- Hubert Walas
Clash of interests.
Recently, the world media has reported a renewed escalation of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, represented by Hamas. The diplomats from every country calls for the cessation of fighting, however, every major player in the Middle East looks at this conflict, and more broadly, at the region through the prism of their own national interests. There have already been many analyzes of the causes of this conflict - for this purpose, I encourage you to check out the analysis of CaspianReport.
United States of America
The United States of America has been Israel's closest ally for years. An unconditional ally. Since 1946, the United States has supported Israel for a total of $ 146 billion, inflation considered, making it over $ 240 billion. Since 2001, Israel has received over 50% from the US Foreign Military Financing fund. This is despite the fact that Israel is a relatively prosperous country. Israel's GDP per capita is greater than that of the British, French or Japanese.
In the past, Israeli cause has been a topic beyond divisions in Washington. Both Democrats and Republicans have agreed on supporting Israel regardless of its actions. However, in recent years, this attitude have changed. Republicans continue to opt for strong support for Israel, as demonstrated by Donald Trump's policy and his close relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It led to Washington recognition of Jerusalem as Israeli capital. Some Democrats, however, started questioning the morality of unconditional support.
Through the prism of morality and values, one should not look at geopolitics, where the pragmatic interest of states is of paramount importance. However, these are factors that must be taken into account in order to gain domestic support. And more and more Americans are skeptical about Israel's policy towards Muslims. This could translate into the Biden administration's foreign policy towards Israel and a reduction in unconditional support.
Although Biden has expressed direct support for Israel for years, he is now on his lips(nabral wody w usta). The US administration, being a close ally of Israel, is now de facto burdened with offensive actions by Tel Aviv. Therefore, Biden does not directly criticize the Israeli offensive, but calls for a ceasefire by both sides. Unofficially, however, Biden urged Netanyahu to stop the bombings.
Members of the US Congress are beginning to debate the rightness and morality of supplying Israel with weapons that are then used against Palestinians on the West Bank or in the Gaza Strip. There are voices among American analysts that if Americans finally opted for a more calculated policy towards Israel, Tel Aviv might eventually become involved in diplomacy with its neighbors to an extent that it is not doing so now.
This is supported by the United States’ policy of limiting its involvement in the Middle East. Mainly to be able to engage more resources to compete with China in the Western Pacific. This is evidenced by the withdrawal of the US troops from capital-intensive Afghanistan. Nevertheless, Washington, in order to maintain its waning dominance, must continually show its presence in the region, so abandoning Israel altogether is not an option.
Russian Federation
The Middle East has always been the soft underbelly of Russia. Thus, the military intervention of the Russian Federation in Syria, which began in 2015, was an opportunist return of Russians to a key region for them. The Kremlin's strategy in the region is based on a flexible game of influence. Moscow is able to maintain good relations with the main actors in the region - Iran, Israel, Turkey and the Gulf states, despite the fact that these states have different relations with each other.
Russia uses all the tools at its disposal to expand its influence in the Middle East - military power, paramilitary organizations, intelligence, trade and soft power. The specificity of the tools Moscow uses mean that Russia gains the greatest influence over the region at a time when it is unstable. Therefore, Syria is the epicenter of Russia's influence. The strategic location of Syria in the Eastern Mediterranean allows the Russians to project power not only deep into the Asian continent, but also in relation to NATO's south-eastern flank. The Russians believe that the American presence in the region will decline, which will create a security vacuum that Moscow is eager to fill by increasing its presence. However, the Russians do not have the tools for economic expansion in the region. Only singular, bilateral economic agreements are possible. Most often with countries sanctioned by the international community, as is the case with Iran.
But back to Israel. Even though Israel is a close ally of the United States, Tel Aviv does not see Russia as an enemy. Both countries share a cultural and historical bond. 30 years ago, over a million Russian Jews came to Israel, increasing the country's population by 20%. In addition, Israel loudly recalls the role of the Soviet Union in defeating Nazi Germany in World War II, which Moscow greatly appreciates. The direct relationship between Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin remains very good.
Moscow, despite supporting the Assad regime in Syria and fighting alongside Iran and Hezbollah, tries to be as flexible as possible. Officially, it does not support Iranian aggression against Israel, and on the other hand it turns a blind eye to Israel's attacks on Iranian targets in Syria. At the same time, there are issues on the horizon for Israel and Russia, which make it difficult to find a common ground. It is about the differences with regard to the future of Syria, the Iranian nuclear program, and above all the Palestinian issue - where the Russians support the creation of an independent Palestinian state.
However, it should be remembered that the Russians do not see the conflict through the prism of its resolution, but how it will affect Moscow's relations with the parties to the conflict. And then what strategy to adopt to best position itself in the region. In practice, Russia wants to be a mediator, often inviting both sides to talks, wishing to participate in them, which raises Moscow's international position. It is no different now. The Russian Federation is on the Palestinian side in this conflict and calling for a ceasefire. At the same time, Russians wants to take part in talks on resolving the conflict. Regardless of the format, as they propose both direct Palestinian-Israeli talks with Russia's role as mediator, but also the convening of a quartet of global mediators - the United States, the European Union, the United Nations and Russia.
