- Hubert Walas
Disputed election?
The American election is just days away. Tensions are high and the temperature is rising in the run up to the vote. Both sides have framed the other side’s win as an existential threat to the nation and both sides appear poised to contest the results should the result be unclear. What issues could swing the election in the run up to the vote? With a plurality of votes being cast by mail, could this be a disputed election? And what will the geopolitical impact be of such a disputed election?
Run up to the Election
On the surface, going into the election, the fundamentals don't look that good for President Trump. The economy has slowed down, the pandemic rages, and there is social unrest on the streets. Yet as we know from 2016, predictions that Hillary Clinton had a 95% chance of winning were shattered on election night when Trump scored a surprising victory. Although now the chances are smaller, the same could still happen this November. On the one hand, Joe Biden leads in every single swing state and Trump’s approval rating on key issues is down with just 42% approving of his coronavirus response - compared to Biden’s 43% - and only 18% believing that the violence at protests will decrease if Trump is reelected. On the other hand, Trump still commands a 51% approval rating on his handling of the economy - a key issue for his reelection. On top of that, Joe Biden’s lead is fundamentally vulnerable: 56% of Biden voters only support him because he's not Trump. The lack of a motivating message for the Democrats is a fundamental weakness. It may be enough to coast on anti-Trump sentiment, but the Democrats really aren't doing themselves any favours. Add to this the fact that Biden has no ground campaign in the swing state of Michigan, choosing to focus only on digital campaigning, a mistake Hillary Clinton made in 2016, and you’ve got a very weak opposition campaign.
Wildcards
But besides the fundamental issues of the pandemic, the economy, and the protests, there are 3 wildcards in the run up to the election.
First, is the open seat on the Supreme Court. Trump has nominated a strong conservative to the Supreme Court, that could mobilise his own base, but also that of the Democrats. However, the issue of the Supreme Court is more existential for Democrats than for Republicans. If Trump’s Supreme Court nominee doesn’t go through, the court would still be 5-4 conservative, but if Trump is successful, the court will have a 6-3 conservative supermajority, relegating liberals to decades of irrelevance on the Supreme Court. So it’s unsurprising that following the death of liberal justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Democrats raised $250 million in one week, compared to just $400 million for the month of August. On top of that, the share of Democrats who considered the Supreme Court very important in deciding their vote increased from 48 to 60%, compared to an increase from 50 to 54% for Republicans. In other words, the issue is more motivating for Democrats.
Second, is President Trump testing positive for coronavirus. While some speculated that a sickly president might generate sympathy, the numbers tell a different story. 65% of voters think that Trump would not have been infected with coronavirus if he took the pandemic seriously. His infection has highlighted his perceived failure on the coronavirus issue and brought the pandemic to the forefront. This is an issue where he struggles with voters, rather than an issue like the economy, where he does well with them, and his standing in the polls has suffered as a result of this.
Third, is the credibility of the election. On the one hand, Trump has claimed that mail-in ballots open up the possibility for voter fraud by declaring that the election will be rigged using mail-in ballots. However, states like Oregon have used 100% mail in ballots since 1998 and in 22 years there have been just 14 cases of fraud out of 1.5 million ballots cast. Nonetheless, it is true that states implementing the policy only this year have faced significant logistical challenges. In the swing state of Ohio, 50,000 voters were mailed the wrong ballots. Although this was corrected, it only reinforces the fear of a rigged election. On the other side, Democrats have pointed to multiple voter suppression tactics used by Republicans. One such tactic is shutting down polling stations. For instance, in Kentucky, 95% of polling stations were closed and these disproportionately in urban areas that lean Democrat. That left the city of Louisville, which has over 600,000 registered voters, with just one polling station and countless people banging on its doors, because they didn’t have a chance to vote. While in Georgia, over 200,000 people have been wrongfully purged from the voters roll, disproportionately in Democratic leaning areas. And of course there are the measures taken by the postmaster general to undermine mail-in voting.
What this means is that even though Biden leads, a few hundred thousand votes can make a difference in key swing states. On top of that, Biden could win the election by over 5 million votes but still lose the electoral college. With Trump, on the one hand, calling into question the legitimacy of mail-in ballots and Democrats on the other pointing to voter suppression, both sides have been primed not to accept the results of the election. And that brings us to a volatile situation on election day.
