- Tomasz Rydelek
US & UK Strike Yemen.
On January 12, at 2:30 in the morning, four US Navy ships began firing Tomahawk cruise missiles. Their target was Yemeni territory. The missiles were to hit key military bases, supply depots, air defense positions and communications centers belonging to Houthi militants. This was in response to Houthi attacks on merchant ships - causing a de facto partial blockade of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, through which some 12% of world trade passes.
In parallel, the aerial attack was underway. US F-18 fighter jets, operating from the aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower, came into play. Also taking part in the operation were four British Eurofighter Typhoon fighters, which had taken off from a base in Cyprus a few hours earlier.
A total of about 70 targets, located in 28 different sites in northern Yemen, were attacked that night. Shortly thereafter, the White House released a special statement from President Biden. The airstrikes were a message to the Houthis that the United States
and its partners will not tolerate attacks that threaten freedom of navigation on one of the world's most important trade routes. The U.S. president ended his statement with a threat ofmore attacks - in case the Houthis fail to understand or ignore his message.
How did it happen that in less than two months, the Houthis de facto blocked a key maritimeartery linking Europe and Asia? What role does Iran play in Houthi activities? And, mostimportantly, will the recent U.S. attack on Yemen put an end to Houthi attacks or only lead to further escalation?
Road to war
On the morning of October 7, 2023, Hamas militants crossed the fence separating the Gaza Strip from Israel. In the following hours, they attacked a kibbutz and a music festival taking place nearby. More than 1,100 people were killed and another 3,000 wounded at the hands of Hamas that day. At the same time, 247 people were abducted deep into the Gaza Strip.
It was not only the largest attack in Hamas history, but also the bloodiest day in the history of the modern state of Israel. The unprecedented scale of the attack by Hamas, also prompted an unprecedented response from Israel.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thundered: "this is war." Later that day, the Israeli air force began strikes on the Gaza Strip. 300,000 Israeli reservists were called up under arms, and the General Staff began preparations to enter the Palestinian enclave.
But by the time the first Israeli soldiers entered Gaza, the war between Hamas and Israel had evolved into a broader regional confrontation between - on the one hand - America and Israel - and on the other - Iran and the so-called Axis of Resistance.
War in Yemen. Is peace on the horizon?
The Axis of Resistance is a network of pro-Iranian militias spread throughout the Middle East, from Lebanon to Syria and Iraq to Yemen.
Hamas is also considered one of the members of the Axis of Resistance. Therefore, when the fighting between Hamas and Israel began, all members of the Axis of Resistance sided with Hamas in solidarity and began threatening attacks on American and Israeli targets in the region. One such grouping was Yemen's Houthi Movement.
Followers of Allah
The Houthi movement, also known as Ansar Allah (i.e., Followers of Allah), controls the northern part of Yemen, including the country's capital, Sa'ana.
We covered the genesis of the Houthi Movement comprehensively back in 2022, and refer to that material for more detailed information. As an introduction to the topic, however, it should be said that the roots of the Houthis go back to the 1990s and an organisation called the Believing Youth. Initially it focused exclusively on religious activities, but soon took on the characteristics of a political movement, which brought it into conflict with President Saleh. Between 2004 and 2010, government troops carried out against the Houthis, as many as six major offensives. However, they failed to smash the rebel forces, which were hiding in the mountains of northern Yemen.
In late 2011, in a wave of Arab Spring protests, President Saleh was ousted, and the new authorities promised the Houthis significant concessions and a seat in the new government. However, these promises were never fulfilled. As a result, in 2014, the Houthis decided to overthrow the government and seize power by force. Within four months, the Houthis swept through Yemen like a steamroller, seizing the capital Sa'ana, Taiz, and entered Aden, the former capital of South Yemen.
