- Tomasz Rydelek
Tripoli against Tobruk. Libya - 12 years since the fall of the Gaddafi regime.
The 20th of October marked 12 years since the death and fall of Mu'ammar Gaddafi. In that time, the Libyan people have seen a series of NATO bombings, two civil wars and the terror of Islamic State. After so many years of fighting and suffering, Libya's future still looks bleak. The country remains divided, with two power centres (one in Tripoli, the other in Tobruk) competing for influence. The situation is further complicated by the fact that Libya is an arena of competition between a number of foreign actors with interests on one side or the other in the Libyan conflict. How is it that Libya still hasn't managed to stabilise after 12 years?
The Green Prince and his Jamahiriya
As the Arab Spring protests swept Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan and other Arab countries in late 2010 and early 2011, US embassy staff in Tripoli struggled to assess whether the Arab Spring would reach Libya. To most, Muamar Gaddafi's rule seemed beyond threat.
Gaddafi had ruled Libya for 42 years. He was a controversial and eccentric leader. He set out his political creed in 1975 in the so-called Green Book, a strange combination of socialism, Islam and direct democracy. Gaddafi criticised private property, state institutions and the traditional definition of the state. Instead, he proposed the concept of a Jamahiriya ('state of the people') in which every aspect of life would be controlled by a myriad of people's committees.
Gaddafi was able to put his original ideas into practice thanks to the untold wealth beneath the surface of the Libyan desert - the oil discovered in the country in the late 50s. The complete transformation of the state was made all the easier by the fact that, despite its vast territory, Libya remains an extremely sparsely populated country. When Gaddafi came to power in 1969, Libya's population was less than 2 million.
Gaddafi's domestic radicalism was matched by his foreign policy. He saw himself as a revolutionary and spared no expense in supporting not only Palestinian organisations but also, for example, the Irish Republican Army or the African National Congress militias fighting apartheid in South Africa.
However, Gaddafi's revolutionary story had many dark sides. With his petrodollars, Gaddafi sponsored international terrorism. It was Libyan services that were behind the attack on Pan Am flight 103, which crashed over the Scottish town of Lockerbie, killing 270 people. Gaddafi's men were also responsible for the bombing of a discotheque in West Berlin, which killed 2 American soldiers and wounded another 200.
The dictator’s support for terrorism quickly brought him into confrontation with the United States. In 1986, President Reagan called Gaddafi the "Mad Dog of the Middle East" and ordered the bombing of strategic military bases in Libya. In 1992, the United Nations banned arms exports to Libya, and in 1996 the US imposed crippling economic sanctions on Libya.
Economic pressure eventually forced Gaddafi to make concessions. After the attacks of 11 September 2001, Gaddafi went from being the "Mad Dog of the Middle East " to one of Washington's most important partners in the global war on terror. Gaddafi's men provided the Americans with a wealth of intelligence on al-Qa'ida's activities, while the CIA often transferred captured jihadists to Libya, where they were held in the notorious Abu Salim prison, where Gaddafi also kept political prisoners.
In 2003, the sanctions were lifted, and in 2006, after a 26-year hiatus, the Americans reopened their embassy in Tripoli. Washington was optimistic about the prospects for continued cooperation with Libya. Hopes were particularly high for Mu'amar's son, Saif al Islam, around whom Libyan reformers had rallied. By some diplomats Saif was seen as Libya's potential future leader, capable of putting it on track for serious reforms.
When the Arab Spring protests began in the Middle East, the Americans did not see them as a significant threat to Gaddafi's continued rule. The Gaddafi family itself took a similar view. In January 2011, following the ousting of President Ben Ali by protesters in neighbouring Tunisia, Mu’amar’s youngest son, Khamis Gaddafi, embarked on an extensive tour of America, which included a visit to the West Point Military Academy.
But in February 2011, the Arab Spring uprising reached Libya. The scale and intensity of the protests took the security forces by surprise, and they began to lose control of the situation in Libyan cities. In just one week, Gaddafi lost control of most of Cyrenaica and its cities: Benghazi, Tobruk or Bayda.
