore, Ukraine wanting to avoid further bloodshed may at some point agree to a form of neutrality that Russia expects. Especially when Kyiv observes that the unity of the West is breaking down again and for the first time since the beginning of the war.
This split manifests itself primarily in two aspects. The first is the case of the now 'legendary' Polish MiG 29s. The case highlighted various interests of the alliance members and, from Warsaw's perspective, shook its full credibility. Let's start with the fact that the topic was immediately brought to the surface. It is not clear whether this was due to foreign agents in the Polish authorities or to incompetence. On the international forum Josep Borell revealed the matter, stating that the Union may hand over the fighters to Ukraine. Then, there was a moment of unclear announcements and denial from the Polish authorities. Finally, Washington picked up the story and gave the green light for the planes to be handed over. In the meantime, the Kremlin took advantage of the information chaos and informed that giving the planes and airfields to Ukraine would be treated as active participation in the conflict.
The whole burden of the decision fell on Poland. A decision which, after the Kremlin's announcement, could expose the country and its 40 million citizens to war with nuclear power. In the meantime, we tweeted that Poland should sell/give those MiGs to the United States, and then Washington should hand them over to Kyiv under the American flag. A few days later, this is more or less what the Polish Foreign Ministry did. It issued a statement in which it informed that it was handing over the Polish MiGs to the American base in Ramstein, Germany and leaving them at the disposal of the Americans. At the same time, it called for a similar move on the part of other countries which have post-Soviet fighter planes. The Poles played open cards, without consulting the Americans - saying we want to give them to Ukraine, but not at the expense of war with Russia. As a result, the American position changed by 180 degrees. Suddenly the handing over of MiGs was regarded as an escalating move and a threat of war for the alliance with Russia, despite the fact that earlier a green light had been given to Poland if it wanted to hand over the planes. Berlin also said that handing over the planes from German territory was out of the question.
This shows the gap in interests between Poland and the United States. Although both Washington and Warsaw are on the side of Ukraine, the level of desire to end the war quickly in both capitals is different. Of course, the Americans militarily support the Ukrainians strongly, but it is not a decisive weapon - it is mainly Javelin anti-tank launchers. Ideal weapons to slowly finish off the enemy. And in the realpolitik view, Russia's slow bleeding in Ukraine is in the US interest. This is not motivated solely by the cynicism of realism, but also by the strategic prioritization of the Indo-Pacific region, a challenge far greater in Washington's eyes than the war on the periphery of the global system. The Americans are fighting Russia economically and with Ukrainian soldiers, but they have no intention of depleting their forces in the South China Sea. This is why the idea of handing over used F-16s to Poland in exchange for MiGs was shot down. These are reserved for Taiwan. Meanwhile, Poland, for obvious reasons, cares about the fastest possible victory of Ukraine, and Warsaw is able to do a lot for this matter. But, risking the lives of its 40mln population by possibly getting involved in a war with Russia is unacceptable.
The second manifestation of the fracturing of Western unity is the issue of Ukraine's accession to the European Union. Germany and the Netherlands unofficially say they are against Kyiv's admission to the Union. The accession to NATO is also highly questionable. In a word, after the initial shock, comes brutal reality and we’re "back to business". With such an attitude of the West, will Ukraine want to avoid at all costs enforced neutrality and potentially some influence of Moscow on its own internal politics? Is it certain that after Moscow achieves its goal, slaughters hundreds of civilians, and withdraws Russian troops, Western sanctions will be maintained? I leave the answer to both questions to you.
This calculating policy of the U.S. and Western Europe may provide a temporary solution. However, in this way, the problem will only be swept under the carpet and sooner or later it will erupt again. At this moment Russia is the weakest in decades, and there may not be a better chance for thorough changes in the Kremlin for a long time.
