- Hubert Walas
Target: Novorossiya?
Tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and Russian army trucks are moving towards the Ukrainian border. For two weeks, Russian and Ukrainian social media have been providing reports showing the high intensity of the Russian Federation's army maneuvers. Now, everyone is asking one question: will they attack?
Mobilization
At the beginning of April 2021, social media circulated photos and videos of the transport of Russian Armed Forces to the West of the country, close to the border with Ukraine. The commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Ruslan Chomczak, reported that the Russians had gathered 28 tactical battalion groups near the Ukrainian border and another 25 were preparing for transfer and deployment. In Crimea, the number of Russian soldiers increased significantly to 33,000 and in the so-called separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, 14 Russian combat brigades are stationed. Due to this dynamic situation, these numbers may change in real-time. Rohan Consulting reported that all currently maneuvering units in Russia’s Southern Military District are located outside of their bases, which is an unprecedented situation.
The recent moves in Donbas were preceded by a tightening of the situation in the region. The ceasefire signed at the end of June 2020 was effective and actually calmed the situation. However, by the beginning of 2021, it was over. The agreement was breached many times. Ukrainians claim 570 violations of the ceasefire by the Russian side since the beginning of the year.
One of the goals of Moscow's game is to test the newly established Biden administration which showed itself to be actually relatively quick and decisive. The US Command of the Armed Forces EUCOM raised the combat readiness level in connection with the situation in eastern Ukraine. Washington also announced it would partially withdraw from the Middle East in order to strengthen American presence in other regions and allied countries. This was later confirmed by Joe Biden triumphantly announcing the US victory against the Taliban and the complete withdrawal from Afghanistan on September 11, 2021. Exactly 20 years after the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center.
Of course, it cannot be assumed in advance that these forces will find their way to NATO's eastern flank, much less to Ukraine, as Washington's unchanging priority is the Asia-Pacific region, but the Russians have treated the news defiantly. Moscow does not rule out the appearance of an American contingent in Ukraine, as it has already announced that if one appears there, or anywhere in its “near abroad,” Russia will be forced to take additional steps. Unofficial reports also tell about the landings of American transport aircraft in Ukraine or the reconnaissance flights of Global Hawk planes over the battlefield by the demarcation line.
Novorossiya
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the special forces of the Russian Federation are preparing a series of border provocations, the intention of which is to cause clashes and provoke Ukraine to strike. As a result, Moscow would have a casus belli to retaliate and the opportunity to present Kyiv, to the world media, as the aggressor. It would therefore be a repetition of the Georgian scenario of 2008 and the clashes on the Georgian border with the republics of Ossetia and Abkhazia. At the same time, we must be aware that such a wide influx of photos, videos, and reports of moving Russian troops would not have happened without the consent of the Kremlin. It is part of Russian information warfare within the framework of a hybrid war. If the Russians were planning an attack, it would not have been preceded by a wave of videos on Twitter or TikTok. Therefore, Ukrainian military analyst Yuri Butusov believes that while Russia is preparing a scenario of a military incursion into Ukraine, but not now, rather more likely during the Zapad 2021 exercises in September, when the troops will be closer to the border.
Russian media, including Moskovskij Komsomolets, have for some time now been running an information campaign to prepare the public for a possible escalation of the conflict in Donbas. The argument is the military weakness of the separatist republics which stand no chance against a possible offensive of the regular Ukrainian Army. Hence the need for Russia to defend them. This is supported by the narrative of Russian troops being "welcomed with flowers" by the liberated inhabitants of Ukraine’s eastern lands. The situation is presented as a zero-sum game - in the first variant, in the case of the Ukrainian offensive and if Russia does not get involved, it will lose control over Donbas and will lose this rivalry.
The second option is much more favorable and is encouraged by Igor Strelkov, the former defense minister of the separatist Republic of Donetsk. In an interview with Arguments and Facts, the most popular Russian weekly magazine, the reserve force colonel said that the Russian goal of this war which “will not be a walk in the park” should be separating Mariupol, Odessa, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk from Ukraine. Basically, the lands east of the Dnieper. After their incorporation into the territories controlled today by the separatists, such a "state" will be able to function independently. This would, in effect, mean the emergence of a new, medium-sized state in Europe - Novorossiya.
Of course, Strelkov's statement cannot be treated as Moscow's official line. However, 10 years ago, the vision of Russia taking over Crimea and Donbas also seemed abstract. As regards the incorporation of Donbas, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that there are no such plans. However, Putin himself, in a meeting with Russian editors, said that Russia "will never leave Donbas."
NATO or a Nuclear Weapon?
Another important issue is the diplomatic perspective on which both sides view the Donbas conflict. Since the beginning of 2021, Moscow has been giving signals that it is not satisfied with the progress in implementing the provisions of the Minsk and Normandy formats by indicating to France and Germany to put more pressure on Ukraine. The Russians did not like the official communication of Ukrainians calling the Russian Federation an "aggressor state" in relation to Crimea and Donbas. The situation is similar with the tightening of Kyiv’s stance towards the pro-Russian opposition. According to the Kremlin, the "arms suppliers," that is the Americans, are actually behind these actions.
In fact, Volodymyr Zelensky's administration puts its strongest bet on the Washington card. The head of Ukrainian diplomacy, Dmytro Kuleba, in an interview with the new US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, raised the topic of a potential military alliance in the Black Sea region, which would include Moldova and Georgia in addition to Ukraine. At the same time, Kuleba assured that Ukraine is not negotiating with the US to obtain the status of a special ally. A tripartite agreement would therefore be a soft option for the Biden administration. What’s more, Blinken declared that the United States shows unwavering support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.