Colonel Gaddafi appeared on television. He accused the protesters of being sponsored by foreign intelligence services and threatened to bring order to Libya 'street by street, house by house'. Similarly, Saif - considered a liberal - publicly announced that the streets of Libya's cities would be flooded with blood.
The Gaddafi clan chose the path of confrontation. Thus began the Libyan civil war, or rather its first episode.
Libya Ablaze
Gaddafi's forces quickly recovered from their initial defeats and went on the counter-offensive. By early March, loyalist forces were at the gates of Benghazi, the main city in eastern Libya. It seemed that crushing the rebellion was only a matter of time. But then the West arrived on the scene.
On the 12th of March, the Arab League asked the United Nations Security Council to impose a no-fly zone over Libya. In response, the Council adopted Resolution 1973, which authorised the use of all means to protect Libyan civilians.
A few days later, on 19 March, NATO launched a military intervention in Libya. Alliance aircraft began bombing the positions of Gaddafi's forces.
Although the Americans provided the largest contingent within the international coalition, the intervention's biggest supporter was French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who lobbied hard in Western capitals.
Resolution 1973, which formed the basis of the Nato intervention, spoke only of the need to protect civilians, not of overthrowing the Gaddafi regime. But even the 2016 British House of Commons inquiry into the Libyan intervention acknowledged that Nato's objectives had evolved, and that the original aim of protecting civilians was very quickly replaced by the desire to get rid of Gaddafi.
Instead of focusing solely on protecting civilians, NATO aircraft were used to provide de facto air support to rebel forces fighting Gaddafi's troops.
To make matters worse, the UN arms embargo on Libya was not respected. In fact, the coalition believed that the embargo only applied to supplies destined for Gaddafi. As a result, tonnes of weapons from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, among other countries, found their way to the rebels.
Gaddafi's army held out for a few more months, but the war was unwinnable. By August the rebels had taken the capital, Tripoli, and in October Gaddafi was killed near Sirte, one of the last bastions of loyalist control.
Gaddafi's death did not bring peace to Libya, but merely ushered in a new phase of the power struggle.
Militias over the state
Soon after Gaddafi's fall, the interim government made a decision that would have disastrous consequences in the months to come. In December 2011, the Central Bank began paying salaries to members of the rebel militias.
At the time, thousands of young Libyans decided that joining the militias was a good way to earn money. As a result, the ranks of the militias swelled to absurd proportions. It is estimated that around 50,000 rebels fought against Gaddafi, but soon after the Central Bank started paying them salaries, the militias increased their numbers fivefold to 250,000 fighters.
The anarchy that followed Gaddafi's fall was expected to be temporary. As early as 2012, elections were held for the General National Congress, which was supposed to draft a new constitution within 18 months. But the Congress proved helpless in the face of the militias.
The central government existed only on paper. The country was run by individual militias. They did not respect the Congress, the interim government nor each other. There was constant fighting between rival militias in Libyan cities. To make matters worse, some of the militias were not only after the money but also the ideology. A number of Islamist groups began to operate in the country, led by Libyan veterans of the jihad in Afghanistan.
The spread of militancy had disastrous consequences. In 2012, Ansar al-Shari'a jihadists succeeded in killing the United States' ambassador, Christopher Stevens, in Benghazi. A year later, another militia kidnapped the Libyan prime minister in Tripoli, while Ibrahim Jadhran, one of the warlords of Cyrenaica, seized export terminals and tried to sell Libyan oil on his own.
At the beginning of 2014, Libya was in total chaos. The country was ruled by militias. And the General National Congress had not only failed to draft a new constitution, but also it had extended its own term of office without any consultation.
The anarchy was quickly exploited by one man - Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar.
A friend from his youth
Khalifa Haftar was a close associate of Mu'amar Gaddafi for many years. They met in the 1960s when they were both studying at the military academy in Benghazi. Haftar was involved in a conspiracy against the king and in 1969, he participated in a military coup that brought Gaddafi to power. Through his acquaintance with Gaddafi, Haftar rose quickly, becoming chief of staff of the Libyan army.
