- Hubert Walas
More than a week has passed since Hamas launched its biggest attack on Israel in decades. Tel Aviv quickly repelled the militant incursion and vowed a firm response. In the space of a few days, thousands of bombs have fallen on Gaza, creating a humanitarian catastrophe. At the same time, final preparations are underway for a ground offensive that, as retired US General "Frank" McKenzie put it, will be a bloodbath for all. What might an Israeli offensive look like?
"We must admit honestly, painfully and with our heads bowed - we, the leaders and the security establishment, have failed to maintain the security of our citizens," - Becalel Smotrich, a key partner in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, told a press conference.
By the time of writing this report, more than 1,300 Israeli citizens had been confirmed dead.
The Israel Defense Forces quickly repelled the attack, which we detailed in our first report, and responded with an air campaign aimed at destroying all Hamas-related sites in Gaza. But because the group uses civilian infrastructure for its operations, everything has become a de facto target. Here you can see Hamas launching a rocket attack from densely populated settlements.
In six days, Israel dropped 6,000 bombs on Gaza. By comparison, the Americans have dropped between 2,000 and 5,000 bombs during their campaign against ISIS. Per month. As a result, the city quickly began to resemble the one the Russians razed to the ground - Mariupol. Gaza's hospitals are rapidly filling up. Official reports alone speak of 2,750 Palestinians killed and nearly 10,000 wounded.
The IDF, meanwhile, reports that more than 6,000 rockets have been fired from Gaza into northern, central and southern Israel since the surprise Hamas attack on 7 October. Most were shot down by air defences, but many fell on civilian targets.
At the same time, Tel Aviv has imposed a total blockade on the Gaza Strip, including the supply of electricity and water. Israel provides 50% of Gaza's electricity demand. The newest reports say that on Monday morning, the Rafah border crossing with Egypt was opened. Also, a closed military zone of almost 1,000 square kilometres has also been imposed.
In this zone, a massive build-up of troops and equipment has begun for the final crackdown on Hamas promised by the Israeli government. Israel has called up 360,000 reservists, many of whom have returned from abroad. It is the largest call-up in 40 years since the 1982 war with Lebanon. Thousands of tonnes of heavy equipment, including Merkava tanks, have also begun to be enmassed.
Furthermore, on Friday, 13 October, the Israeli command ordered the evacuation of all civilians from Gaza City to the south. Tel Aviv gave them 24 hours to do so. We are talking about more than a million people - almost half the population of the Gaza Strip. They were supposed to move to the south by one of two roads.
"The Hamas terrorist organisation has launched a war against the State of Israel, and Gaza City is an area where hostilities are taking place," an IDF statement said.
Doctors Without Borders has called Israel's 24-hour call for evacuation from Gaza "outrageous". The WHO said it was a death sentence for people who are connected to life support equipment.
On Monday, 72 hours after the evacuation order was given, the ground offensive had not yet begun. The latest reports are that only half of the population, some 600,000, have moved south. Perhaps Tel Aviv is giving the rest some time. But it will not wait long.
It is clear that the Israeli objective is a ground operation in Gaza. Going block by block, apartment by apartment, eliminating all Hamas representatives. Urban operations are the most difficult of all, especially against an enemy like Hamas. The streets of Gaza will flow with the blood of both sides and given that thousands of civilians will remain in the north, they will flow with the blood of civilians above all.
All the more so as the Israelis report that Hamas is blocking the evacuation. "We are seeing active efforts by Hamas to block and prevent the population from moving south. Hamas wants to show the world that it has casualties and dead," IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari told a press conference. "We continue to urge the residents of Gaza City to move south... Hamas wants to use you as human shields. We are doing this for your personal safety," Hagari added. "We intend to attack Gaza in the near future... very broadly," he concluded.
Hamas, on the other hand, claims that the Israeli Air Force is bombing evacuation corridors.
But what might an offensive, which the Israeli Defence Forces are openly preparing for, look like?
