- Hubert Walas
Russian strategic thinking in the service of the nation.
Russian Poseidon tsunami-inducing torpedoes punishing godless Europe. Pushing the USA's descent into isolationism and the creation of a new UN. Or, finally, a nuclear attack on Poznan to establish a new architecture of governance in Europe and the world.
Are these the proposals of a madman? Not really - for the author of these theses is Sergei Karaganov, one of Russia's most widely read and respected analysts of international affairs and a longtime adviser to Vladimir Putin. At the beginning of 2024, Karaganov published a two-part article entitled "An Age of Wars," in which he presents his view of reality and offers some solutions.
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Let's start with a brief profile of the author of the analyzed content. Sergei Alexandrovich Karaganov is considered one of the most prominent political analysts in Russia. He was an advisor to both Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin. He is said to have close ties to key figures such as Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister.
The so-called -Karaganov Doctrine‖, which advocates Russia's stance as a defender of the ethnic rights of alleged Russians living in the -near abroad‖ or former Soviet republics, has become a cornerstone of Russia's foreign policy under Putin, especially since 2012, reflecting Karaganov's significant influence on the country's geopolitical strategy and the readership of its content. Recall that the ethnic motive provided the justification for Russia's first attack on Crimea and Donbass.
And so there are plenty of reasons to look at the world through the eyes of Karaganov, who is trying to convince not only the Russians who read him, but also the entire, one might say "non-Western" world, which he calls the "world majority".
Karaganov begins his two-part essay by quoting the Russian poet Alexander Blok:
“And black, earth’s blood
Promises us, inflating the veins,
Destroying all borders,
Unprecedented changes,
Unprecedented riots…”
The quote at the beginning is meant to outline the madness of modern times and the "age of wars" of the title. Karaganov, on the other hand, takes on the task of explaining the reasons for this state of affairs to the reader, and in the next section seeks solutions.
The world in a moment of chaos
The first reason is, as he puts it, "the depletion of the modern type of capitalism based primarily on profit-making, for which end it encourages the rampant consumption of goods and services that are less and less necessary for normal human life.” Humanity, in Karaganov's view, is following a harmful path that threatens even its own existence.
And in a moment, he adds a second reason, which, according to the analyst, is climate change, pollution, dwindling supplies of fresh water, arable land and other resources.
At this point, it's hard to deny that Karaganov is right, isn't it? Later, he comes to point out the reasons for this sleaze. He starts with himself, saying that the oligarchic-mafia system of the Russian state exploits citizens and wastes billions of cubic meters of natural resources, the profits of which could be used for climate protection instead of lining the pockets of more oligarchs.
Of course - this is a joke. The guilty party in Karaganov's eyes is, of course, the West.
According to the author, current policies against these phenomena are not necessarily aimed at actually mitigating them, but at consolidating the dominance of rich countries and societies, whereas the costs of transformation are to be passed on to poorer - non-Western - societies, despite the fact that the West is responsible for what he claims to be 70-80% of total consumption of all raw materials. As proof, he cites an article written 16 years ago by a French journalist for Le Monde, which does not cite sources for these bold statistics.
So Karaganov indirectly says: Look at the people in the West - not only are they rotten, rich and wallowing in luxury, but they make you pay for it. You? Who are ‘you’ here? The Global South, because this argument is aimed precisely at the societies of countries defined in this way.
That is why, as the Russian scholar goes on to write, the "disease of consumerism" is spreading from the West to the rest of the world, and is a source of growing hostility toward Russia and China, which implicitly guard the correct traditionalist order.
So it's an almost revolutionary diagnosis - they, the rich, are sitting in their castles of gold, exploiting their dominance and want to consolidate their gains under the guise of climate change. By contrast, Russia and China - two countries that resent this - are becoming targets.
“The awareness that the current development model leads nowhere but also the unwillingness and inability to abandon it are the main reason for the increasingly growing hostility towards Russia and, to a slightly lesser extent, towards China“ - says the author.
A word of commentary: The West, of course, has its problems, and among them are greenhouse gas emissions or sometimes unreflective consumerism. However, what we won't hear in Karaganov's text is any reflection on the state of affairs in Russia itself, which, in the text of the former Putin advisor, is by default an advocate of the healthy order.
