- Tomasz Rydelek
Graveyard of emires.
On February 29, 2020, in the Qatari capital of Doha, an American delegation led by Zalmay Khalilzad signed a peace agreement with the Taliban. Thus, after nearly 19 years, the deaths of more than 4,000 Americans, and the expenditure of more than $2 trillion, the U.S. intervention in Afghanistan has begun to come to an end. Commenting on the signing of the deal with the Taliban, President Trump said bluntly, "We've had great success in Afghanistan, but after all these years, it's time to bring our troops home." Trump's decision was met with a positive reaction by most Americans, tired of the "perpetual war" waged in faraway Afghanistan. Some American analysts had a different reaction, pointing out that the withdrawal of troops from the country could mean the rapid collapse of the government in Kabul. Few expected, however, that the flag of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan would fly over the capital just over a year later, on August 14, 2021, before America withdrew its last troops from the country.
Graveyard of Empires
Afghanistan is sometimes described as the graveyard of empires or a country that simply cannot be conquered. This is not entirely true. If we look at the recent history of Afghanistan, it is clear that the British, Soviets and Americans had no problems conquering the country. The problem, however, turned out to be maintaining power in the occupied areas.
The British army, which in 1839 in just a few months had seized Kabul, was driven out of the capital 3 years later and completely smashed by Afghan rebels. The Soviets, who invaded Afghanistan in 1979, were able to hold only the major urban centers under their rule, and constantly had to contend with the US-backed mujahideen. The hardships of waging war in Afghanistan were also witnessed by the Americans. When Al Qaeda attacked the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001, America's response was decisive - an invasion of Afghanistan, where Osama bin Laden was in the custody of the Taliban. In just over a month, the Americans, in alliance with the Northern Alliance mujahideen, took control of all of Afghanistan. However, stabilizing the country proved to be a problem. Already in 2003 the Taliban went on the offensive, starting a guerrilla war against the coalition forces. The Americans tried to control the situation by sending more and more troops to Afghanistan - in 2010 their number exceeded 100,000 - but they still could not smash the Taliban troops - quietly supported by some circles of power in Pakistan (especially the intelligence community).
After 2011, the military presence in Afghanistan began to become less and less popular with policymakers in Washington. Osama bin Laden was dead, there was a pro-American government in Kabul, and yet the war in Afghanistan was consuming more and more money - about $100 billion a year from 2009 to 2013. The Americans decided it was time to leave Afghanistan. The first peace talks with the Taliban began back during the Barack Obama administration. However, it was only under President Donald Trump that the Americans succeeded in reaching a peace agreement with the Taliban.
Peace with an Old Foe
Under the agreement, reached with the Taliban in Qatar in February 2020, the Americans pledged to withdraw all their troops from Afghanistan by May 1, 2021, and to remove sanctions previously imposed on the Taliban. In return, the Taliban pledged not to attack the U.S. or U.S. allies, and to stop members of Al Qaeda operating inside Afghanistan from planning further attacks targeting the U.S. Even though the government in Kabul was not a party to the Qatar talks, the final agreement between the U.S. and the Taliban still placed several important obligations on the government in Kabul. First and foremost, by March 10, 2020, the government was to release 5,000 Taliban held in Afghan prisons - in exchange, the Taliban would release 1,000 of their detainees. Following this prisoner exchange, Kabul was to begin peace negotiations with the Taliban that would lead to a final end to the conflict in the country.
The deal between Washington and the Taliban was coolly received in Kabul, but Afghan politicians shied away from openly criticizing the US. The release of the 5,000 Taliban held in Afghan prisons - many of whom were experienced fighters, often holding senior positions in the Taliban movement - proved particularly problematic. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani said he would release the prisoners, but only if the Taliban agreed to a ceasefire beforehand. Ghani wanted to use the prisoners as a bargaining chip and release them gradually as peace talks progressed. Ghani's strategy was understandable. Although the Taliban no longer attacked coalition forces, they continued to launch attacks targeting government forces. Between March and April 2020 alone, there were 4,500 attacks on loyalist forces. In addition to the Taliban, Kabul had another problem. The echoes of last year's dispute with Afghanistan's presidential election had still not subsided. Officially, Ghani won the election. However, his challenger, Abdullah Abdullah claimed that there was electoral fraud and refused to recognize the election results. The deal between the US and the Taliban began to hang in the balance. Let's look at the sequence of events over the last 1.5 years that led to the fall of Afghanistan.