Since Israel's withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, there have been three major ground operations. Israel's deepest incursion into Gaza in the last 18 years was Operation Cast Lead. During the 18-day operation, five brigade-sized formations entered Gaza and divided the Strip into three sectors. Israeli forces operated deep into the cities, but did not occupy the entire territory. The ground operation was preceded by massive bombardment. The same is taking place now.
"This time, the ground campaign will almost certainly last longer than 18 days and be much more intense, going deeper into cities and underground to the point of destroying Hamas military strongholds and other armed groups such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad." - says Anshel Pfeffer, an Israeli analyst.
But which way can Israel go on the offensive?
Geography limits the options, so the Israel Defence Forces tend to use the same approach routes.
The areas around the Erez crossing in the far north of the Gaza Strip, around Bureij south of Gaza City, and east of Khan Yunis are suitable for tank entry. The terrain there is easily traversable due to the predominance of agricultural fields. Another access point is the Philadelphi Route near Rafah in the far south.
Hamas and other factions in Gaza are aware that these are routes that can be used by Israeli forces and it is likely that this is where we will see the first line of defence. These areas have seen heavy fighting in the past.
As Israel advances, the sandy countryside is turning into urban areas and conditions are becoming more complex. Tall apartment blocks in places like Jabaliya and Beit Lahia overlook the northern approaches to Gaza City, while the main north-south road borders industrial areas that Hamas has used for defence in the past.
The area in central Gaza and east of Khan Yunis is more open, but the villages and taller buildings along the access roads have always provided cover for Hamas.
Although the IDF has experience of fighting in the city, it must be remembered that it will face prepared positions by Hamas, whose fighters have a better familiarity of their own urban area. There are also reports of an extensive system of underground tunnels that Hamas has prepared for such an eventuality.
"In order to clear buildings, basements and the extensive network of tunnels, they will have to dismount their infantry and essentially fight soldier-on-soldier and block-by-block in the built-up areas" - says Mick Mulroy, a former senior Pentagon official.
What’s more, Hamas probably has a large stockpile of Kornet anti-tank missiles. These have been used effectively against Israeli Merkava tanks, for example by Hezbollah in Lebanon. The group has also developed drones capable of dropping payloads, similar to those used in Ukraine. Civilian drones are also likely to provide Hamas with local reconnaissance - something the group has never had.
“I think they’re going to go back in, heavy, and it’s going to be a bloodbath for everybody" - Kenneth "Frank" McKenzie Jr, a retired Marine general who served as head of US Central Command until last year, told the Washington Post. He also predicts that the Israelis will get bogged down in the messy unpredictability of urban warfare.
Israel has the capacity to occupy Gaza in its entirety, but this would undoubtedly be costly. The total occupation would certainly be a daunting challenge, which is why Israel's ambassador to the UN has stressed that Israel has no intention of occupying Gaza.
Still, in line with the objective of Operation Swords of Iron announced by President Netanyahu, every member of Hamas is to be dead, which suggests that Tel Aviv's actions will be unprecedented.
At the local level, everyone is preparing for the offensive, but tensions are also rising in the region. Nothing happens in a vacuum.
There have been mass rallies in major cities across the Middle East in support of the Palestinians and condemnation of Israel. Here we see Morocco. Turkey. Iraq. Iran. Demonstrations have also taken place in many cities in the West.
Yet the most immediate threat hangs over Israel from the north, threatening to draw Lebanese Hezbollah into the fighting.
Naim Al-Kassem, Hezbollah's deputy secretary-general, said that Hezbollah is closely monitoring Israel's actions and is fully prepared. He stressed that Hezbollah knows its role and responsibilities and will decide whether to act. "Hezbollah is fully prepared for any scenario," he said.
For the time being, there has been a limited exchange of fire near the Lebanese-Israeli border. An IDF spokesman said Hezbollah had some 130,000 rockets aimed at Israeli civilians. Even a system as advanced as the Iron Dome cannot shoot down all the rockets in a saturation attack. Overall, Hezbollah has much greater military capabilities than Hamas.