We won't hear that Russia is one of the most polluted countries in the world, where environmental standards are notoriously violated, symbolized by cities such as Norilsk, Magnitogorsk or Chelyabinsk. Financial surpluses that could improve this dire situation are eaten up by the deeply corrupt oligarchic system of the Russian state. Karaganov conveniently does not elaborate on this.
But back to the text. The Russian analyst goes on, and states that the West needs an adversary to distract the public from these "unaddressed problems”.
Russia - a bastion of traditionalism
This adversary, defender of the planet and bastion of traditionalism, is of course Russia. And here is the first piece of benevolent advice, which the text is full of, especially in the second part. For Karaganov mentions that Europeans suffering from historical amnesia and intellectual degradation must remember that in case of war the Russians will simply kill them all. Fortunately, he adds in a moment: "God forbid” that this should happen. What a relief.
Karaganov then goes on to reflect on the growing phenomenon of social inequality, blaming it, among other things, on the collapse of the USSR.
Again, we can agree. During the Soviet era, everyone, equally owned nothing. What he again fails to mention is that today in Russia there is a systematic transfer of capital from society to a narrow oligarchic elite. The process itself is overseen by the Russian regime to be carried out smoothly.
“Democracy is one of the tools with which oligarchic elites, holding power and wealth, govern complex societies. This is why authoritarian and even totalitarian tendencies are on the rise in the West, despite all the screaming about the protection of democracy, but not just there.” - Karaganov notes.
Quite seriously - Karaganov here very accurately describes the Russian system, of course, by accident. Democracy is just a cover and a tool for the Russian elite to artificially legimitate authoritarian rule. It is a theater in which the whole society participates.
After a longer argument, the author derives the third reason, which is an extension of the first argument: "the degradation of man and society," again - mainly in the rich West.
“They are not only promoting but imposing anti-human or post-human ideologies, values, and patterns of behavior that reject the natural foundations of human morality and almost all basic human values.”
Humanity lacks, according to Karaganov, two components that have always pushed it forward: "hunger and the fear of violent death."
After that comes, the fourth reason of Karaganov: rising global tensions. And again here we can agree with him.
Here the author goes one level lower and lists the reasons for these growing tensions, of which he gives no less than eleven. We won't go into each one of them, those interested are referred to the article. Overall, it's a mix of:
- Actual strategic mistakes: such as American involvement in unnecessary wars;
- Wishful thinking: in the form of claims that the Russians have broken Europe's 500-year military dominance over them, despite the fact that the current trend of Russian military degradation shows the exact opposite to be true.
- Or Outright threats: such as warnings that nuclear war is not being taken seriously enough.
The general premise of the text as Karaganov himself writes, is:
“A long-term but urgent task is to promote the peaceful retreat of the West from its former hegemonic positions.” - In which positions, Karaganov fails to note, Russia would enter - with its way of managing and treating societies.
In the final section of the first part of the text, the author dissects military technology and the uncontrolled arms race, including in the field of hypersonic weapons, where, according to Karaganov, "we - that is, the Russians and the Chinese - are leading," as he points out, "thanks to the help of God and our designers."
Karaganov concludes part one with a preview of part two:
“Everything is in our hands, but we must realize how deep, severe, and unprecedented the current challenges are, and live up to them not only by responding, but also by staying one step ahead. I repeat: Russia needs a new foreign policy, new priorities for its internal development, and new priorities for society, for every responsible citizen of this country and the world. I will talk about this in the next article.”
The end of the West, the beginning of the East
Karaganov made his fans wait nearly two months for the second part. However, it is a "meaty" text, to say the least.
Without a word of introduction, the author sketches the foreign policy of the Russian Federation, which, in his opinion, should be based on the concept of the "Russian fortress". Thus, the main task should be to create internal self-sufficiency and to cooperate only with selected countries from what he calls the "world majority", the most important of which are friendly countries, namely Belarus, China, Mongolia, the BRICS countries and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
“Interdependence, previously overestimated as a source of peace, is now largely dangerous”, he admits.
