- Konrad Muzyka
Zapad 2021.
Between 10-16 September 2021 Russia and Belarus will conduct what is called the ‘Zapad’ Command and Staff exercise. This will be undoubtedly the most important exercise of 2021 or perhaps even since 2017 when the last iteration of Zapad was held. So what is Zapad, where will it be held, what scenarios will be practiced, and what purpose does it serve?
What is Zapad?
On a basic level, the Russian Armed Forces are divided into five Military Districts based on the geographical location of military units. These include Eastern, Central, Southern, Western, and Northern Military Districts.
Each year a large-scale military exercise is held in one of those districts, which also highlights the peak of the summer exercise schedule. In 2018 it was the Eastern Military District, which organized the Vostok-2018 (Russian name for East) exercise. Then in 2019 in Central MD the Centre-2019 drill was held, which was followed by the Kavkaz-2020 undertaken in the Southern Military District.
Each exercise has its unique theme. Vostok, for instance, despite the official Russian narrative, is designed to practice combined-arms, high-tempo operations against China. Centre, on the other hand, seeks to practice deployments over long distances, strategic mobility. The role of the Central MD is that of a swing or reserve MD. It can provide additional manpower and equipment to any district that is engaged in combat operations. The Southern Military District, on the other hand, focuses on several threats. Although significantly subsided since the mid-2000s, there still is a concern that terrorist cells could penetrate Russian borders from the south and conduct terrorist attacks on civilian targets in Russia. At the same time, Southern MD-based forces practice conventional operations against Georgia and Ukraine. Last but not least, and this also partly fits into the Zapad narrative, units from southern Russia conduct training operations against highly sophisticated conventional opposing forces, such as NATO, that can attack Russia from the Black Sea.
This year, it is the Western Military District’s turn to host a major military exercise. Historically ‘Zapad,’ which in Russian means ‘West,’ has had a very strong anti-NATO character. The exercise was first organized in 1981 and since then Zapad has been held five times, twice during the Cold War and three times since 1999.
Due to the nature of the exercise and the threats it seeks to address, Russian and Belarusian forces practice operations across the entire spectrum of warfare, from low-level peacekeeping and peace-making missions, through high-tempo combined-arms armored and mechanized operations, all the way to conducting simulated nuclear strikes. Indeed, it was reported that during Zapad-2009, Russia conducted a nuclear strike on the Polish capital, Warsaw. In 2017 a test of an ICBM, or Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile, was conducted on the last day of the Zapad-2017 suggesting it was a war termination move.
Zapad usually gathers a lot of attention from world media and NATO countries with the focus being paid on the active phase of the exercise, which will take place between 10-16 September. However, this is incorrect. Zapad does not last a week. In fact, it is a series of combined exercises, with different names that occur over several months, before and after September. At the same time, Zapad is not only a one military district exercise. It also involves units from the Southern, Northern, and Central MDs, which support the Western MD in its fight against NATO and NATO-supported forces.
Scenario
The date of this year’s exercise was confirmed in January after Belarusian and Russian Ministries of Defence had joint planning sessions. What followed were multiple conferences between Belarusian and Russian planners on the scope, size, scenario, and missions of Zapad.
The scenario to be practiced this year assumes that a region has been destabilized, thereby threatening regional security, and that Belarus, therefore the Union state of Russia and Belarus, has been invaded.
The aggressors are illegal armed groups, separatist, and international terrorist organizations with external support. These euphemisms are just a Russian way of describing NATO and its allies. To this end, Zapad always assumes the creation of what is called ‘conditional’ states and actors that fight against each other. On the one hand, there is a manifestation of the existing Union State, which this year is called the ‘Northern’ group. It includes the Republic of Polesie and the Central Federation. Opposing forces are the ‘Western’ group and include states of Nyaris, Pomorie, and the Polar Republic. It is unclear to what extent these states resemble existing entities, but there are some plausible parallels.
Firstly - it is fair to assume that the Central Federation is either Russia only or the Union State as a whole.
The second “Northern” state - Polesie, actually exists, but it is a historical region, a marshy one lining the Pripyat River in Southern Belarus near the cities of Brest, Pinsk, Kalinkavichy, and Gomel. It is also part of Northern Ukraine and partly also of Eastern Poland and Western Russia. Most presumably however Polesie represents Belarus in Zapad 2021 nomenclature.
When it comes to the Western countries, In Russian, Nyaris is actually the other name for Viliya, which is the river that rises in northern Belarus, and ultimately flows through Vilnius, and then flows into the Neman River. Most likely meaning Nyaris is Lithuania.
Pomorie could be Poland as it resembles the Polish region of Pomorze, which encompasses the southern shore of the Baltic Sea in Central Europe and is split between Poland and Germany. Since this is a vast area, the term could refer to just Gdansk Pomerania, which is a smaller area next to the Kaliningrad Oblast.
The Polar Republic is not as obvious as the previous ones. It could mean other Baltic Countries - Latvia and Estonia or simply be the Northern, Arctic front. Indeed, in recent weeks Russian forces have also been deploying their forces into the Kola Peninsula and Novaya Zemlya. 'Zapad' also always includes the Northern Fleet and the protection of sea approaches towards the Kola Peninsula and the defense of Russian interests over the Arctic.
Neither Russia nor Belarus has released maps on the scenarios to be practiced during Zapad so this is just one of the interpretations that could be used to understand which areas the Union State considers to be the most threatened.