March 10, 2020
According to the Qatar agreement, the prisoner exchange was supposed to end that day and peace talks between the government and the Taliban were supposed to begin. Due to Ghani's resistance, none of these things happened. The Americans, however, stand firm on the deal. On March 10 they announce the beginning of the reduction of their contingent in Afghanistan.
March 23, 2020
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo lands in Kabul. He holds a series of meetings with top Afghan politicians. He tries to end the dispute between Abdullah and Ghani and convince Kabul to release Taliban prisoners. However, the talks end in failure. Pompeo departs Kabul in the evening empty-handed. Leaving the capital, he threatens the Afghans that if they continue to sabotage the Qatar agreement, the U.S. will cut support to Afghanistan by $1 billion a year, or about 20%.
April 2, 2020
Pompeo's threats are helping. The government is starting to release Taliban from their prisons. However, the whole process is going very slowly. The last batch of Taliban will not leave Afghan prisons until August.
May 17, 2020
The situation begins to clear up. President Ghani makes a deal with his rival Abdullah. The election rigging dispute stops, and Abdullah is appointed head of a group of negotiators who will be responsible for working out a peace deal with the Taliban.
June 18, 2020
The Americans now have only about 8,600 troops in Afghanistan - they had 13,000 troops in the country when the peace agreement with the Taliban was signed.
September 12, 2020
The exchange of prisoners of war had been completed several weeks earlier. In Qatar, a government delegation, led by Abdullah, sits down for talks with the Taliban. In the months that follow, the two sides will spend hundreds of hours negotiating. Ultimately, however, they will not reach any agreement.
November 3, 2020
The US presidential election is underway and Joe Biden wins. It is not clear whether he will recognize the peace agreement made with the Taliban by his predecessor. Admittedly, Biden initially praised the deal, but during the election campaign, he already claimed that perhaps America should maintain a small garrison in Afghanistan that would focus on monitoring Islamic State and Al Qaeda activity. Meanwhile, the retreat from Afghanistan continues. By the end of November, the Americans will have only about 4,500 troops in Afghanistan.
December 2020/January 2021
The first clear indications are emerging that the situation in Afghanistan is heading in a worse and worse direction. AFP journalists speak to Hayatullah Hayat, governor of Kandahar province, where the Taliban movement emerged in 1994. The governor speaks of a dire situation. In Kandahar province alone, government forces have surrendered 193 posts to the Taliban, mostly without a fight. The scale of desertion is enormous. Americans, however, are not concerned about the government's problems in Kabul. On January 6, supporters of President Trump stormed the Capitol. America will be alive with this issue for the next few weeks.
January 20, 2021.
Joe Biden is sworn in as the 46th president of the United States. At this time, there are only about 2,500 troops in Afghanistan, the fewest since the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan. It is still unclear whether Biden will choose to recognize the peace agreement reached with the Taliban by his predecessor, President Trump. Close Biden associates say the president will announce his decision on the matter in the coming weeks.
March 25, 2021.
Gen. Richard Clarke, head of Special Operations Command, testifies before a U.S. Senate committee of the Congress. He tells senators that the Taliban are not complying with the peace agreement. He points out that while coalition forces are no longer under attack, the Taliban are stepping up their operations against forces loyal to the government in Kabul.
April 9, 2021.
The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence releases its annual report on international threats. In the section on Afghanistan, the report states that the chances of peace between the government in Kabul and the Taliban in 2021 are low. The Taliban are confident that they have the upper hand and can defeat government forces. The report also notes that government forces may have great difficulty stopping Taliban advances once coalition troops leave Afghanistan.
April 13, 2021.
