- Hubert Walas
How the start of World War III could look like?
In April 2019, a war game simulation at Marine Corps War College in Quantico was held to simulate the start of a potential world war. The conflict involved all major global players - the US, China, Russia, and Japan. The fights again focused in Poland, as well as on the Korean Peninsula. Although the game lasted only two days and it presented preparations and the beginning of the war, the conclusions that the game delivered are very interesting.
War game
At the outset, it should be noted that the game was led by Professor James Lacey, professor of Strategic Studies at Marine Corps War College in Quantico. To prepare the game, the participants received an 8-year period of preparation for the war. It resembled the growing tension in the world of the 1930s, before World War II. At that time, Russia occupied the Baltic States and all of Ukraine. Therefore, the scenario begins with a situation in which the Russian Federation threatens Poland. As in 1939, Poland became the core that focused NATO's attention on the forthcoming threat from Russia, which led to a grouping of North Atlantic Alliance and Russian forces on the new Eastern Front. China, on the other hand, is starting the scenario during the debt crisis and is planning to use the US focus on Russia to annex Taiwan. In Pyongyang, the always opportunistic Kim Jong-un, decides that the time has come to take control over the whole Korean Peninsula. For the needs of the war game, each of these events took place simultaneously.
Preparation for the war
Six teams took part in the war game. Three of them were Russia, China, and North Korea - countries designated as the red faction. They fought with three blue teams representing Taiwan, Indo-Pacific Command and European Command. All these teams could coordinate their activities both before and during the conflict. Interestingly, the blue side deemed it necessary for one player to play the role of the head of the joint staff to better coordinate US and allied operations globally.
Before the game, participants received a list of about 75 technology areas in which they could invest, which would give them tangible advantages during the war itself. Almost everything was on the table, from the purchase of an additional aircraft carrier or combat brigade to the attempt to launch quantum computing technology. Each team received $ 200 billion for these investments, but the Russians and Chinese were given half of it. The Russians as a result of their economic weakness, and the Chinese due to the crisis occurring in the scenario. Each team, having a choice, heavily invested in modern hypersonic, cybernetic technology. Both offensive and defensive. As well as reconnaissance from space and laser technologies. Interestingly, the blue team has also invested heavily in targeted diplomacy to convince the Allied countries to act, when the time will come. This can be understood as the creation of joint geoeconomic instruments, joint logistics activities, joint exercises, uniform operational concepts. If they did not, Germany and two other NATO nations would not appear in the fight in Poland, and Japan would not help Taiwan. Understanding the fundamental importance of logistics, both red and blue used weapons directed energy weapons to defend key logistics hubs: airports, ports, warehouses.
As the advantages of quantum computing were so huge, the US team spent a huge portion of their investment capital on the fight for quantum dominance. It is mainly about quantum communication with the situational awareness system and synchronization of command and control during the war. C2 - command & control. But it failed. Interestingly, no one has seen the need for an additional aircraft carrier, while everyone has invested heavily in the development of artificial intelligence, offensive submarines, and stealth aircraft. The US team also invested in the modernization of logistics infrastructure, which had a significant positive impact on maintaining three global fronts.
Critical selection
Because the American military strength was insufficient to fight and win three large, simultaneous conflicts, difficult strategic choices had to come. The American team quickly decided that the loss of Taiwan was not an existential threat to the United States. With the exception of the symbolic forces of the Marine Corps, Taiwan was left alone on the land, while significant US air and sea resources challenged the Chinese on sea and land, according to the American concept in the Eastern Pacific - AirSea Battle. Players from the United States team perceived Taiwan as an additional military force that would again strengthen ground troops after winning the great battle with Russia. Thus, the blue team decided to defend Taiwan with the help of air and naval force, which constantly harassed Chinese attempts to rebuild its land forces on the island. The situation was similar in South Korea. Though considered key to US long-term security, it was also primarily responsible for its own defense. The 2nd and 25th American Infantry Division were stationed on the island, as were two US Marine regiments. Despite this, most of the fighting was left to South Korean forces.