In Karaganov's eyes, paradoxically, Russia should avoid conflicts, and he appreciates the Kremlin's lack of involvement in the Azeri-Armenian and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts. But, he notes, "we should not by any means repeat the Ukrainian failure, permitting anti-Russian elites to take power in neighboring countries or allowing those countries to be destabilized from outside. Kazakhstan is of greatest concern in this regard”
The Americans, on the other hand, are expected to face more intense attacks on their overseas bases, which attacks the author believes Russia should support.
Finally, Karaganov calls for an Asian turn for Russia, not only in the form of cooperation with China or India, but also internally.
“To continue its only partially successful Turn to the East via the Far East, Russia needs a new comprehensive national Siberian strategy, which would call for going forward, but also “back” to the romantic period of the Trans-Urals’ development.”
Russia must be, as he puts it, "Siberianized," steadily moving its spiritual, political, and economic center beyond the Urals to all of Siberia. The Northern Sea Route, the Northern Silk Road, or the North-South routes should be developed as a priority.
As historical evidence, Karaganov recalls Alexander Nevsky, the Russian protoplast who received his yarl from the Mongolian Batu Khan. And another Khan, Kublai, whom Nevsky is said to have met on his trail, later became the ruler of China in the Yuan Dynasty - which is supposed to be proof that the destiny of Russia and China is "much deeper than is commonly believed". Karaganov reluctantly admits that Nevsky was a servant of the Khan, but at the same time cleverly "used" the Mongols to defend his lands against "enemies in the West" by defending the "spirit of Russia”.
This is a clever bit of historical manipulation - the Mongols may have been the rulers of Moscovites, but it was Nevsky and the Russian founders who cunningly used them to defend themselves against the West. So the mythical struggle to protect oneself from Western societies with the help of the Mongol/Chinese has been going on now for 800 years.
The Russian regrets to admit that it would have been good to abandon the Western, European odyssey a century earlier, because today little remains of it except "plenty of rubbish seeps," although he reminds us that without it Russia would not have become a great nation with the best literature.
Further Karaganov again returns to the theme of building ties with the "World Majority," believes the West will collapse on its own, and new governing bodies should be formed based on the BRICS+, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Arab League, African Union, ASEAN and Mercosur formats.
“If Russia is a civilization of civilizations, then why not start building an organization of organizations with our friends and partners—a prototype of the future UN?” - Karaganov asks rhetorically.
In this arrangement, the alliance with China is crucial for Karaganov, the two countries complement each other, and the coalition of Moscow and Beijing should be a determining factor in shaping the new world system.
However, the author subcutaneously fear Chinese dominance and hope to balance Beijing with the participation of countries such as Turkey, Iran, India, Pakistan, or the ASEAN group. This would serve as a security buffer if the "Mongolian gene," i.e., the expansionist gene, ever awakens in the Chinese. Although the author can't help thinking that these revisionist genes unite the two countries because, as he writes, both Russia and China are essentially heirs to the empire of Genghis Khan.
The third apex of foreign policy, which Karaganov calls the so-called Primakov Triangle, is to be India - as a source of technology, a large domestic market, and human power, which, interestingly, could be involved in the development of Siberia.
Karaganov also calls for supporting, as he puts it, "U.S.’s ongoing long-term withdrawal into neo-isolationism, quite natural for it, at a new global level". In other words, the Russian wants to see the Americans abandon their previous paradigm of global presence. Europe, on the other hand, Karaganov sees as a place that has lost its soul - its Christian and Enlightenment soul, from which Russia should separate itself.
With a wall - literally. In Karaganov's vision, this wall would run across the Dnieper River in the western part of Ukraine, while the eastern and southern parts of the country, as well as the Dnieper basin, would belong to Russia. The remaining state dwarf would be, in Karaganov's idealistic projection, essentially a demilitarized buffer zone with Russian bases.
As Karaganov writes: "a place to live for those residents of present-day Ukraine who do not want be citizens of Russia and live by Russian laws.”. In other words, a reserve. The fencing wall, according to the author, would resemble the one Trump has started along the border with Mexico.