Just when it seemed that Aden would fall and the Houthis would take control of the country, Saudi Arabia joined the fray, launching a military intervention in Yemen in March 2015. The Saudis pushed the Houthis out of Aden, but their intervention was ultimately a strategic failure. The Houthis kept the northern part of the country under their rule and, even more importantly, established very close contact with Tehran. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, began smuggling armaments into Yemen on a massive scale, including ballistic missiles and drones, which the Houthis soon began using to attack targets deep inside Saudi Arabia.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the heir to the Saudi throne and the mastermind behind the intervention in Yemen, has had to accept defeat. Back in 2022 the Saudis and Houthis signed a ceasefire and began peace talks. These are proceeding slowly, but are gradually bringing more de-escalation.
So when fighting broke out between Hamas and Israel, and the Americans began pulling reinforcements to the region, including two additional aircraft carriers, the Houthis were not bound by the fighting with the Saudis and found themselves in an ideal position to escalate.
As early as October 10, and thus 3 days after Hamas attacked Israel, Movement leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi threatened America with attacks if it supported an Israeli invasion of Gaza. It didn't take long for the Houthis to move from threats to action.
War at sea
On October 19, the US destroyer USS Carney, operating in Red Sea waters, shot down several cruise missiles and drones launched by the Houthis. They were heading toward the Israeli port of Eilat. In the following days, the Houthis continued their attacks. But, most of the missiles and drones were consistently shot down. In one case, however, on October 27, Houthi drones veered off target, passed Eilat and struck a neighbouring Egyptian city, killing six civilians.
The Houthis did not stop with attacks targeting Eilat, and set their sights on further escalation. On November 19, Houthi militants - using a helicopter - seized a ship called Galaxy Leader, which is owned by a company in which Israeli billionaire Abraham Ungar has a stake.
From then on, the Houthi conflict with America and Israel turned into a specific "naval war." Every few days, the Houthis attacked more merchant ships passing through the Red Sea. Both ballistic missiles, anti-ship missiles and drones were used in the attacks. In several cases, boarding was also attempted. Although the Houthis claimed that their targets were only ships with ties to Israeli capital, in practice the slightest connection to Israel was enough to fall victim to an attack. The Houthis' goal was clear - to blockade the Bab al Mandab Strait.
The stakes of this game are enormous. After all, it is estimated that about 12% of global trade and as much as 30% of global container transport passes through the Red Sea. The northern "gateway" to the Red Sea is the Suez Canal, while the Bab al Mandab Strait, located off Yemen, is the southern gateway.
The Bab al Mandab Strait is not as well-known as the Suez Canal, but has similar strategic importance. Its blockade means that ships heading from European ports to Asia can no longer use the Suez Canal and must choose the more expensive and about 10 days longer traditional route around Africa.
While the Houthis do not have an extensive navy, they do have a large stockpile of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles and drones. This, combined with the fact that northern Yemen lies right next to the Bab al Mandab Strait, made the Houthis an ideal candidate to blockade this key sea route.
In late November and early December, attacks from the Houthis were so numerous that major international shipowners such as Maersk, Evergreen and Hapag-Lloyd withdrew their ships from the Red Sea. In total, more than 2,000 ships were forced to take a circuitous route around Africa. If such a situation had continued longer, the economic consequences for the world economy would have been enormous. The Americans therefore decided to act.
Prosperity Guardian
On December 18, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin announced the launch of OperationProsperity Guardian. The operation was intended to put an end to further attacks by the Houthis and ensure the safety of merchant ships.
The Americans portrayed the "Prosperity Guardian" as an international coalition of more than 20 countries, but the real picture was somewhat different. Of all coalition members, only Britain and Greece placed one warship each under American command. France, Italy and Spain formally joined the Operation, but refused to place their ships under US command. Instead, the other coalition members limited themselves to exchanging intelligence or sending liaison officers.
Importantly, all the major Arab countries in the region refused to participate in Operation Prosperity Guardian: Saudi Arabia, Egypt or the United Arab Emirates. The only Arab participant in the coalition was the tiny Kingdom of Bahrain, where the US 5th Fleet is
stationed.