President Joe Biden delivers an address to the nation. He decides to follow the path set by Donald Trump and honor the peace agreement with the Taliban. However, the deadline for American withdrawal from Afghanistan is pushed back from May 1 to September 11, 2021. After that, the deadline will be pushed back once more, to August 31, out of concern for possible propaganda exploitation by the Dzhadist movements.
May 2021.
The Taliban intensifies its operations against government forces. In its Q1 2021 report, the US Department of Defense notes a huge increase in Taliban activity. The Americans believe that the Taliban - in defiance of the peace agreement - continue to maintain close ties with Al Qaeda and are preparing large-scale offensives targeting Afghan cities and Afghan army bases.
End of June 2021.
Since early May, the Taliban have been on the offensive, taking over more and more areas. According to estimates by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, during May and June 2021 the Taliban occupied as many as 80 districts (equivalent to Polish counties). A large part of the government forces surrender without a fight, leaving their bases and giving to the Taliban, military equipment supplied by the United States. Recordings of the Taliban parading with American rifles or driving Humvees are becoming increasingly popular.
American analysts studying the reasons for the rapid collapse of districts indicate that it is a consequence of corruption in the Afghan armed forces, arrears in the payment of salaries, and poor coordination between pro-government forces, which makes local garrisons feel abandoned, and morale in such troops drops to zero. The rapid withdrawal of American troops, who until now have provided the Afghans with invaluable support not only in combat but also in intelligence, is also having a major impact. A particularly large drop in effectiveness can be seen on the side of the Afghan air force. Together with American soldiers, Western contractors who have so far been repairing Afghan aircraft are withdrawing from Afghanistan. Without their help, the Afghan mechanics have enormous problems with repairing modern equipment such as Black Hawk helicopters.
After the fall of Kabul, General Sami Sadat, the protagonist of the Lashkargah battle, in an article for The New York Times, pointed out that it was a strategic error on the part of the Americans to build the Afghan army on Western models, based on the latest equipment and technology, which proved to be worthless without the support of American specialists. This does not mean, of course, that the Afghan army gives up the fight every time. Many units put up fierce resistance to the Taliban, but such cases are rare.
The capitals of Afghan provinces are slowly turning into "small islands", surrounded by a sea of Taliban. Most of the lines of communication connecting Kabul to other Afghan cities are broken. From now on, most garrisons are supplied by air, which poses a huge logistical challenge for the Afghan air force. The situation is particularly bad in the north of the country, the former nucleus of the Northern Alliance, i.e. the organization that successfully defended the northeast against the Taliban until 2001, i.e. until the American invasion. The Taliban are concentrating most of their forces precisely in the north, trying to block the possibility of forming a new Northern Alliance. The strongholds of the north, such as the cities of Mazar-i-Sharif and Kunduz, are effectively encircled and the power of the northern warlords shrinks with each passing day.
The problems of the Afghans are also recognized by Washington. Wall Street Journal reporters arrive at a classified U.S. intelligence report that suggests Kabul could collapse within just six months of the American withdrawal. Meanwhile, Kabul is beginning to reorganize its forces. President Ghani, who has fought the power of warlords in the country's provinces for years, is now giving those same warlords the green light to rebuild their militias. Kabul is counting on such a popular movement to be able to halt the Taliban's advance. In several places the Afghan army, backed by pro-government militias, is actually breaking the stalemate and going on the counter-offensive. The successes prove to be short-lived, however. Soon the Taliban gain the upper hand again.
July 5
Americans withdraw from Bagram Air Base, the largest US military outpost in the country. The Americans leave Bagram without informing Kabul. As a result, the base falls prey to local looters who begin to steal equipment left behind by the Americans. The Afghan army does not appear at the base until several hours later. In a statement issued later, the Americans announce that they did not warn the government in Kabul about the evacuation of Bagram due to security concerns for American forces.
July 8
The White House holds a press conference on the situation in Afghanistan. President Joe Biden succinctly outlines the situation. When asked by a reporter if a Taliban takeover in Afghanistan is inevitable, he replies that it is not. The president says he has confidence in the ability of the approximately 300,000-strong Afghan army to defend the country. Biden also says that Afghanistan will not repeat the South Vietnam scenario.