The strategy of the blue team can be considered quite surprising. Trusting that China and North Korea did not have military ambitions beyond their immediate goals in the region, the US team adopted a "Europe Priority" strategy similar to the strategic decisions taken by the nation during World War II. As a result, eight divisions of the US Army, most of the Marine Corps, and significant air resources reached Europe. However, the US Navy command dislodged almost all of the Pacific ships in anticipation of a war with China. For this reason, the GIUK gate - strategically key crossing in the North Pacific between Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom remained poorly secured and potentially vulnerable to the influence of Russian aviation and navy. The scenario allowed for a long-term strategic pooling of resources in Europe, which seems debatable in the event of a real conflict.
Call of Duty
The Koreans from the South, noticing the coming conflict, managed to warn their border forces and start moving troops to the northern part of the country. However, North Korea struck before these meals were fully deployed. North Korea's original goal was to strike hard, bypass Seoul, and drive deep into South Korea.
North had its initial success before Seoul and managed to break through the South Korean lines in the center. However, the North Koreans were unable to take advantage of this success before the US Marines and the 2nd and 25th Army divisions, approaching from the south, built a second defensive line along the Bukhan River.
When the middle offensive was stopped by American reinforcements, North Koreans struck Seoul, which acted as a magnet for forces in the area. However, North Korea's logistical problems in maintaining continuity of attack were already visible. They were delayed, and congestion slowed down the rise of combat strength along the battle line. To regain momentum, the Chinese engaged their 79th and 80th army in the offensive. But South Koreans and Americans defended Seoul and stopped the attack along the Bukhan River. It is noteworthy that much of the American success was due to the huge number of flights from bases in South Korea, Japan, and nearby aircraft carriers. However, when China entered the fight, the aircraft carriers were forced to retreat behind the other chain of islands, beyond the reach of Chinese DF-21 and DF-26 rockets, which is close to 1500km.
While South Korea was under extreme pressure, the US team moved the 82nd Airborne Division from a reserve position near Warsaw, Poland to Seoul. After relocation to the other side of the globe, the 82nd was immediately sent to the battlefield. This maneuver was enough to stop the Chinese offensive, at least temporarily.
However, in order to gain advantage again, North Koreans resorted to use for chemical weapons. Without an adequate conventional response to chemical strikes that resulted in tens of thousands of military and civilian casualties, the commander of the blue Indopacific team asked the superior authority to be released for the use of nuclear weapons.
Taiwan - a Vietnam reminder?
In Taiwan, the courageous defense of national beaches was short-lived. Taiwan did not have enough strength to repel China's attack. The Chinese, after a successful air attack, forced Taiwanese troops to retreat into the mountainous interior of the country.
When the Chinese consolidated the bridgeheads, provided heavier forces, and carefully moved inland, the Taiwanese withdrew to Taipei. Here they intended to carry out local counterattacks and maintain at least part of the island until the United States came to their aid. Chinese air forces were severely inhibited by the US Navy and aviation, which, despite the retreat of aircraft carriers, were able to cause serious damage to the Chinese invasion arm and destroy their landing points in Taiwan. On land, the resistance of Taiwanese forces was strengthened by the inclusion of Japanese forces in the defense line - it was the result of the American team's investment in pre-war guided diplomacy and Japan’s concern that both Taiwan and the Republic of Korea could be taken over by China. The Chinese, unable to make progress in difficult terrain, suffering losses due to numerous local counterattacks soon settled in strategic positions, waiting for more combat force to arrive from the continent.
Brutal eastern front
The fight in Poland was much more brutal. According to participants' estimates, NATO forces lost over 60,000 men and women on the first day of the fight. The Poles, determined to maintain as much of their national territory as possible, refused to withdraw from the main defense line of NATO and suffered very serious losses. US Army divisions were initially moved far away from the defense line as a force waiting for a counterattack.