Shipowners welcomed the start of Operation Prosperity Guardian with moderate enthusiasm, and Maersk even announced a partial return to the Red Sea. However, the Houthis were already planning another provocation.
On New Year's Eve, the Houthis fired on a Maersk Hangzhou container ship and then tried to board it. The Americans, notified of the incident, sent helicopters to help, hoping that this would be enough to deter the Houthis. However, this did not happen. An exchange of fire ensued, during which the Americans sank three Houthi speedboats.
The New Year's Eve attack had serious consequences. Maersk again withdrew its ships from the Red Sea. Meanwhile, the Americans decided to issue an ultimatum to Houthi. On New Year's morning, President Biden met with his advisors. According to a Bloomberg report, it was decided at that time that - using unofficial communication channels - Washington would contact Tehran and ask the Iranians to de-escalate. If that didn't help, however, Biden instructed his advisors to prepare a list of potential targets and contact allies to verify which countries could take part in an attack on the Houthis.
The role of Tehran
Looking for ways to de-escalate through Tehran is understandable. Iran plays a key role in the Red Sea crisis. It is the one supplying the Houthis with drones and ballistic missiles that are later used to attack merchant ships. There is also circumstantial evidence to suggest that the Iranians have a direct influence on the selection of targets for these attacks. Indeed, there is a Behshad spy ship belonging to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Red Sea waters.
The Iranians, however, ignored the messages coming from the Americans. In response to a request for de-escalation, they distanced themselves from attacks on merchant ships and said they had no control over the Houthis' actions.
Diplomacy with Tehran has failed. Meanwhile, on January 9, the Houthis crossed another red line. On that day, they fired ballistic missiles and drones at US and British warships. This was the first time since the beginning of the crisis that the Houthis - instead of merchant ships - attacked a Western warship.
It didn't take long for Washington and London to respond. On the night of January 11-12, the Americans and British launched a series of attacks on more than 70 targets in northern Yemen, which we described at the beginning.
The scale of the attack may be impressive, but it appears that the Houthis' losses are relatively small. Indeed, just hours before the attack, information about the impending strike leaked to the Western press. The source of the leak was British politicians. Some suggest that this was a deliberate action, calculated to minimize enemy losses. According to this theory, the joint U.S.-British attack was intended primarily as a "signal," a "message" rather than a knockout blow. Regardless of whether this was really the case, as soon as information about the expected attacks was circulated, the Houthis sounded the alarm, evacuated some military bases and smaller arms depots.
Friday's attack on Yemen showed that the Americans are ready to respond with force to the Houthis' provocations. However, we do not know how the Houthis will understand the "American message"? Will they refrain from further provocations, or will they nonetheless decide to exchange blows with the Americans and the situation in the Red Sea continues to escalate?
The second round hangs in the air
For the time being the "escalation" option seems more likely. Shortly after the U.S.-British strike, the Houthis announced that they would continue their attacks, and additionally that all U.S. and British interests were considered legitimate targets for attack.
On the same day, the Houthis fired an anti-ship ballistic missile at a ship in the waters of the Gulf of Aden. However, the missile missed its target by about 400 meters. The ship attacked was the tanker Khalissa carrying Russian oil to Asia. This was all the more bizarre because until now the Houthis had shied away from attacking Russian vessels. There seems to have been an identification error here. The tanker attacked had previously belonged to a British company. The Houthi most likely concluded that the vessel was still owned by the British. This could mean that from now on the Houthis will deliberately hunt not only for ships affiliated with Israeli, but also British and American capital.
Thus, it remains in the short-term interest of the Houthis to continue attacks. After all, the provocations so far have shown that - thanks to Yemen's strategic location - even with relatively small forces at their disposal, the Houthis can paralyze the movement of ships through a crucial sea route. This allows the Houthis to present themselves as a much more significant player than they actually are. And so it strengthens the Houthis in the domestic arena, within Yemen itself, as well as internationally - especially in the context of the Saudi-led peace talks.