July 14
Americans launch Operation Allies Refuge to evacuate former associates of the American embassy and coalition forces, particularly translators, from Afghanistan. The Americans estimate that as many as ca. 50,000 Afghans. The operation is moving slowly, however. It won't be until July 30 that the first shipment with 221 Afghan interpreters will arrive in the U.S.
The situation for government forces is getting worse. The fighting is already taking place in the suburbs of Herat, Lashkargah, and Kandahar, the second-largest city in Afghanistan. Elite units of Afghan commandos are sent to these cities by air. However, they are unable to change the situation. At the same time, the ranks of the government troops defending the north are shrinking with each passing day. Desertions are the order of the day there. During the two weeks in July alone, 1,500 Afghan soldiers fled to Tajikistan. Border crossings with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Iran are also falling into Taliban hands. Border guards flee to the other side of the border, and the Taliban begin collecting their own customs duties.
July 21, 2021.
General Mark Milley, chairman of the College of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, tells reporters that the Taliban already control nearly half of Afghanistan's districts. The situation is bad. Americans fear the Taliban may soon begin storming Afghan cities.
August 2, 2021.
Fierce fighting continues for the southern cities of Herat, Lashkargah, and Kandahar. Despite air support and additional reinforcements, government forces continue to lose neighborhoods. In Lashkargah, where 215th Afghan Army Corps is defending itself, the Taliban seize the local radio building. They soon begin broadcasting their own programs.
August 6, 2021.
The Taliban occupy the city of Zaranj, the capital of Nimruz province. It is the first provincial capital to fall into Taliban hands during this offensive.
August 7, 2021.
Another major city, Sheberghan, the capital of Jozzhan province, falls into Taliban hands. The government's situation becomes increasingly dire, but life in Kabul continues at a normal pace. When Sheberghan falls, President Ghani is in a meeting with the attorney general of Afghanistan. The news of the city's collapse does not make much of an impression on him. He spends the rest of the day reading books in the garden of the presidential palace, as is his custom. On the other side of the globe there is no panic either. President Biden is on vacation, playing golf and congratulating American athletes on their success at the Tokyo Olympics.
August 8, 2021.
The Taliban enter three more provincial capitals: Sar-e Pol, Kunduz, and Talokan. The American embassy in Kabul urges all U.S. citizens to leave Afghanistan immediately.
August 9, 2021.
Another city falls in the north. This time Ajbak falls into the hands of the Taliban.
August 10, 2021.
Finance Minister Khalid Payenda unexpectedly resigns and leaves the country. President Ghani, fearing that other officials will soon follow Payenda, forbids senior officials to leave Afghanistan. That same day, Haneef Atmar, who heads the Afghan Foreign Ministry, gives an interview to American journalists. He assures them that the situation is under control and that government forces will soon go on the counteroffensive. Meanwhile, the streets of Kabul fill with thousands of refugees seeking refuge from the Taliban.
August 11, 2021.
The situation in the north is dire. After the fall of Kunduz a few days earlier, Mazar-i-Sharif remains the only major city under the control of government forces. The defense of the city is led by Atta Muhammad Nur. In early August, Mazar-i-Sharif is encircled by the Taliban. The only way to communicate with the capital is through the local airport, which allows reinforcements and supplies to reach the city.
Meanwhile, conflicting information is coming from the US. At a press briefing, White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki says Afghan troops are capable of retaking recently lost territory. On the same day, however, the State Department calls on embassy staff in Kabul to destroy all confidential documents.
August 12, 2021.
In the morning, the Taliban enter the city of Ghazni, which is the southern gateway to the Afghan capital. From here the Taliban are only about 150 km away from Kabul. The pattern of fighting over the past few days is repeated here as well. The governor of Ghazni province, Daud Laghmani, surrenders the city without fighting. In return, he is escorted by the Taliban to the nearest outpost of government forces. President Ghani has him arrested.