The nuclear answer to everything
This is a brief description of Karaganov's Russian foreign policy. Yet executive body, on the other hand, is to be defined by "defense policy," which the author focuses on later in the text.
The very beginning of this section is such an interesting example of the distortion of reality by leading Russian analysts, including the author, that it is worth quoting in a longer passage:
”When preemptively (although belatedly) starting a military operation against the West, we, acting on old assumptions, did not expect the enemy to unleash a full war. So we did not use active nuclear deterrence/intimidation tactics from the very outset. And we are still dragging our feet. By so doing we not only doom hundreds of thousands of people in Ukraine (including losses from a plunging quality of life) and tens of thousands of our men to death, but we also do a disservice to the whole world. The aggressor, which is de facto the West, remains unpunished. This clears the way for further aggression.”
For clarity: Karaganov writes that by failing to pre-emptively and sufficiently threaten Ukraine and the wider West with nuclear weapons and collective annihilation at the beginning of the greatest collective aggression in years, Russia has done the world an extraordinary disservice!
When the first Russian tanks entered Ukraine, in violation of all principles of international law, in a classic form of conquest of a weaker state, there should have been stern threats, backed by evidence that any response from the West would be met with a Russian nuclear response. Failure to do so was a injustice to the world and to Ukraine on the part of the Kremlin.
Another excerpt:
“Greater reliance on nuclear deterrence, and accelerated movement up the escalation ladder are designed to convince the West that it has three options regarding the conflict in Ukraine. First, to retreat with dignity, [...]. Second, to be defeated, to flee as it did from Afghanistan, and to face a wave of armed and sometimes thuggish refugees. Or, third, the exact same, plus nuclear strikes on its territory and the accompanying societal disintegration. It is Russian tradition to deliver a crushing defeat to European invaders and then agree on a new order. [...] Our enemies must know that if they do not retreat, the legendary Russian patience will run dry, and the death of each Russian soldier will be paid for with thousands of lives on the other side.”
A recipe for a beautiful world by Sergey Karaganov.
In practice, Karaganov promotes a vision of the world in which the nuclear argument is used in every attempt to advance Russian interests. He says de facto: If you do not agree with our proposals, we will simply drop nuclear bombs on you. Which part do you not understand?
After every threat of annihilation, however, Karaganov's compassionate soul and concern for humanity are activated. "God forbid, but..."; "I hope we will avoid it, but..." usually follows.
Let's move on.
“We should clarify and strengthen the wording and take the corresponding military-technical measures. The main thing is that we demonstrate our readiness and ability to use nuclear weapons in case of extreme necessity.”
The key here remains this "extreme necessity," which can be freely defined. At the very least, it is no longer a nuclear attack on Russian territory, or even a conventional attack on key Russian command centers, but simply an attempt by claimed adversaries to respond to an armed invasion of another country to counter its conquest. Even then, Karaganov would have seen justification for the use of nuclear weapons to protect Russian interests.
In the next act, Russia could annex Kazakhstan, or Georgia, and here too, for the good of the world according to the Russian, the Kremlin should warn other countries from intervening, otherwise it will use nuclear weapons, after all, this is an "extreme necessity" for Russia.
Is it where Karaganov ends? Not at all.
“Russia’s policy should be based on the assumption that NATO is a hostile bloc that has proven its aggressiveness with its previous policy and which is de facto waging a war against Russia. Therefore, any nuclear strikes on NATO, including preemptive ones, are morally and politically justified. This applies primarily to countries that provide the most active support to the Kiev junta.”
So the mere fact of NATO's support for Ukraine is, according to Karaganov's nuclear deterrence doctrine, sufficient to justify nuclear strikes against NATO countries.
Well, but won't NATO respond? The author thinks not, as long as there are no lunatics in charge in Washington.
“If Russia delivers a preemptive retribution strike on any NATO country, the U.S. will not respond unless the White House and Pentagon are populated by madmen who hate their country and are ready to destroy Washington, Houston, Chicago, or Los Angeles for the sake of Poznan, Frankfurt, Bucharest, or Helsinki.”