Far more serious in its consequences for the region, however, would be the direct involvement of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the conflict. The exchange of messages between Tehran and Tel Aviv is escalating.
During a visit to Beirut, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian warned that the war could spread if the Israeli bombardment of Gaza continues. Here we see Abdollahian meeting with Hamas chief Haniyeh in Qatar.
In contrast, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant described the Hamas attack: "Everything is directed from Iran. The permission is given by Iran. The money is provided by Iran, and the ideas are formed in Iran".
The US Navy stationed near Gaza is there mainly because of the Iranian threat, not to help Israel fight Hamas.
It should also be mentioned that in light of the Hamas offensive and Israel's response to it, a wave of discussion is sweeping the world about the morality of both sides. The perspective taken is often black and white.
Palestinian supporters, not to mention Hamas ones, see Israel's long-standing oppressive actions against Palestinians in Gaza or the West Bank as the main cause. The anti-Palestinian narrative has only intensified with the formation of Benjamin Netanyahu's new government.
The world is flooded with images of the consequences of Israeli bombings. We all see the death and disability of children and their mothers. Or the blockade that led to a lack of access to basic necessities or medicine.
This is also being felt at the diplomatic level. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi told US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken: "The Israeli response goes beyond the right of self-defence and has turned into collective punishment for 2 million people in Gaza.”
The other side - Israel - points to its own right to defend itself. In addition, the purely criminal practices of Hamas are transparent - the execution of Israeli civilians, but indirectly also of their own. The group's fighters de facto hide behind the backs of women and children in Gaza's densely populated neighbourhoods.
Many also question the logic of Hamas's actions, to which it had to be clear that Tel Aviv would respond with full force. And that will mean more bombing and probably a ground offensive. However, Israel and many analysts acknowledge that this rationality is not to be found at the level of the individual. For Hamas fighters, death in a holy war at the hands of Israel is the highest form of sacrifice, and it does not matter whether that sacrifice is made by the fighters themselves or by the Palestinian civilians for whose cause Hamas claims to be fighting. In contrast, the group's leadership pursues its own agenda, campaigning from cosy offices in Qatar. Hamas itself also receives support from various corners of the globe, where its actions are presented as legitimate.
The case becomes even more complex as the question of Palestinian independence has been given an increasingly warm reception in the West over the past few years. Latest polls suggest that among young Democrats in the United States for example, sympathy for Palestine used to be higher than for Israel. However, as a result of Hamas's atrocities, Israel's retaliatory actions are gaining legitimacy that they have gradually lost. The indiscriminate slaughter of concertgoers or civilians hiding in their homes has no justification and is, in essence, no different from the Russian genocide in Bucha.
Hence, we see attempts by some Palestinians to separate the activities of Hamas and Palestine as a state. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who is not recognised by Hamas, said: "The actions of Hamas do not represent the Palestinians". The Israelis also try to distinguish between the two environments in their communications, claiming that their offensive is targeting Hamas and not the Palestinians.
But given that Hamas' indoctrination of the youngest Palestinians has been going on for years, and that Gaza itself is cut off from the world, have they had, and do they have, the opportunity to choose a different path?
We operate in shades of grey. Violence breeds violence. For now, we are seeing it at a local level, but when things get out of hand, there is a non-zero probability that we will see a cascade of violent events at a regional and even global level.
Sources:
https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-friday-prayers-mideast-8474ed730294a1c2299bdaef58a17142
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/10/israel-hamas-war-what-an-israeli-ground-offensive-in-gaza-could-look-like
https://www.haaretz.com/error?404&path=/israel-news/2023-10-15/ty-article/.premium/what-will-israels-ground-offensive-in-gaza-against-hamas-look-like/0000018b-342b-d051-a1cb-3dfbe35e0000
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/10/15/israel-gaza-urban-warfare-bloodbath/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67084141