The fall of Ghazni proves to be a turning point in the Taliban offensive. The pro-government troops, whose morale was already very low, lose any enthusiasm to fight. Now the loyalists' defensive lines are crumbling like a house of cards. By the evening of August 12, the Taliban still captured Kandahar, Lashkargah, and Herat. In the latter city, the famous Afghan mujahideen Ismail Khan, whose militias had supported the defense of the city in large numbers, was taken prisoner by the Taliban. At this point, it becomes clear that the fall of Kabul is only a matter of time.
13 August, 2021.
More refugees and marauders from dismantled pro-government units are arriving in Kabul. The Americans are sending 3,000 troops to Afghanistan. They are to help evacuate American citizens from the country.
14 August, 2021.
The ring around the capital grows tighter and tighter. The Taliban are already on the western and southern approaches to Kabul. The Taliban's advanced troops are only about 10 kilometers from the capital. To the east, the Taliban are pushing toward Jalalabad. If that city falls, Kabul will be encircled on all sides.
President Ghani, however, does not seem to have lost faith in victory. Together with Defense Minister Bismillah Khan Mohammadi, he is inspecting the pro-government troops defending the suburbs of Kabul. At the same time, General Sami Sadat, commander of the 215th Corps, who previously fought hard against the Taliban in Lashkargah, is appointed commander in chief of the capital's defenses. Ghani also talks with Antony Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state. Rumors are circulating around Kabul that Americans no longer believe Ghani can stop the Taliban's advance. Washington is said to be pressuring Ghani to step down as president and agree to form a national unity government that would include the Taliban. On the evening of August 14, Mazar-i Sharif falls.
August 15, 2021.
In the morning, the Taliban enter Jalalabad. This leaves Kabul completely surrounded. The only chance to escape is the Hamid Karzai airport located in the city. However, this opportunity will soon come to an end. A few hours after the fall of Jalalabad, American soldiers take full control of the airport, stopping all civilian flights. From now on only military planes with American diplomats and Afghan associates of the US take off from the airport. At noon the Taliban announce the suspension of their offensive towards Kabul. They announce that they have reached an agreement with the government in Kabul and a national unity government will soon be formed that will also include the Taliban. A few hours later, however, President Ghani leaves Kabul. Initial reports suggest that he flew off to Tajikistan, but a few days later he finds himself in the United Arab Emirates. With Ghani's escape from Kabul, organized resistance by pro-government forces in Kabul ends. Talks about the formation of a national unity government also collapse. Troops of the army and police are disbanding and dispersing to their homes. No one wants to fight the Taliban anymore.
In the evening the first Taliban troops enter the capital. Thus the history of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan comes to an end. 20 years after the overthrow of the Taliban, the white flag of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is again flying over the capital. And Afghanistan has turned out to be the graveyard of yet another of the great empires...
ozchodzą do domów. Nikt nie chce już walczyć z talibami.
Wieczorem pierwsze oddziały talibów wkraczają do stolicy. W ten sposób historia Islamskiej Republiki Afganistanu dobiega końca. 20 lat po obaleniu rządów talibów, biała flaga Islamskiego Emiratu Afganistanu znowu łopocze nad stolicą. A Afganistan okazał się cmentarzem kolejnego z wielkich imperiów...
Materials:
https://www.c-span.org/video/?166534-1/us-military-strikes-afghanistan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNYmK19-d0U&ab_channel=TheObamaWhiteHouse
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ww4SsD1bMdc&ab_channel=SenatorTomCotton
https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2021-Unclassified-Report.pdf
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/04/14/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-way-forward-in-afghanistan/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oC-llfOqjAU&ab_channel=TheWhiteHouse
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2021/06/taliban-doubles-number-of-controlled-afghan-districts-since-may-1.php
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/25/opinion/afghanistan-taliban-army.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GIvThG4Pu4&ab_channel=TheWhiteHouse
https://twitter.com/215Corps
https://twitter.com/SayedSamiSadat
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/08/18/mujahideen-resistance-taliban-ahmad-massoud/