To put it bluntly, Karaganov believes that Russia should launch a nuclear attack on, say, Poznan or Frankfurt in order to establish a new formula for world governance, which will become a reality if the U.S. does not respond symmetrically to this attack. This would be folly, however, because it would risk a Russian nuclear attack on Los Angeles.
Deluge by the hand of divine Russia
The author is an experienced analyst and is skilled in the terminology and formulation of his thoughts, which may lend credibility to the text. Nevertheless, it is not difficult to see that Karaganov's piece is lined with ideological-religious sectarianism, in which he positions Russia as the cradle of Christianity, a fortified oasis protecting Russia's sheep from the effeminacy and degeneration of the West. The author thinks of Russia as even God himself.
“God struck Sodoma and Gomorrah—mired in abomination and debauchery—with a rain of fire. The modern equivalent: a limited nuclear strike on Europe. Another hint from The Old Testament: to cleanse the world, God unleashed the Great Flood. Our Poseidon nuclear torpedoes can trigger similar floods by tsunamis. Today, most brazenly aggressive states are coastal. The globalist oligarchy and the deep state should not hope to escape as Noah and his pious family did.“
The god in this vision is, of course, Russia. Unfortunately, Karaganov's divine Russia does not anoint her Noah, although several candidates could probably be found, including a favorite from Budapest.
The scholar goes on to urge the Kremlin establishment to take concrete steps to, as he puts it, "ascend to a higher level of nuclear deterrence," such as dropping a second Tsar bomb on Russia's Novaya Zemlya. Recall that the detonation of the first Tsar bomb was the largest explosion ever carried out on Earth by human hand. The 50 megaton bomb caused an explosion more than 3,300 times greater than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. The shock wave circled the earth three times, and the bright light was visible from a distance of more than 1,000 kilometers. One can guess what the environmental consequences of this test were, especially in light of the concern for wild habitat that Karaganov, recall, presents at the beginning of the text. Fortunately the good-natured Russian reiterates that efforts should be made to minimize the environmental impact of this test. Deers on Novaya Zemlya can sleep peacefully. Moreover, he promotes that similar tests of great magnitude to be carried out by the USA.
Interestingly, Karaganov is a proponent of the phenomenon of nuclear proliferation, which he says stabilizes world peace.
“There will be no polycentric and sustainable future world order without nuclear multilateralism.”
Of course, in a moment he selectively designates the countries that should have access to them and those that should not.
“Germany, which started two world wars and committed genocide, must become a legitimate target for destruction by a preemptive strike if it ever tries to lay its hands on a nuclear bomb. However, having forgotten its gruesome history, it is already asking for such punishment by acting as a revanchist state and the main European sponsor of the war in Ukraine. [...] China, with the support of Russia and other World Majority countries, will have every right, and even moral obligation, to punish Japan—whose aggression claimed tens of millions of lives in China and other Asian countries, and which still dreams of revenge and claims Russian territory—if Tokyo moves toward acquisition of nuclear weapons.”
Karaganov, on the other hand, favors the acquisition of nuclear weapons by the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and other countries he considers friendly. He concludes that Russia can even help various countries, such as Brazil and Mexico, to achieve nuclear status if they want it.
This fits in with the concept we outlined in our recent episode describing the coming phenomenon of wider nuclear proliferation. The fact that North Korea has them, for example, favors Russia because it distracts the Americans. If their attention is further distracted, by more authortarian countries having nukes, so much the better. Especially if countries like Iran get their hands on them.
At the same time, of course, Karaganov will find many reasons why North Korea is worthy of possessing nuclear weapons, while Russia's unfriendly countries are not. Japan committed acts of violence 80 years ago? No nuclear warheads from Karaganov for you. It's nothing that the Japanese themselves were the only victims of these weapons, and the atrocities of the Red Army and the Soviet regime as a whole destroyed or robbed the lives of tens of millions of people, many times exceeding the achievements of the Japanese.
Seeking superpower in an era of weakness
To sum up, the "defense policy" that Karaganov describes boils down to nuclear weapons, and in this vision, that is indeed enough. For Karaganov wants a world in which nuclear blackmail determines the entire course of the international balancing act. Every time. Every dispute will end with the ultimate argument of a preemptive nuclear strike to protect Russian interests, which can always be defined as absolutely vital.