A ‘Red Mirage’
Now previously we discussed the red-mirage scenario and it goes as follows. Democrats are twice as likely as Republicans to vote by mail, with 67% of those planning to vote by mail being Democrats. Mail-in ballots take much longer to count. Importantly, the swing states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin do not allow the counting of mail in ballots to begin until election day, delaying the vote count for several days. Thus, on election day, as all the in-person ballots are being counted, it will seem, just like a mirage, like Donald Trump is winning in an overwhelming electoral victory and Trump will declare himself the winner before all mail in ballots have been counted. But then, as the days go by and the mail in ballots which are disproportionately Democrat are counted, the mirage disappears and the election begins to swing in favour of Joe Biden.
However, at this stage, Trump and his supporters have already declared victory. For weeks preceding the election, President Trump has called into question the credibility of mail-in ballots. At the same time, Hillary Clinton has insisted that Joe Biden should not concede the election under any circumstances. Put this all together and suddenly you have an election in dispute. Just like in 2000, both the Trump and Biden campaigns will challenge the election results in court. But unlike in 2000 this will occur against the backdrop of massive polarisation and social unrest. People will take to the streets insisting that their candidate won. And because politicians on both sides have an incentive to keep their supporters mobilised and not back down and try to calm things down, the situation can only escalate. Add to this dangerous cocktail-armed extremist groups. For example, in the state of Michigan, a domestic terrorist plot to kidnap Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer was foiled. In the chaos that would unfold in a disputed election scenario, such actions by extremist groups are all the more likely. And so the inevitable result of such a scenario will be riots and massive civil unrest. A heavily disputed election.
Disputed Election
If the results are contested, the battle will play out in court. This is where the Supreme Court nomination comes into play. Back in 2000, a conservative leaning Supreme Court voted against allowing a recount, which definitely decided the election in favour of Bush. This time around, a conservative leaning Supreme Court, especially if Trump’s Supreme Court nominee is confirmed before the election, could decide the election in favour of Trump. However, there is nuance to this issue. Supreme Court justices being appointed by a conservative President and having a conservative judicial ideology does not necessarily mean that they will rule in favour of Trump, the courts are after all still independent and several conservative judges have ruled in favour of liberal issues like gay rights. But whichever way the court battle goes, and however the social unrest plays out, the impact on the markets and America’s geopolitical position can only be negative. With all the chaos and uncertainty that could surround a disputed election, this opens up the opportunity for geopolitical rivals like China.
An Open Goal for China
The elections take place at a time of an extremely turbulent internal situation. However, on November 3rd, Americans will also decide who will face what may be the greatest geopolitical call in US history. The question of stopping China. The next half decade may be pivotal to this issue.
Throughout his tenure, Donald Trump rightly viewed Chinese growth as a problem that could undermine US hegemony in the future. However, the effectiveness of counteracting this phenomenon remains questionable. The trade war declared on Beijing failed to change Washington's negative trade deficit. In addition, there is a decline in trust in the international forum after certain decisions such as the US withdrawal from the WHO. Biden opposed this departure however, his administration will more than likely retain the tariffs imposed by Trump and pursue a policy of reducing US dependence on China.
Joe Biden is also one-headed against Chinese expansionism. However, some Chinese analysts have pointed out that a Democratic candidate would be a more convenient choice for the Chinese Communist Party, as the Trump administration is extremely unpredictable. Biden is likely someone with whom negotiations to de-escalate the tense situation in the South China Sea would be more likely to succeed. Following this lead, Biden, as a more skilled diplomat, could also have a greater chance of consolidating the Western World towards the Chinese problem. Every stick has two ends, and whoever it is, we will surely observe, in the next four years, the competition for worldwide influence between Beijing and Washington.
Conclusion
Whichever way it goes, a contested election means that whoever becomes president, will have their legitimacy and mandate to rule put into question. This will have consequences for the authority of the president not just at home, but also abroad. However, none of this may play out in this way. A “red mirage” disputed election scenario depends on the election being close. The swing state of Florida will have its results on election day. If Florida goes for Biden, there is no realistic path for a Trump victory even if he still wins all the Rust Belt states a week later, states that he won in 2016. Nevertheless, what happens in the coming weeks, will determine the course of the United States in the coming years.