Islamic Republic of Iran
The issue with Iran is theoretically simple. Iran and Israel are the fiercest rivals in the Middle East. Both sides clash on many proxy fronts across the region. Unsurprisingly then Tehran, strongly supports the Palestinians in this conflict, supporting Hamas militarily. Top Iranian commander. General Esmail Qaani said that "this is not just a fight against Hamas, but the whole Islamic world”. Iran is calling for a referendum on Palestine to determine the fate of Palestine.
However, when viewed from a broader perspective, particularly with regard to Iran's nuclear program, there is a significant conflict of interest for all players. Israel has warned for years that nuclear weapons in the hands of the fanatical Tehran regime represent the greatest threat in the region. Iran, in turn, declares that it is developing the program for defense purposes.
The sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on Iran have deeply affected the Iranian economy but have not prevented the continuation of the nuclear program. In addition, they mobilized Tehran to seek its own leverages of power and continue to develop its network of proxy militias, many of which were aimed directly or indirectly at Israel's interests. As part of the deal with Iran, the US wants to lift more than 1,500 sanctions. Tel-Aviv, of course, expresses deep opposition to such a scenario.
However, in addition to Israel, maintaining the status quo is also in Russia's interest. This is for a number of reasons. First, it keeps Iranian oil out of the world circulation, leaving more of the market for Russian oil. In addition, it forces Iran to look for partners, the role of which Moscow is willing to take. Also, as mentioned before, it’s mobilizingy Tehran to seek leverages in the region through its proxy groups, with which the Kremlin also often cooperates. Thus the US-Iran deal is not in the interest of either Israel or Russia. Nor is Saudi Arabia’s, which is as antagonistic about Iran as Israel.
By attacking Iran's nuclear facilities in early April 2021, Tel Aviv is trying to sabotage talks about the lifting of sanctions on Iran. So far, the Viennese talks, mediated by the European Union, are still ongoing. If they lead to the total lifting of sanctions, it will certainly lead to a change in the balance of power in the region.
People's Republic of China
China's involvement in the Middle East has steadily grown over the past two decades. And the recently announced $ 400 billion deal with Iran was expected for a long time. The Chinese see the region primarily as a supplier of natural resources, an area of expansion under the Belt and Road initiative and a potential market for its products.
The Chinese view of Israel is slightly different. Sino-Israeli relations are deepening on many fronts. This is especially true in "soft" areas such as economic cooperation, education and tourism. Israel's high-tech sector attracts Chinese investment, while its location along the Belt and Road corridor further strengthens Israel's appeal to the Chinese. However, in foreign policy and the military sector, both countries remain very assertive due to the conflict of interests in relation to the United States.
Beijing is also looking closely at tense Israeli-Iranian relations. Especially in the context of the aforementioned agreement with Iran. As for now, however, we cannot talk about the 'Beijing-Tehran' axis. In 2019, China imported over 650 million tons of oil from the region. Only 18 million or 3% of oil was sent to China by Iran, despite the fact that Tehran had many other outlets blocked. Saudi Arabia, a close ally of the United States, continues to be China's largest economic partner in the region. That is why the Chinese play a multilateral game in the region and are trying to build links with Tehran's many rivals, including Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Paradoxically, the interests of the Chinese and Americans in the Middle East are largely convergent. Both are committed to stabilizing the region and preventing conflicts. China would then be able to expand economically deeper into the region. Americans, in turn, can then devote resources to directions of action that are more important from Washington's perspective. Nevertheless, both Iran and China agree on one thing - limiting the power and influence of the United States in the region, which is not in the interest of Israel.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is in practice another point of convergence of the interests of Washington and Beijing, where both sides want to resolve it. China now chairs the UN Security Council, where it calls on both sides to peace. At the same time, they accuse the Americans of a lack of objectivity in assessing the situation, and favoring Israel.
Republic of Turkey
The Turks are also calling for the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, taking the side of Palestine in the dispute.
Ankara was the first country with a Muslim majority to recognize Israel's independence in 1948. Recently, however, Turkish-Israeli relations have been very bumpy. By pursuing an offensive regional policy, Turkey is falling into isolation in the Middle East, which has also led to a deterioration in relations with Israel and the United States. Despite this, Ankara and Tel Aviv have been able to separate political from economic issues, resulting in a steady increase in trade between Turkey and Israel.
Nevertheless, at present, both countries continue to maintain cold diplomatic relations, without a diplomatic mission at the level of ambassadors in both countries. Recep Erdogan recalled his ambassador to Israel in 2018 after Trump recognized Jerusalem as the nation's capital. However, the Turks have recently sent out signals that they would like to normalize relations again, seeing Israel as a partner to help normalize relations with Washington.
But as Recep Erdogan has unequivocally sided with the Palestinians in this conflict, Turkish-Israeli relations are likely to deteriorate again. The Turkish president said that "resisting Israeli aggression against Palestinian cities and Jerusalem is a debt of honor to all humanity." For several years now, Turkey’s aim is to play the role of the leader of the Muslim world. So any other position towards the Palestinians would be contrary to this policy. In Israel, there are voices that Turkey wants to take over the guardianship of the Temple Hill in Jerusalem - Haram al-Sharif, which is currently under Jordan's supervision. Now the distrust will increase even more, and normalization of relations will remain a distant prospect.
During any major conflict, world opinion and leading diplomats are calling for peace and a ceasefire. However, the leading motivator for the actions of individual players is always the interest of the state. It is not a good or bad thing. That’s just how it is. It is no different now, where behind the façade of diplomacy there is a tough competition for influence and own position.