Despite the best intentions of the NATO commander, it was impossible to gather US forces to perform one powerful counterattack. Due to Russia's ongoing pressure on the front, the American leadership was forced to disperse all its divisions to support its hesitating allies. Interestingly, this led to the third great battle of Grunwald, the first took place in 1410, and the second in 1914.
To stop the Russians, the NATO commander was forced to send the 10th Mountain Division to support the crippled Poles, while the 1st Cavalry and the 1st Armored Division counterattacked further south. The result was a great battle in Masuria, as a result of which most Allied and Russian units suffered about 50 percent losses in 72 hours.
After days of heavy fighting, NATO managed to stabilize its front, enabling several heavy divisions to be moved from the line and a devastating counterattack was conducted on the Russian southern flank towards Bialystok. At that time, naval expeditionary forces closed the entire Russian division in the north of Poland by the Bay of Vistula. At the moment of losing the momentum on the front, Russian commanders asked the command for the right to use nuclear weapons in order not to lose the war and negotiate favorable truce conditions. It’s a part of Russia’s “escalate to deescalate” doctrine in terms of nuclear missiles usage.
Conclusions
The post-conflict review left many materials for reflection. It should be remembered, however, that it is the effect of only two days of play. In addition, these war games were designed to help future officers think about conflicts and operational art, and not for serious analytical work. However, even this kind of gameplay can direct command to areas requiring more analysis.
First of all - the modern conventional battleground still remains extremely bloody. Even in the first week of the war, the Allies suffered over 150,000 casualties during the fighting in Poland, Korea, and Taiwan. For students who have spent their entire military life seeing the loss of a squad or platoon as a military disaster, this has led to many discussions on how to lead forces, and how long such intensity can be maintained.
The second extensive issue that strongly affected the United States camp was logistics. Although logistics has been greatly simplified for the game, much of the discussion after the end of the game focused on the inability of Americans to support even half their strength in the theater. It was equally problematic to maintain the intensity of the fight that would allow victory.
Air forces, when they could be used, were a decisive advantage on the battlefield. However, planes rarely appeared as an aid in land warfare because aviation prioritized gaining domination in the air domain. It was only when the air force completed the campaign to destroy the enemy's Integrated Air Defense System (IADS) and victory in the air battle that they were ready to help in the ground battle. The reluctance to use aircraft carriers in the Pacific, which was caused by operating within the reach of Chinese missile systems DF-21 and 26, made them practically useless.
In addition, neither US forces nor allied forces had the answer to counteract the overwhelming effects of enemy artillery, which accounted for the majority of US and allied losses. In the cybernetic domain, any cyber attack launched alone proved to be useless. However, cyber attacks launched in conjunction with maneuvering forces have always proved to be a destructive combination.
Interestingly, neither the US nor its allies have reacted adequately to the use of chemical weapons by the enemy, except for a request for nuclear release. It is noteworthy that each battle led to a very rapid escalation and headed towards total war because the commanders of both sides did not want to have any restrictions on the use of weapons in their theater of war. Every time the commander encountered a military failure, he asked for authorization to use nuclear weapons.
The North Atlantic Alliance is still able to exert tremendous pressure on the ground, but it should be remembered that this was only possible because the participants spent a huge portion of their budget on targeted diplomacy to rebuild damaged alliances. The simulation of the conflict in Korea, showed that allies must withstand at least 10 days for the North Korean logistics chain to collapse. It should be remembered, however, that the fighting remains brutal even after the collapse of North Korea's logistics system. In addition, limiting terrain and density of strength lead to particularly intense combat.
In the end, the game also showed that the country in which the fighting took place was primarily responsible for defending itself. The Americans, of course, supported their allies, but operating mainly in the rear and joining the fighting as a last resort. Poles and South Koreans, whose territories were the main theaters of the war, suffered the most. And this conclusion remains probably the most important message of this simulation. Each nation is responsible for its own security and no alliance will free it from this obligation. The report was based on the article “HOW DOES THE NEXT GREAT POWER CONFLICT PLAY OUT? LESSONS FROM A WARGAME” by James Lacey.