Size, locations, and side exercises
In July it was announced that the exercise would take place at several ranges in Belarus and Russia.
In Belarus, they include the 230th Obuz-Lesnovsky combined-arms training ground, the 174th Domanovsky Air and Air Defence Forces, the 210th Ruzhansky aviation training range and the Brestsky training ground.
On Russian territory, Zapad will be held in Mulino, Pogonovo, Dobrovolsky, Kamenka, Pravdisky, Strugi Krasnye, and Khmelevka. However, these are only the officially released ranges. In reality, however, training will likely be conducted in other ranges across the entire Western theatre, from the Kola Peninsula to Crimea.
Concurrently, the number of personnel taking part in Zapad is unclear. Belarusian Chief of Defence Staff announced in July that only 12,800 service personnel will be involved in the drill. However, in August the First Deputy Head of the Main Directorate of International Military Cooperation of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Major General Yevgeny Ilyin, stated that the Zapad-2021 exercise would involve around 200,000 personnel.
The latter number is more likely the actual one. As stated, Zapad is not just a September exercise. ‘Zapad’ comprises a myriad of various military, civil, emergency, and national guard exercises. Even the Russian Ministry of Finance will be tested in its ability to provide the military with financial resources when IT and banking systems are down.
The main goal is to prepare the Russian Federation to go to war with NATO countries. To this end, in August the MoD held the Zashchita-2021 exercise around Arkhangelsk and Severodvinsk where they deployed a joint emergency group, which responded to an emergency situation (radiation hazard) at the Belomorsk naval base. The group comprised personnel from Rosatom, the MoD, Ministry of Emergency Situations, Sevmash (a shipbuilding company), Zvyozdochka (the ship repair company), and local government employees.
Prior to that, the 27th NBC Brigade was deployed to Kurchatov, where they “eliminated” the consequences of a simulated accident at the Kursk nuclear power plant. A similar exercise of this nature was held in 2017. Secondly, also in preparation for ‘Zapad,’ in July the Russian National Guard held a comprehensive operational and strategic exercise called ‘Zaslon-2021.’ In September, the RNG could be used as a third-echelon force to be deployed into occupied territories after the main combat forces have moved on. This, of course, continues the operational styles of the NKVD and KGB.
Ready to fight NATO
The inbound movement of training troops into Belarus started occurring as early as July 21. At that time, Russian elements from the 2nd Motor Rifle and 4th Tank Divisions started to arrive at 230th Combined Arms and Brestsky Training Ranges in Belarus. These two units are perhaps the most combat-ready and best-equipped ground force units within the Russian Land Forces. Together, they form the core of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army, which altogether fields some 500 main battle tanks and has an estimated 30,000 soldiers.
Within a couple of weeks, Russia deployed logistics support, command and control elements, and three battalion tactical groups into Belarus. These were later joined by sizable Belarusian detachments from mechanized formations, but also that of rear support. In late August, Russia also deployed Mi-8, Mi-28, and Ka-52 helicopters to the Baranovichi Airbase to support their Belarusian counterparts with aviation capabilities.
Every active phase of the strategic exercise, such as Zapad, is divided into two distinctive phases. In the first one, defensive operations are conducted, which means that Russia, at least officially, never starts a war first. It is expected that this part of Zapad will be undertaken in Belarus.
The second phase, which includes going from defensive operations into the offensive, will be primarily undertaken in Mulino. Units currently deployed there started arriving right when Russian units began to arrive in Belarus. Mulino now hosts combat elements of the 20th Combined Arms Army, 90th Tank Division, and 27th Motor Rifle Brigade.
More pre-Zapad exercises
However, to ready all the necessary forces for the massive exercise that is Zapad, they must first undergo a series of smaller exercises and drills. In late August, a logistics exercise was undertaken which involved numerous units from Belarus and Russia. The goal was to move additional equipment from storage bases in mainland Russia into Kaliningrad, conduct river crossing drills, provide additional oil and lubricants into front-line units or prepare engineering units to conduct evacuation of damaged equipment from the battlefield. Although these are rather expected elements of military rear-support, Belarus, as part of the logistics preparations, set up a field hospital at the 230th Combined Arms Training Range and ensured its field bakeries have enough flour to provide troops with bread.
Another stage of Zapad preparations took place between 28 August and 2 September when the communications exercise started. The main goal is to establish secure communication networks between field units and headquarters. The network will feed information from the Kaliningrad Oblast, Belarus, Western, Northern and Southern Russia to the Joint Strategic Command West, which manages Zapad. At the same time, information will be fed into the National Defense Management Center, which is the supreme command and control center of the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Russian Armed Forces. Any decisions about nuclear strikes will be made there. To compare, during Vostok-2018 more than 150 communication nodes were established to ensure continuous command and control of troops and units.
Additional preparations will include air and air defense drills, including dispersal exercises and electronic warfare. By 10 September all units will be in place ready to fight NATO.
Conclusion
Zapad-2021 has the chance to be the largest exercise conducted by Russia in recent years. The number of troops and units mobilized in Russia and Belarus already suggests it will surpass the 2017 iteration of the exercise. The Russian Federation and its ally Belarus will practice operations against NATO countries, but the likelihood of war is small. Nevertheless, closely observing Zapad will allow outside observers to gain some insight into the Russian military psyche. It will also provide answers to questions of how Russia plans to go to war, how quickly, and what capabilities it seeks to use.