That said, some US analysts have been warning president Biden not to follow George W. Bush's path towards Georgia in 2008. So as not to overstate his administration’s guarantees for Kyiv which, as a result, may make the Ukrainians feel too confident in Washington's support and will thus wrongly calculate the balance of power. This will immediately be carefully tested by Moscow and may end badly for the Ukrainians. In a word, and as always, it is about sound strategic calculation.
The long-term goal of Zelensky’s administration is Ukraine's membership in NATO. Kyiv would like to be presented with a roadmap for membership into said alliance. The President of Ukraine stated that "Ukraine's membership in NATO is the only way to end the war in Donbas, and the membership plan will be a real signal to Russia." However, this target may be too ambitious at the moment, as the majority of member states resist such a solution and say that Ukraine must first undergo a series of reforms to be considered for entry. The membership action plan is, at the moment, the only real goal within Kyiv’s reach, although Ukrainians still have another strong card up their sleeve.
Ukraine's ambassador to Germany stated that if Kyiv was not admitted to NATO, Ukraine would have to think about its own nuclear status. We should remember that Ukraine already had nuclear weapons, but under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, it voluntarily gave them up to Russia in exchange for security guarantees and respect for its sovereignty and territorial integrity precisely by the Russian Federation, but also the United States and the United Kingdom. Exactly 20 years later it turned out how much these guarantees were worth. Recognizing the potential of the Ukrainian nuclear sector, it is probably within the Ukrainians' reach to rebuild these capabilities.
Who Can Kyiv Count On?
The posture of countries to the West of Ukraine - Poland, Germany, and France - looks unfavorable for Kyiv. While Warsaw presents itself as a determined ally of Ukraine, apart from empty diplomacy, it has virtually no tools to influence the conflict. France and Germany are different, as they have many opportunities to put economic pressure on Moscow. However, the narrative of Paris and Berlin presented a line closer to Moscow than to Kyiv. This was shown by two events. First, Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel decided that the opinion of the Ukrainians about the war on their territory was not so important and they contacted Vladimir Put over the heads of the Ukrainians, not even inviting them to talk which was a breach of Ukraine's policy on the Donbas; "Nothing about us without us.”
Second, the French and German foreign ministries, in a joint statement, presenting their position included a call to “de-escalate the situation by both sides of the conflict,” meaning: Ukraine and Russia. 7 years was enough for Paris and Berlin to forget who was the aggressor in this conflict, equating both sides to a common denominator. German commentator Julian Ropcke, specializing in national security issues, called this fact "shameful madness." This fact probably caused the dismissal of the Ukrainian ambassador to the European Union.
Such a significant disproportion in the behavior of the capitals of Western Europe and Washington means that Moscow wants to conduct potential negotiations only with Paris and Berlin, specifically excluding Washington. Moreover, Russia would like to continue the talks within the Minsk format, not the Normandy one. In the Minsk trilateral talks, Russia is not a party to the negotiations, unlike in the Normandy format. However, representatives of the separatists are a party in the Minsk format, so increasing the rank of these talks in effect increases the international legitimization of the self-proclaimed republics, while also placing Russia outside the conflict and so presenting the war in Donbas as Kyiv’s internal problem. The Russians also accuse the Ukrainians of torpedoing the Minsk talks, because the Ukrainians, noticing Belarus' partiality, demanded that the talks be moved elsewhere.
What is also important, and what shows the constantly growing status of Turkey in the Black Sea region, is that Ankara is also playing its own game here. Probably after the Americans, the Turks are the most important 'ally' of Ukrainians in the conflict in the East. Of course, there won’t be regular Turkish troops fighting at the front, but Turkish diplomacy is unequivocally on the side of Kyiv. Turkish President Erdogan recently met with Zelensky and assured him of his support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine. But more important than words are military and technological cooperation, which includes the sharing and development of technology for the production of drones and navy corvettes. In addition, Kyiv recently purchased Turkish Bayraktar combat drones. Ankara is also in favor of Kyiv’s accession to NATO. The Kremlin's reaction did not take long - it banned flights to Turkey, which is a popular destination for Russian tourists, while Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the Turks not to support Ukrainian militarist sentiment.
This all shows how many variables there are to deal with. The development of the situation is very unpredictable. One thing to remember is that Russia treats war as a tool to achieve its political goals. That is, by escalating the conflict, it creates an opportunity to more quickly develop projects that are in its strategic interest, such as Nord Stream 2. There are rumors that Russia is willing to withdraw if the international environment - mainly the USA - allows it to complete its gas pipeline on the bottom of the Baltic Sea. However, the Budapest Memorandum shows how credible such proposals by the Kremlin may be perceived. The second goal is to test the Biden administration.
How far can Moscow go? At the time of writing this analysis, the trading of blows continues - Washington has imposed sanctions on Moscow for interfering in its presidential election and is pushing to stop NS2, while Putin refuses to talk to Biden about Ukraine, cuts off Americans from discussion, and asks Berlin and Paris to 'temper' Kyiv. The very fact that we must distinguish between the positions of Washington, Paris, or Berlin tells a lot about the state of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. This is yet more fuel that Moscow is adding to the fire: NATO's reliability is not confirmed in periodic joint exercises, but precisely at times like this. That is what Russia is trying to show. At the moment, it is hard to say whether the Russo-Ukrainian war will explode into a full-blown war. Most experts hold that the chances of such a scenario aren’t great. However, this possibility cannot be completely ruled out.
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