- Hubert Walas
Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Day 9 The war continues. Ukraine defends itself, strikes back, while the Russian economy falls into an abyss not seen in decades.
Let's start with the operational situation. After two consecutive days of the war, the dynamics of the events seem to have slowed down somewhat. Russia has not made significant progress for a long time. The worst situation is on the southern front, where the fortress of Mariupol, the last link Moscow needs to have a land connection with Crimea, is still defended. The nearby Volnovakha is also important; the Ukrainians are also fiercely defending themselves there. The only major city occupied by the Russians remains Kherson, although there is expected to be some fighting in the city. The offensive on Nikolaev and Voznesensk was repulsed. Kharkiv continues to defend itself, though it still threatens encirclement. It seems that the best situation is on the northern front. Not only did the Russian offensive stop there, but the Ukrainians launched a counteroffensive near Makarov and inflicted heavy losses on the Russians. However, the Russians are transferring new reserves to this region. Chernihiv is also bravely defended. Therefore, as the Ukrainian analyst Butusov notes, the key issue now is the south, and in particular the battles for Mariupol, Voznesensk, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia and the nearby power plant there.
Why are the Russians better off in the south than in the north? It seems that there may be several reasons. First, it is drier in the south, almost all pictures of Russian vehicles and tanks bogged down in mud are from the north. Second - in the north, the Ukrainians are better supported by NATO reconnaissance. The alliance has excellent airborne and satellite radio-electronic intelligence over Ukraine and is relaying to the Ukrainians where Russian air defense radars are not working and that's where the Ukrainians are directing TB2s, aviation, artillery. This also explains the recordings of Ukrainian attacks on BUK or Tor missile systems. This reconnaissance may be better in the north, where it is closer to NATO borders. Third, in the south the Russians have shorter lines of communication from Crimea and it was easier for them to maintain supplies, whereas in the north these lines are constantly interrupted by Ukrainian light infantry. Finally, there are increasing indications that the Russians had a well-developed plan to attack from the south from Crimea and in the Kharkiv direction, while it may have been enriched at the last minute by an attack on Kyiv. Not only did this dilute the troops prepared for the southern attack, but the troops attacking Kyiv are totally unprepared and act without a plan, which is being meticulously exploited by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Russians are venting their frustration and continuing to commit war crimes by shelling residential neighborhoods with artillery, airstrikes or cluster bombs.
What are the prospects for the next days of fighting? The Russians still have the operational advantage, taking Mariupol and closing the southern direction will make many things easier. On the other hand, every day the Ukrainians are conscripting new recruits into the army, perhaps they still have reserves of contract troops. The Russians, on the other hand, according to American intelligence, have already incorporated 92% of their prepared forces into combat. The Russian reserves are shrinking.
In addition, all the time there is an ongoing topic of the "international legion", and according to recent reports, this is currently estimated at 16 thousand soldiers! 16tys is a lot and we have to take into account that the information comes from the Ukrainian side. Nevertheless, in many western countries we can hear voices of soldiers or ex-soldiers: "Ukraine, stand strong, we’re coming".
Sabotage and diversionary actions, on the other hand, are ongoing in Belarus, specifically against Belarusian railroads, and are aimed at stopping or delaying Russian deliveries to the Ukrainian border.
It is also impossible not to raise the issue of morale again. If the Ukrainian army had not withstood the first blow and dispersed, as the Russians in a way hoped, a new puppet president would have been sworn in today in Kyiv, and the security situation in the whole of Europe would have been radically different. Despite the fact that it was mainly in the first 2/3 of the first days that the Russians broke into the country hard, the Ukrainians held out and gave the entire West a compelling argument to impose draconian sanctions and begin more arms deliveries. On the other hand, young Russian conscripts see Ukraine's resistance and are unwilling to die for Russia. More and more video footage confirms the claims that the vehicles are being deliberately diverted into the mud, or fuel is being burned to have a reason to surrender. Here they themselves admit that they were sent to Ukraine as cannon fodder. They have no water or food, they sleep in the open air, no one is interested in them. They are exhausted and freezing cold.
In Russia, Facebook, youtube, and Twitter are being blocked, the few liberal media are being shut down, and by spreading "false" information about the war one can be charged with up to 15 years in prison. It is possible that martial law will be imposed within days. The increased censorship is another sign that the morale of the Russian military is at rock bottom, and things on the front lines are bad.
While Ukraine believes in victory. According to a recent poll, 90% of Ukrainians believe in repelling the attack, 98% support the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and 93% support President Zelensky. This is the result of Kyiv's great information warfare, but without the tough resistance of the Ukrainian soldier, this would not have been possible.