Coming to the defense of Sergei Alexandrovich Karaganov and his perspective, one can say that such a position is understandable. Nuclear weapons are the last enclave of Russian proficiency, and it is in the Russian interest to give this instrument the highest possible weight and attention.
Normally, states have a number of instruments at their disposal, such as demography, economic power, natural resources, military, technology, soft power, and so on. The war, however, has contributed to the degradation of the main instruments of the Russian state - the military, the sale of hydrocarbons, a collapsing society, a dwarfed economy. The only factor in which Russia actually continues to dominate, on a par with the US, is its nuclear arsenal.
It is therefore in Russia's interest to reduce every issue to the nuclear denominator. Don't have nuclear weapons? You lose. Have a few dozen of them? If it comes to a larger exchange - you lose. Now let's talk about mutual trade relations. This is how the goal of international cooperation in Karaganov's vision can be summarized in a nutshell.
"Age of Wars" is not the first article in which Karaganov calls for a preventive nuclear attack on European countries. And someone might say - why analyze the words of a madman? The problem is that Karaganov is not considered a madman in Russia. He is the founder and board member of one of Russia's most important analytical journals, Russia in Global Politics, and was an advisor to current President Vladimir Putin for 12 years. He is talking and advicing the ultimate decision-makers in Kremlin policymaking.
Perhaps analyses like Karaganov's are not created to be literally implemented, but to shape the fears of the Kremlin's opponents and thus force them into submission. Perhaps, but surely?
What is sure is that they are worth remembering at times when the West is tempted to seek rationality in the Kremlin's foreign policy. This usually leads to submissiveness, and any submissiveness is exploited.
Karaganov's goal is also inevitably to shape the collective perception of the countries of the Global South, or the world majority. In the author's eyes, the world is beginning to resemble the evoked "Sodoma and Gomorrah," and the rotten and effeminate West is responsible.
This is a constant feature of Russian propaganda. As an alternative, Russia is portrayed as a veritable Promised Land of traditionalists, which some celebrities and, worse, intellectuals in the West are catching on to. Recall, for example, Tucker Carlson's admiration for Moscow's central districts at a time when the rest of the country resembles a medieval brothel without basic sanitation in many places.
The Russian alternative, in practice, is a country of exploitation of the poorest strata of society, pervasive corruption, abysmal social services, and a censorship and repression apparatus that the Big Brother-led government of Oceania in the Orwellian novel 1984 could be jealous of.
The West has its problems, often serious ones, but comparing the two systems of governance is grotesque. The scale of the difference in values and way of life is evidenced by the fact that Ukrainians are literally ready to die to break out of the "Ruski mir."
The democracies, whose twilight Karaganov heralds, tend to fall into an illusion in which it seems to us that our system is constantly in a deep crisis. Every day we see reports on television or the Internet about another stock market collapse, a social problem, or mass layoffs. At the same time, the media warn of potential threats - "the Russians are rebuilding their military potential", "sanctions are not working", or "the Chinese have successfully tested the Dong Feng missile".
This transparency reveals our problems, which makes us anxious and fatalistic, but it is also an incredibly important part of the success of democracy and its natural self-correcting process. From the perspective of everyday life, you may not see this, but if you take a few steps back, you will see that in a longer period it is a self-perfecting system that, under the collective pressure of the public and the media, is constantly going through successive phases of “problem-repair-problem-repair".
Meanwhile, authoritarian regimes do exactly the opposite - they hide and distort data to prove their legitimacy and support the power of those at the top of the social hierarchy. This is aided by a centrally controlled media that shapes the reality needed at any given moment. With his text, Sergei Alexandrovich Karaganov is doing exactly the same thing - shaping the perception of larger collectives: the Russians themselves, or even trying to manipulate the people of the Global South. He does this for the needs - in practice - of a narrow elite that lives off the current system and that is constantly threatened as a result of the attempted conquest of Ukraine.
https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/an-age-of-wars-article-one/
https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/an-age-of-wars-what-is-to-be-done/