In 1987, however, Haftar's career in the Jamahiriya came to an end when he was captured during Libya's war with Chad. Gaddafi was furious and stripped him of all his titles. According to unofficial sources, Haftar was allegedly recruited by the CIA while in a prisoner-of-war camp. He was released from the camp shortly afterwards. Haftar then joined the Libyan opposition and announced the formation of the so-called Libyan National Army to fight against Gaddafi.
Yet in 1990, a military coup took place in Chad and Haftar was forced to flee. With the help of the Americans, he settled in northern Virginia and disappeared from public life for several decades. Haftar did not return to Libya until 2011, after the civil war had already begun. He announced the reactivation of the Libyan National Army and tried, unsuccessfully, to take command of all rebel forces.
But Haftar was determined and spent the following months rebuilding his former influence. The opportunity to return to the scene came in early 2014, when the General National Congress extended its term.
Haftar then went on television and called for a rebellion against the Congress and for new elections. The interim government called Haftar a 'rebel' and accused him of trying to stage a military coup. But Haftar went ahead with his plan. In May, he launched an operation codenamed 'Dignity' against Islamist militias operating in Benghazi. Meanwhile, he secured support from Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Russia, and more militias began to join his Libyan National Army.
Tripoli versus Tobruk
Finally, in June 2014, Libya held another election, this time for the House of Representatives to replace the ineffective Congress. However, only 18% of eligible citizens took part. Such a low turnout raised doubts about the legitimacy of the new parliament.
The Islamists associated with the Muslim Brotherhood suffered a heavy defeat in the elections. So they refused to recognise the election results and took control of the capital, Tripoli, by force, fearing that Haftar would subjugate the whole of Libya.
Soon afterwards, it was announced that the General National Congress would continue its work. The newly elected House of Representatives had to move eastwards to areas controlled by Haftar.
Libya thus entered a period of dual government. The western part of the country was controlled by the General National Congress, based in Tripoli. The east was controlled by the House of Representatives, seated in Tobruk. But the power of the House of Representatives was nominal. The de facto ruler was Military Marshal Haftar, to whom the House entrusted the position of head of the Libyan land forces.
The extent to which the second civil war has complicated the situation in Libya is best illustrated by the fact that while the fighting was going on between the Tripoli forces and Haftar's army, the Central Bank of Libya (based in Tripoli) was paying the salaries of both warring parties.
As if that were not enough, the outbreak of the second civil war was briefly exploited by the jihadists. Some of the more radical militias pledged allegiance to the Islamic State, and black flags flew over Sirte, Darna and parts of Benghazi. It was not until the end of 2016 that the forces of the Caliphate were successfully pushed out of Libyan cities.
Haftar marches on Tripoli
Fighting between Haftar's forces and Tripoli was long and bloody, but neither side could gain a significant advantage and the front remained stalemated.
At the end of 2015, the two warring parties signed a peace agreement in Morocco, on the basis of which a Government of National Reconciliation was formed, based in Tripoli. The government began its work, but soon proved to be just another dysfunctional institution, and fighting resumed.
Finally, in early 2019, there was a breakthrough. For months, Marshal Haftar's forces were bolstered by arms supplies from Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Russia, which even sent the Wagner Group to Libya. Haftar was strengthened enough to be ready for a final crackdown on the government in Tripoli.
In January 2019, Haftar's forces seized Sabha, in the southwest of the country, and the surrounding oil fields. In April, Haftar began to tighten the noose around Tripoli. His Libyan National Army captured Gharjan, cutting the land link between Tripoli and Tunisia. Just when it looked like Haftar was going to get his way and subjugate Tripoli, another twist occurred and a new player appeared on the scene - Turkey.
Erdogan goes to war
Turkey has been involved in the Libyan crisis since the beginning, in 2011, when it joined the NATO intervention against Gaddafi. Libya, on the other hand, has close historical and cultural ties with Turkey.
Between 1551 and 1912, Libya was part of the Ottoman Empire. Today, it is estimated that up to 20% of Libyans have Turkish roots. Haftar's march on Tripoli, however, caught the attention of the Turks, not out of a desire to defend their compatriots, but because of the harsh interests involved in the situation in the Mediterranean.