All this, by the way, may be about something even greater, which Moscow's geopolitical plans did not take into account when calculating the cost of war. I am referring here to the power of free western people combined with the power of mass media. Seeing what the Russians are doing, every Westerner had a natural need to alert the world. This in combination with the mass media created a powerful information wave and thus pressure not only on western governments but also on companies providing services in Russia - after all, these images were seen not only by presidents and ministers but also board members, directors, executives and their wives and children. It is therefore highly probable that they, too, when deciding to withdraw their business from Russia, did not look at the balance of profits and losses, but were guided by emotions. All this led to draconian sanctions and general world condemnation. In a word, everyone in the West with a phone in hand became a soldier of the infosphere serving the Ukrainian cause.
However, an example of how well the Ukrainians control the information space on the frontline is the fact that we see only the images that the Ukrainians serve us. On the internet, there are practically only videos of light Ukrainian infantry, with NLAW or Javelins, and we don't see heavy Ukrainian divisions. However, as Marek Meissner notes on Twitter - they are there and putting up a tough resistance. Russians are also the victims of this message, who, trusting in the lack of Ukrainian tanks or anti-aircraft defense, are falling prey to well-prepared Ukrainian defenses. This shows how important message control is on the modern battlefield.
We get further arguments proving the chaos of Russian logistics. The now-famous convoy of several kilometers stopped near Kyiv. The reason is a destroyed bridge, attacks by Ukrainian infantry, but perhaps most of all logistical problems. Expert Trent Telenko pointed out that footage of abandoned Russian trucks with cracked tires suggests that they were not properly maintained. They probably stood in one place for months, sunlight fell on the tires all the time from one side and the tires on the other side rotted. There are claims that by the third day at the front Russian soldiers were running out of food, fuel, and ammunition.
This is all confirmed by comments made by Americans, quoted by journalist Jack Detsch. Citing a source in the Defense Ministry, he writes that Ukraine is "definitely" effectively defending itself against Russian attacks, and the main Russian successes are in the south. Russia has been caught off guard by military resistance and logistical problems. The Americans are NOT seeing signs that would suggest the involvement of Belarussian forces - although such information has emerged in recent days. And, perhaps most importantly, Ukraine still has the "vast majority" of its aviation, including planes, drones, and helicopters. This is really great news, if true.
The overall "off the record" message coming from the U.S. and NATO about the Russian operation, despite a year of preparation, is "a complete failure." The breakingdefence portal citing Russian sources states that "There was no tactical plan. We were supposed to deal with resistance if it appeared, although the expectation was that there would be none and we would take these cities from one to a maximum of four days."
Other sources close to the Kremlin are quoted by journalist Yulia Ioffe - "everyone is stunned; you can't leave now, and if you do, it's straight to prison". Also of interest are reports from The Times that an "anti-war lobby" in Russia's FSB tipped off the ukrainian intel to thwart three assassination attempts against Zelensky last week. There are tentative signals from Russia that the war must be ended - such as the head of Lukoil
Sanctions are beginning to take effect, although it must be said that their strength is partially cushioned by rising global prices for oil and gas, which Russia continues to export to the EU and the world.
The question remains whether the sale of hydrocarbons alone can cover the cataclysm that the Russian economy is now experiencing. The Moscow stock market fails to open for the fifth day in a row. Fitch and Moodys have changed the rating of the Russian economy to a "junk" quote. MSCI reports that Russia is now "uninvestable." A car factory in Togliatti, owned by Renault-Nissan, is closing. 35k people will lose their jobs there. IKEA's exit means another 15,000 people out of work. Software providers Microsoft and Oracle have already announced their exit from Russia. This will be followed by hardware manufacturers - AMD and Intel. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. The list of large companies ending their operations in Russia grows daily.
On top of that, an interesting analysis on Twitter about sanctions on the Russian aviation sector was prepared by user Jan Nedvidek. In short, Russia has 3 weeks before its passenger aviation largely stops functioning. This is affected not only by the skies over Europe closed to Russia, but also by the issue of insurance, lack of spare parts, and aircraft maintenance.
Problems also await the Russian defense program, the breakingdefence website also reports. Many Ukrainians have long been associated with the Russian defense sector for years. Now some of them report that Russia has no more Kalibr missiles in strategic reserve. But the problems don't end there. Guidance systems and other critical components consist of 60 percent foreign-imported components. All these are sanctioned, so it's unclear how Russia will produce the new arsenal. The Kalibr is just the beginning, the KBM factory in Tule is physically unable to fill orders even for infantry weapons and ammunition. In a way, all this fits in with earlier Ukrainian intelligence reports about Russian shortages of supplies and raw materials.
But perhaps the biggest blow to the Russians, and one that is little talked about in the media, is the halting of sea deliveries by the world's two largest shipowners, Maersk and MSC. Maritime trade is the most important branch of world commerce, and the moment the two monopolists stop entering Russian ports, so they will effectively halt almost any exports and imports from Russia.
On the front, the war is still fierce and the Russians have the upper hand in many areas, while civilians are dying in murderous shellings. But it is impossible not to see the broader picture of the situation. And this one shows the panic of the Kremlin and the free fall of the Russian economy, which by its scale may even resemble the Yeltsin times.