The Houthis' propensity to up the ante and further escalate is all the greater for the fact that - several years of Saudi bombardment - has led to a far-reaching decentralization of theirarmed forces. Unlike traditional armed forces, the Houthi do not have large bases or depots, the destruction of which has significantly depleted their strike potential. Instead, the Houthi have hundreds - if not thousands - of small outposts, warehouses hidden in the mountains, towns and villages of northern Yemen. As if that weren't enough, most Houthi missiles are fired from mobile platforms, making it even more difficult to locate the most valuable targets. To deprive the Houthis of further attacks on merchant ships, the Americans would have to conduct an intensive air campaign that would probably drag on for weeks. Such a campaign, however, would entail a huge image cost for America. Years of civil war and Saudi intervention have made Yemen the site of one of the worst humanitarian disasters the world has seen since the end of World War II. It is doubtful that Joe Biden, who is seeking presidential re-election this year, could afford such a politically and image risky move.
Especially since America's actions in the region lack the support of Arab allies. Saudi Arabia, which still has armed forces in Yemen is distancing itself from Washington. The Saudis have neither joined Operation Prosperity Guardian nor supported US-British air strikes. Riyadh wants to conclude a peace agreement with the Houthis as soon as possible and withdraw its Yemeni forces. The opinion of the "Arab street" is also important. If the Saudis were to support any action against the Houthis, it would be seen as sympathizing with Israel and the Gaza operation. For similar reasons, Egypt is also not joining the effort against the Houthis - despite the fact that Cairo's income from the Suez Canal has already fallen by about 40%.
The world's largest exporter also cares about global maritime freedom - China, but Beijing has condemned the U.S. campaign. This is for two reasons. First, the Houthis are bypassing Chinese ships - which is why some shipowners who continue to sail near Yemen, wanting to avoid attacks, have begun setting their AIS trackers - to the message "ALL CHINESE" . Beijing's second reason is similar to Riyadh's logic - any support for the U.S. campaign would deflect Chinese opposition to Israel's Gaza campaign. Nevertheless, in the long term, terrorizing freedom of trade in the Bab al-Mandab strait is certainly not to the Chinese's liking. And certainly, Tehran knows this.
In contrast, the American posture shows that Washington continues to operate from a position of sole global power. The Houthis' attacks are an offshoot of the U.S. position toward Israel and Gaza. The US have decided that they cannot afford such austere attacks on their allies, for this undermines the credibility of the US in their eyes, and at the same time, the sole hegemon status, the foundation of which is the perception of American power in the eyes of the entire world.
So it seems that the most likely scenario at the moment is a further exchange of blows by the Houthis and the combined forces of the US and UK. The day after the U.S.-British operation, the Americans launched another attack, this time on their own, destroying a radar position that the night before had not been completely neutralized. In the days that followed, the Houthis accused the Americans of more airstrikes - but the Americans claim they had nothing to do with it. As long as Israel continues its operation in Gaza, the pro-Iranian Axis of Resistance has perfect justification for further attacks on American and Israeli targets. The Americans, on the other hand, will continue to have trouble building a coalition, given the image and political costs this entails for their partners in the Middle East, or Europe.
All the while, there is a risk that fighting between Hamas and Israel will spill northward and lead to another war between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah. Attacks on American soldiers in Iraq and Syria also continue unabated. Iran itself is also becoming increasingly bold. On Thursday, January 11, off the coast of Oman, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hijacked the tanker St Nikolas, which had previously been seized by the Americans for carrying Iranian oil in April 2023.
In the most pessimistic scenario, the whole thing could be a prelude to an armed confrontation between Iran and Israel - with direct US involvement. Admittedly, both sides want to avoid such a confrontation. However, the fighting in the region, which has been going on for months, has turned the Middle East into a "minefield" that is increasingly difficult to navigate, and the risk of accidentally stepping on a mine is higher than ever.