As the noose tightened around Tripoli, the dispute between Turkey and Greece over the division of Mediterranean waters and the establishment of exclusive economic zones escalated. The game was worth the candle, because there are large deposits of gas at the bottom of the eastern Mediterranean. Billions of dollars were at stake.
In this game, the Turks decided to play the ace up their sleeve. In November 2019, Ankara signed an agreement with the government in Tripoli on the delimitation of maritime borders. According to the agreement, Turkey's exclusive economic zone would border directly on Libya's. In this way, the Turks have de facto taken part of the waters claimed by Athens.
However, the agreement would have been worthless if Haftar had seized Tripoli. Therefore, immediately after the agreement was signed, Turkey significantly increased its military support to the Tripoli government. Syrian rebel troops that the Turks had recruited to fight in Libya arrived in Tripoli in December 2019.
A month later, with Haftar declaring that the end of Tripoli was near, President Erdogan officially announced the start of Turkey's military intervention. Thanks to Turkish support, within six months Haftar's forces had been driven out of not only the capital itself, but also many other Tripolitanian towns.
The Turks also attempted to occupy the central part of Libya, but their offensive on Sirte quickly collapsed and a stalemate ensued on the front, again. The two sides, already tired of fighting, signed a permanent ceasefire agreement in October 2021.
A house divided
2 years after the end of the second civil war, Libya remains a deeply divided country. Although the 2021 ceasefire established a Government of National Unity to govern the whole country, the rivalry between Tripoli and Tobruk has not disappeared.
The depth of this rivalry is best illustrated by the situation in 2022. The Libyan parliament, the Council of Representatives, which is still based in the east of the country, passed a vote of no confidence in the Tripoli-based government of Prime Minister ad-Dubayba. The Council of Representatives appointed Fathi Bashagha as the new Prime Minister. However, when Bashagha went to Tripoli to take office, militias drove him out of the capital.
Meanwhile, incumbent Prime Minister Dubayba refused to leave office, claiming that the parliament's decision to remove him from the post was invalid. Dubayba has said that he will not leave power until parliamentary and presidential elections have been held. However, no one knows when these will finally take place. They have been postponed several times in the past two years.
Epilogue
In early September, Cyclone Daniel hit north-eastern Libya. Increased rainfall caused two dams near the city of Derna to burst. The water released flooded Derna. At least 11,000 people died in the floods.
The tragedy of Derna is to some extent, emblematic of the current situation in Libya. Several years ago, experts warned local authorities that Derna's dams were in critical need of repair. But calls for urgent action went unanswered.
Despite two civil wars and several attempts at a peace agreement, Libya remains divided between two rival power centres that are unwilling to compromise, and even when they do, and under pressure from the international community, they ultimately fail to abide by it. It seems that both Tripoli and Marshal Haftar are still hoping that the international situation will change in their favour and that they will have the opportunity to seize power over the whole country.
The number of foreign actors involved in Libya also makes it difficult to reach a compromise or settle the country's fate on the battlefield. The government in Tripoli is backed by Turkey and Qatar. In contrast, Egypt, Russia and the United Arab Emirates support Field Marshal Haftar. As soon as one side in the conflict gains the upper hand, foreign actors supporting the other side increase their aid and maintain the status quo. This was the case, for example, during Haftar's march on Tripoli, when the city's fall seemed inevitable, but Turkish intervention turned the tide of the battle.
However, there still seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel for Libya. After many years of strained relations, in 2021 Turkey has normalised ties with the United Arab Emirates. Ankara's relations with Abu Dhabi are improving, as evidenced by a series of bilateral visits in recent months. Gradually, but very slowly, reconciliation between Turkey and Egypt is also progressing. In the summer of 2023, Ankara and Cairo resumed diplomatic relations and embassies after a 10-year hiatus.
There is a chance that improving relations between Turkey, Egypt and the Emirates could also have a positive impact on the situation in Libya. If these three countries begin to put pressure on their Libyan allies, a peace agreement could perhaps be implemented. But would the Libyan factions accept it, or would they take up arms again?
